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Future risk of dengue fever to workforce and industry through global supply chain.

ABSTRACT: The primary vector of the dengue fever virus, the Aedes aegypti mosquito, is distributed across the tropical and sub-tropical latitudes; however, the area at risk of infection has been expanding steadily. This study aimed to identify the industries most vulnerable to the effects of dengue fever by 2030. The assessment was done by considering the international supply chain, with aspects such as the labor intensity, and the relevant geographical and socioeconomic aspects being taken into account. In addition, multi-regional input-output tables were employed to analyze the ripple effects of productivity losses resulting from workers contracting the disease. The results indicate that more than 10% of the workers involved in the supply chain of all the major industries in the United States (USA), China, Japan, and Germany could be considered at risk of contracting dengue fever by 2030. Moreover, the risk was even higher in India and Brazil, namely, more than 70%. The effect of widespread dengue fever infection could influence industrial activities severely, not only in the regions most at risk (India and Brazil) but also in the other regions (USA, Japan, and Germany). Labor-intensive industries, such as agriculture, fisheries, and the distribution sector are particularly at risk and will have to consider appropriate contingency measures. It is recommended that the downstream side of the supply chain, the industries in the USA, Japan, and Germany, supports the introduction of worker's health management system against the infectious disease into their business partners. This study employed limited data and only estimated the possible effects of the disease by 2030. Further comprehensive analysis is required with more data modeled for the future to verify and enhance the reliability of the present results.

SUBMITTER: Nakano K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7089289 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Future risk of dengue fever to workforce and industry through global supply chain.

Nakano Katsuyuki K

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 20170316 3

The primary vector of the dengue fever virus, the <i>Aedes aegypti</i> mosquito, is distributed across the tropical and sub-tropical latitudes; however, the area at risk of infection has been expanding steadily. This study aimed to identify the industries most vulnerable to the effects of dengue fever by 2030. The assessment was done by considering the international supply chain, with aspects such as the labor intensity, and the relevant geographical and socioeconomic aspects being taken into ac ...[more]

PMID: 32214871

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Project description:IntroductionWe found no comprehensive studies on the location of transnational tobacco and leaf company (TTLC) subsidiaries (business entities they control) or the consequences of their presence on health policy.Aims and methodsHere we assess (1) the global reach of TTLCs by mapping their tobacco growing and manufacturing subsidiaries and (2) the relationship between in-country presence of the tobacco industry and their power and interference. Data on subsidiaries were collated through systematic searching for countries' supply chain activities in documents and web pages. Cross-sectional multiple regression analysis was used to assess the association between the number of agricultural and manufacturing TTLCs and the Tobacco Industry Interference score, and the degree to which these were mediated by tobacco control, good governance, and economic importance of tobacco.ResultsTTLC supply chain activity had global reach. As the number of TTLCs with tobacco growing and manufacturing activities rose, interference increased significantly. Interference was associated with poorer tobacco control. The association with more TTLCs undertaking final product manufacturing was related to higher-value tobacco exports but was not related to tobacco making a bigger contribution to the economy.ConclusionsTTLCs continue to control the global tobacco supply chain through their globe-spanning subsidiaries. The presence of TTLCs in a country is associated with political interference. Countries should consider their participation in the tobacco supply chain alongside the understanding that they are likely to cede political power to TTLCs, potentially undermining the health of their populations.ImplicationsTobacco control research has traditionally concentrated on the demand side of tobacco. Our results lend support to calls for more research on the supply of tobacco. Governments should require tobacco companies to provide detailed, up-to-date information in an easily accessible format on in-country supply chain activities. Policymakers should take the likelihood of political interference in health and environmental policy into account when making decisions about foreign direct investment offered by the tobacco industry.

Project description:In this paper, we study the topological properties of the global supply chain network in terms of its degree distribution, clustering coefficient, degree-degree correlation, bow-tie structure, and community structure to test the efficient supply chain propositions proposed by E. J.S. Hearnshaw et al. The global supply chain data in the year 2017 are constructed by collecting various company data from the web site of Standard & Poor's Capital IQ platform. The in- and out-degree distributions are characterized by a power law of the form of γin = 2.42 and γout = 2.11. The clustering coefficient decays [Formula: see text] with an exponent βk = 0.46. The nodal degree-degree correlations 〈knn(k)〉 indicates the absence of assortativity. The bow-tie structure of giant weakly connected component (GWCC) reveals that the OUT component is the largest and consists 41.1% of all firms. The giant strong connected component (GSCC) is comprised of 16.4% of all firms. We observe that upstream or downstream firms are located a few steps away from the GSCC. Furthermore, we uncover the community structures of the network and characterize them according to their location and industry classification. We observe that the largest community consists of the consumer discretionary sector based mainly in the United States (US). These firms belong to the OUT component in the bow-tie structure of the global supply chain network. Finally, we confirm the validity of Hearnshaw et al.'s efficient supply chain propositions, namely Proposition S1 (short path length), Proposition S2 (power-law degree distribution), Proposition S3 (high clustering coefficient), Proposition S4 ("fit-gets-richer" growth mechanism), Proposition S5 (truncation of power-law degree distribution), and Proposition S7 (community structure with overlapping boundaries) regarding the global supply chain network. While the original propositions S1 just mentioned a short path length, we found the short path from the GSCC to IN and OUT by analyzing the bow-tie structure. Therefore, the short path length in the bow-tie structure is a conceptual addition to the original propositions of Hearnshaw.

Project description:BackgroundIn recent years, frequent outbreaks of dengue fever (DF) have become an increasingly serious public health issue in China, especially in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with fast socioeconomic developments. Previous studies mainly focused on the historic DF epidemics, their influencing factors, and the prediction of DF risks. However, the future risks of this disease under both different socioeconomic development and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios remain little understood.Methodology and principal findingsIn this study, a spatial dataset of gross domestic product (GDP), population density, and land use and land coverage (LULC) in 2050 and 2070 was obtained by simulation based on the different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), and the future climatic data derived from the RCP scenarios were integrated into the Maxent models for predicting the future DF risk in the PRD region. Among all the variables included in this study, socioeconomics factors made the dominant contribution (83% or so) during simulating the current spatial distribution of the DF epidemics in the PRD region. Moreover, the spatial distribution of future DF risk identified by the climatic and socioeconomic (C&S) variables models was more detailed than that of the climatic variables models. Along with global warming and socioeconomic development, the zones with DF high and moderate risk will continue to increase, and the population at high and moderate risk will reach a maximum of 48.47 million (i.e., 63.78% of the whole PRD) under the RCP 4.5/SSP2 in 2070.ConclusionsThe increasing DF risk may be an inevitable public health threat in the PRD region with rapid socioeconomic developments and global warming in the future. Our results suggest that curbs in emissions and more sustainable socioeconomic growth targets offer hope for limiting the future impact of dengue, and effective prevention and control need to continue to be strengthened at the junction of Guangzhou-Foshan, north-central Zhongshan city, and central-western Dongguan city. Our study provides useful clues for relevant hygienic authorities making targeted adapting strategies for this disease.

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Future risk of dengue fever to workforce and industry through global supply chain.

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Future risk of dengue fever to workforce and industry through global supply chain.

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