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Present and future climatic suitability for dengue fever in Africa.

ABSTRACT: The number of dengue fever incidence and its distribution has increased considerably in recent years in Africa. However, due to inadequate research at the continental level, there is a limited understanding regarding the current and future spatial distribution of the main vector, the mosquitoAedes aegypti, and the associated dengue risk due to climate change. To fill this gap we used reported dengue fever incidences, the presence of Ae. aegypti, and bioclimatic variables in a species distribution model to assess the current and future (2050 and 2070) climatically suitable areas. High temperatures and with high moisture levels are climatically suitable for the distribution of Ae. aegypti related to dengue fever. Under the current climate scenario indicated that 15.2% of the continent is highly suitable for dengue fever outbreaks. We predict that climatically suitable areas for Ae. aegypti related to dengue fever incidences in eastern, central and western part of Africa will increase in the future and will expand further towards higher elevations. Our projections provide evidence for the changing continental threat of vector-borne diseases and can guide public health policy decisions in Africa to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue fever risk.

SUBMITTER: Sintayehu DW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7480615 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Present and future climatic suitability for dengue fever in Africa.

Sintayehu Dejene W DW Tassie Nega N De Boer Willem F WF

Infection ecology & epidemiology 20200619 1

The number of dengue fever incidence and its distribution has increased considerably in recent years in Africa. However, due to inadequate research at the continental level, there is a limited understanding regarding the current and future spatial distribution of the main vector, the mosquito<i>Aedes aegypti</i>, and the associated dengue risk due to climate change. To fill this gap we used reported dengue fever incidences, the presence of <i>Ae. aegypti</i>, and bioclimatic variables in a speci ...[more]

PMID: 32939230

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Project description:Dengue fever disease (DFD) which is caused by four antigenically distinct dengue viruses (DENV) presents a global health threat, with tropical and subtropical regions at a greater risk. The paucity of epidemiological data on dengue in West African subregion endangers efforts geared toward disease control and prevention. A systematic search of DFD prevalence, incidence, and DENV-infected Aedes in West Africa was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, African Index Medicus, and Google Scholar in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. A total of 58 human prevalence studies involving 35,748 people from 8 countries were identified. Two incidence and six DENV-infected studies were also reviewed. Nigeria and Burkina Faso contributed the majority of the prevalence studies which spanned between 1968 and 2018, with a considerable variation in coverage among the countries reviewed in this study. An average prevalence of 20.97% was observed across both general prevalence and acute DENV infection study categories, ranging between 0.02% and 93%. The majority of these studies were conducted in acute febrile patients with a prevalence range of 0.02-93% while 19% (n = 11) of all studies were general population-based studies and reported a prevalence range of 17.2-75.8%. DENV-infected Aedes aegypti were reported in four out of the five countries with published reports; with DENV-2 found circulating in Cape Verde, Senegal, and Burkina Faso while DENV-3 and DENV-4 were also reported in Senegal and Cape Verde, respectively. High prevalence of DFD in human populations and the occurrence of DENV-infected A. aegypti have been reported in West Africa, even though weaknesses in study design were identified. Epidemiological data from most countries and population in the subregion were scarce or non-existent. This study highlights the epidemic risk of DFD in West Africa, and the need for research and surveillance to be prioritized to fill the data gap required to enact effective control measures.

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Present and future climatic suitability for dengue fever in Africa.

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Present and future climatic suitability for dengue fever in Africa.

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