Dataset Information

Estimation of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aims

Realizing the transmission potential and the magnitude of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) aids public health monitoring, strategies, and preparation. Two fundamental parameters, the basic reproduction number (R ₀) and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19, help in this understanding process. The objective of this study was to estimate the R ₀ and CFR of COVID-19 and assess whether the parameters vary in different regions of the world.

Methods

We carried out a systematic review to find the reported estimates of the R ₀ and the CFR in articles from international databases between January 1 and August 31, 2020. Random-effect models and Forest plots were implemented to evaluate the mean effect size of R ₀ and the CFR. Furthermore, R ₀ and CFR of the studies were quantified based on geographic location, the tests/thousand population, and the median population age of the countries where the studies were conducted. To assess statistical heterogeneity among the selected articles, the I ² statistic and the Cochran's Q test were used.

Results

Forty-five studies involving R ₀ and 34 studies involving CFR were included. The pooled estimation of R ₀ was 2.69 (95% CI: 2.40, 2.98), and that of the CFR was 2.67 (2.25, 3.13). The CFR in different regions of the world varied significantly, from 2.49 (2.08, 2.94) in Asia to 3.40 (2.81, 4.04) in North America. We observed higher mean CFR values for the countries with lower tests (3.15 vs 2.16) and greater median population age (3.13 vs 2.27). However, R ₀ did not vary significantly in different regions of the world.

Conclusions

An R ₀ of 2.69 and a CFR of 2.67 indicate the severity of the COVID-19. Although R ₀ and CFR may vary over time, space, and demographics, we recommend considering these figures in control and prevention measures.

SUBMITTER: Ahammed T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8093857 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundWhen a new disease such starts to spread, the commonly asked questions are how deadly is it? and how many people are likely to die of this outbreak? The World Health Organization (WHO) announced in a press conference on January 29, 2020 that the death rate of COVID-19 was 2% on the case fatality rate (CFR). It was underestimated assuming no lag days from symptom onset to deaths while many CFR formulas have been proposed, the estimation on Bays theorem is worthy of interpretation. Hence, it is hypothesized that the over-loaded burdens of treating patients and capacities to contain the outbreak (LSBHRS) may increase the CFR.MethodsWe downloaded COVID-19 outbreak numbers from January 21 to February 14, 2020, in countries/regions on a daily basis from Github that contains information on confirmed cases in >30 Chinese locations and other countries/regions. The pros and cons were compared among the 5 formula of CFR, including [A] deaths/confirmed; [B] deaths/(deaths + recovered); [C] deaths/(cases x days ago); [D] Bayes estimation based on [A] and the outbreak (LSBHRS) in each country/region; and [E] Bayes estimation based on [C] deaths/(cases x days ago). The coefficients of variance (CV = the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean) were applied to measure the relative variability for each CFR. A dashboard was developed for daily display of the CFR across each region.ResultsThe Bayes based on (A)[D] has the lowest CV (=0.10) followed by the deaths/confirmed (=0.11) [A], deaths/(deaths + recoveries) (=0.42) [B], Bayes based on (C) (=0.49) [E], and deaths/(cases x days ago) (=0.59) [C]. All final CFRs will be equal using the formula (from, A to E). A dashboard was developed for the daily reporting of the CFR. The CFR (3.7%) greater than the prior CFR of 2.2% was evident in LSBHRS, increasing the CFR. A dashboard was created to present the CFRs on COVID-19.ConclusionWe suggest examining both trends of the Bayes based on both deaths/(cases 7 days ago) and deaths/confirmed cases as a reference to the final CFR. An app developed for displaying the provisional CFR with the 2 CFR trends can improve the underestimated CFR reported by WHO and media.