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Association between high blood pressure and long term cardiovascular events in young adults: systematic review and meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:To evaluate and quantify the future risk of cardiovascular events in young adults with high blood pressure. DESIGN:Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES:Medline, Embase, and Web of Science were searched from inception to 6 March 2020. Relative risks were pooled using a random effects model and expressed with 95% confidence intervals. Absolute risk difference was calculated. Dose-response relations between blood pressure and individual outcomes were assessed by a restricted cubic spline model. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES:Studies were selected that investigated the adverse outcomes of adults aged 18-45 with raised blood pressure. The primary study outcome was a composite of total cardiovascular events. Coronary heart disease, stroke, and all cause mortality were examined as secondary outcomes. RESULTS:Seventeen observational cohorts consisting of approximately 4.5 million young adults were included in the analysis. The average follow-up was 14.7 years. Young adults with normal blood pressure had increased risk of cardiovascular events compared with those with optimal blood pressure (relative risk 1.19, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.31; risk difference 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.16 to 0.61 per 1000 person years). A graded, progressive association was found between blood pressure categories and increased risk of cardiovascular events (high normal blood pressure: relative risk 1.35, 95% confidence interval 1.22 to 1.49; risk difference 0.69, 95% confidence interval 0.43 to 0.97 per 1000 person years; grade 1 hypertension: 1.92, 1.68 to 2.19; 1.81, 1.34 to 2.34; grade 2 hypertension: 3.15, 2.31 to 4.29; 4.24, 2.58 to 6.48). Similar results were observed for coronary heart disease and stroke. Generally, the population attributable fraction for cardiovascular events associated with raised blood pressure was 23.8% (95% confidence interval 17.9% to 28.8%). The number needed to treat for one year to prevent one cardiovascular event was estimated at 2672 (95% confidence interval 1639 to 6250) for participants with normal blood pressure, 1450 (1031 to 2326) for those with high normal blood pressure, 552 (427 to 746) for those with grade 1 hypertension, and 236 (154 to 388) for those with grade 2 hypertension. CONCLUSIONS:Young adults with raised blood pressure might have a slightly increased risk of cardiovascular events in later life. Because the evidence for blood pressure lowering is limited, active interventions should be cautious and warrant further investigation.

SUBMITTER: Luo D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7478061 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Association between high blood pressure and long term cardiovascular events in young adults: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Luo Dongling D Cheng Yunjiu Y Zhang Haifeng H Ba Mingchuan M Chen Pengyuan P Li Hezhi H Chen Kequan K Sha Weihong W Zhang Caojin C Chen Hao H

BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 20200909

<h4>Objective</h4>To evaluate and quantify the future risk of cardiovascular events in young adults with high blood pressure.<h4>Design</h4>Systematic review and meta-analysis.<h4>Data sources</h4>Medline, Embase, and Web of Science were searched from inception to 6 March 2020. Relative risks were pooled using a random effects model and expressed with 95% confidence intervals. Absolute risk difference was calculated. Dose-response relations between blood pressure and individual outcomes were ass ...[more]

PMID: 32907799

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Project description:ImportanceLittle is known regarding the association between level of blood pressure (BP) in young adulthood and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events by middle age.ObjectiveTo assess whether young adults who developed hypertension, defined by the 2017 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) BP guideline, before age 40 years have higher risk for CVD events compared with those who maintained normal BP.Design, setting, and participantsAnalyses were conducted in the prospective cohort Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, started in March 1985. CARDIA enrolled 5115 African American and white participants aged 18 to 30 years from 4 US field centers (Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and Oakland, California). Outcomes were available through August 2015.ExposuresUsing the highest BP measured from the first examination to the examination closest to, but not after, age 40 years, each participant was categorized as having normal BP (untreated systolic BP [SBP] <120 mm Hg and diastolic BP [DBP] <80 mm Hg; n = 2574); elevated BP (untreated SBP 120-129 mm Hg and DBP <80 mm Hg; n = 445); stage 1 hypertension (untreated SBP 130-139 mm Hg or DBP 80-89 mm Hg; n = 1194); or stage 2 hypertension (SBP ≥140 mm Hg, DBP ≥90 mm Hg, or taking antihypertensive medication; n = 638).Main outcomes and measuresCVD events: fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure, stroke, transient ischemic attack, or intervention for peripheral artery disease (PAD).ResultsThe final cohort included 4851 adults (mean age when follow-up for outcomes began, 35.7 years [SD, 3.6]; 2657 women [55%]; 2441 African American [50%]; 206 taking antihypertensive medication [4%]). Over a median follow-up of 18.8 years, 228 incident CVD events occurred (CHD, 109; stroke, 63; heart failure, 48; PAD, 8). CVD incidence rates for normal BP, elevated BP, stage 1 hypertension, and stage 2 hypertension were 1.37 (95% CI, 1.07-1.75), 2.74 (95% CI, 1.78-4.20), 3.15 (95% CI, 2.47-4.02), and 8.04 (95% CI, 6.45-10.03) per 1000 person-years, respectively. After multivariable adjustment, hazard ratios for CVD events for elevated BP, stage 1 hypertension, and stage 2 hypertension vs normal BP were 1.67 (95% CI, 1.01-2.77), 1.75 (95% CI, 1.22-2.53), and 3.49 (95% CI, 2.42-5.05), respectively.Conclusions and relevanceAmong young adults, those with elevated blood pressure, stage 1 hypertension, and stage 2 hypertension before age 40 years, as defined by the blood pressure classification in the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines, had significantly higher risk for subsequent cardiovascular disease events compared with those with normal blood pressure before age 40 years. The ACC/AHA blood pressure classification system may help identify young adults at higher risk for cardiovascular disease events.

Project description:ImportanceAmong young adults, the association of the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) High Blood Pressure Clinical Practice Guidelines with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) later in life is uncertain.ObjectiveTo determine the association of blood pressure categories before age 40 years with risk of CVD later in life.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cohort study from the Korean National Health Insurance Service consisted of 2 488 101 adults aged 20 through 39 years with blood pressure measurements taken twice from 2002 through 2005. Starting from January 1, 2006, participants were followed up until the date of CVD diagnosis, death, or December 31, 2015.ExposuresParticipants were categorized by blood pressure readings: normal (systolic, <120 mm Hg; diastolic, <80 mm Hg), elevated (sytolic, 120-129 mm Hg; diastolic, <80 mm Hg), stage 1 hypertension (systolic, 130-139 mm Hg; diastolic, 80-89 mm Hg), and stage 2 hypertension (systolic, ≥140 mm Hg; diastolic, ≥90 mm Hg).Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was CVD defined as 2 or more days of hospitalization due to CVD or death due to CVD. The secondary outcomes were coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.ResultsThe study population consisted of 2 488 101 participants (median age, 31 years [interquartile range, 27-36 years], 789 870 women [31.7%]). A total of 44 813 CVD events were observed during a median follow-up duration of 10 years. Men with baseline stage 1 hypertension compared with those with normal blood pressure had higher risk of CVD (incidence, 215 vs 164 per 100 000 person-years; difference, 51 per 100 000 person-years [95% CI, 48-55]; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.25 [95% CI, 1.21-1.28]), CHD (incidence, 134 vs 103 per 100 000 person-years; difference, 31 per 100 000 person-years [95% CI, 28-33]; adjusted HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.19-1.27]), and stroke (incidence, 90 vs 67 per 100 000 person-years; difference, 23 per 100 000 person-years [95% CI, 21-26]; adjusted HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.25-1.36]). Women with baseline stage 1 hypertension compared with those with normal blood pressure had increased risk of CVD (incidence, 131 vs 91 per 100 000 person-years; difference, 40 per 100 000 person-years [95% CI, 35-45]; adjusted HR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.21-1.34]), CHD (incidence, 56 vs 42 per 100 000 person-years; difference, 14 per 100 000 person-years [95% CI, 11-18]; adjusted HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.08-1.25]), and stroke (incidence, 79 vs 51 per 100 000 person-years; difference, 28 per 100 000 person-years [95% CI, 24-32]; adjusted HR [1.37, 95% CI, 1.29-1.46]). Results for state 2 hypertension were consistent.Conclusions and relevanceAmong Korean young adults, stage 1 and stage 2 hypertension, compared with normal blood pressure, were associated with increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular disease events. Young adults with hypertension, defined by the 2017 ACC/AHA criteria, may be at increased risk of cardiovascular disease.

Project description:ImportanceLong-term cumulative systolic blood pressure (SBP) is significantly associated with increased rates of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) development independent of single SBP levels. However, published ASCVD risk prediction algorithms only include currently measured SBP.ObjectiveTo determine whether including long-term (5- and 10-year) cumulative SBP in risk equations improves the predictive ability compared with single SBP measurements.Design, setting, and participantsAdults aged 45 to 65 years at the time of risk estimation with at least 20 years of follow-up (5 and 10 years prior to risk estimation and 10 years of event follow-up). The Lifetime Risk Pooling Project included data from the following cohorts: Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, and Framingham Heart Study (both the original and offspring).ExposuresTen-year ASCVD risk, calculated using the approach of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association 10-year ASCVD risk equations, first with current SBP and then substituting 5- and 10-year cumulative SBP levels.Main outcomes and measuresIncident ASCVD events that occurred over 10 years of follow-up, compared with the predicted risks, using the C statistic, net reclassification index at event rate, and the integrated discrimination index.ResultsThis study included 11 767 participants with a mean (SD) age of 59.1 (4.7) years at risk estimation. A total of 6873 participants (58%) were women, and 1499 (13%) were African American. In the 10 years of follow-up from risk estimation, 1887 participants (16%) had an ASCVD event. There were no significant improvements in the C statistic when including 5- or 10-year cumulative SBP. However, the addition of cumulative SBP resulted in significant improvements in the net reclassification index at event rate (10-year net reclassification index for men, 0.04 [95% CI, 0.02-0.06]; 10-year net reclassification index for women, 0.03 [95% CI, 0.01-0.06]) and the relative integrated discrimination index (10-year relative integrated discrimination index for men, 0.12; 10-year relative integrated discrimination index for women, 0.10).Conclusions and relevanceUsing long-term measures of cumulative blood pressure, instead of single measurements, can modestly improve the ability of cardiovascular disease risk prediction models to correctly classify individuals in terms of their risk for cardiovascular disease.

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Association between high blood pressure and long term cardiovascular events in young adults: systematic review and meta-analysis.

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Association between high blood pressure and long term cardiovascular events in young adults: systematic review and meta-analysis.

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