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Estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 epidemiological data in Nigeria using statistical regression analysis.

ABSTRACT: Following the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak, number of studies have been conducted to curtail the global spread of the virus by identifying epidemiological changes of the disease through developing statistical models, estimation of the basic reproduction number, displaying the daily reports of confirmed and deaths cases, which are closely related to the present study. Reliable and comprehensive estimation method of the epidemiological data is required to understand the actual situation of fatalities caused by the epidemic. Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is one of the cardinal epidemiological parameters that adequately explains epidemiology of the outbreak of a disease. In the present study, we employed two statistical regression models such as the linear and polynomial models in order to estimate the CFR, based on the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria (44?days since first reported COVID-19 death). The estimate of the CFR was determined based on cumulative number of confirmed cases and deaths reported from 23 March to 30 April 2020. The results from the linear model estimated that the CFR was 3.11% (95% CI: 2.59-3.80%) with R 2 value of 90% and p-value of <0.0001. The findings from the polynomial model suggest that the CFR associated with the Nigerian outbreak is 3.0% and may range from 2.23 to 3.42% with R 2 value of 93% and p-value of <0.0001. Therefore, the polynomial regression model with the higher R 2 value fits the dataset well and provides better estimate of CFR for the reported COVID-19 cases in Nigeria.

SUBMITTER: Suleiman AA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7482605 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 epidemiological data in Nigeria using statistical regression analysis.

Suleiman Ahmad Abubakar AA Suleiman Aminu A Abdullahi Usman Aliyu UA Suleiman Suleiman Abubakar SA

Biosafety and health 20200910 1

Following the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak, numbers of studies have been conducted to curtail the global spread of the virus by identifying epidemiological changes of the disease through developing statistical models, estimation of the basic reproduction number, displaying the daily reports of confirmed and deaths cases, which are closely related to the present study. Reliable and comprehensive estimation method of the epidemiological data is required to understand the actual situation of fata ...[more]

PMID: 32935084

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Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the COVID-19 case-fatality rate (CFR) globally.DesignPublicly available register-based ecological study.SettingTwo hundred and nine countries/territories in the world.ParticipantsAggregated data including 10 445 656 confirmed COVID-19 cases.Primary and secondary outcome measuresCOVID-19 CFR and crude cause-specific death rate were calculated using country-level data from the Our World in Data website.ResultsThe average of country/territory-specific COVID-19 CFR is about 2%-3% worldwide and higher than previously reported at 0.7%-1.3%. A doubling in size of a population is associated with a 0.48% (95% CI 0.25% to 0.70%) increase in COVID-19 CFR, and a doubling in the proportion of female smokers is associated with a 0.55% (95% CI 0.09% to 1.02%) increase in COVID-19 CFR. The open testing policies are associated with a 2.23% (95% CI 0.21% to 4.25%) decrease in CFR. The strictness of anti-COVID-19 measures was not statistically significantly associated with CFR overall, but the higher Stringency Index was associated with higher CFR in higher-income countries with active testing policies (regression coefficient beta=0.14, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.27). Inverse associations were found between cardiovascular disease death rate and diabetes prevalence and CFR.ConclusionThe association between population size and COVID-19 CFR may imply the healthcare strain and lower treatment efficiency in countries with large populations. The observed association between smoking in women and COVID-19 CFR might be due to the finding that the proportion of female smokers reflected broadly the income level of a country. When testing is warranted and healthcare resources are sufficient, strict quarantine and/or lockdown measures might result in excess deaths in underprivileged populations. Spatial dependence and temporal trends in the data should be taken into account in global joint strategy and/or policy making against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dataset Information

Estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 epidemiological data in Nigeria using statistical regression analysis.

Publications

Estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 epidemiological data in Nigeria using statistical regression analysis.

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