Dataset Information

The responsiveness of criminal networks to intentional attacks: Disrupting darknet drug trade.

ABSTRACT: Physical, technological, and social networks are often at risk of intentional attack. Despite the wide-spanning importance of network vulnerability, very little is known about how criminal networks respond to attacks or whether intentional attacks affect criminal activity in the long-run. To assess criminal network responsiveness, we designed an empirically-grounded agent-based simulation using population-level network data on 16,847 illicit drug exchanges between 7,295 users of an active darknet drug market and statistical methods for simulation analysis. We consider three attack strategies: targeted attacks that delete structurally integral vertices, weak link attacks that delete large numbers of weakly connected vertices, and signal attacks that saturate the network with noisy signals. Results reveal that, while targeted attacks are effective when conducted at a large-scale, weak link and signal attacks deter more potential drug transactions and buyers when only a small portion of the network is attacked. We also find that intentional attacks affect network behavior. When networks are attacked, actors grow more cautious about forging ties, connecting less frequently and only to trustworthy alters. Operating in tandem, these two processes undermine long-term network robustness and increase network vulnerability to future attacks.

SUBMITTER: Duxbury S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7482914 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The responsiveness of criminal networks to intentional attacks: Disrupting darknet drug trade.

Duxbury Scott S Haynie Dana L DL

PloS one 20200910 9

Physical, technological, and social networks are often at risk of intentional attack. Despite the wide-spanning importance of network vulnerability, very little is known about how criminal networks respond to attacks or whether intentional attacks affect criminal activity in the long-run. To assess criminal network responsiveness, we designed an empirically-grounded agent-based simulation using population-level network data on 16,847 illicit drug exchanges between 7,295 users of an active darkne ...[more]

PMID: 32911485

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Project description:Compared to other types of social networks, criminal networks present particularly hard challenges, due to their strong resilience to disruption, which poses severe hurdles to Law-Enforcement Agencies (LEAs). Herein, we borrow methods and tools from Social Network Analysis (SNA) to (i) unveil the structure and organization of Sicilian Mafia gangs, based on two real-world datasets, and (ii) gain insights as to how to efficiently reduce the Largest Connected Component (LCC) of two networks derived from them. Mafia networks have peculiar features in terms of the links distribution and strength, which makes them very different from other social networks, and extremely robust to exogenous perturbations. Analysts also face difficulties in collecting reliable datasets that accurately describe the gangs' internal structure and their relationships with the external world, which is why earlier studies are largely qualitative, elusive and incomplete. An added value of our work is the generation of two real-world datasets, based on raw data extracted from juridical acts, relating to a Mafia organization that operated in Sicily during the first decade of 2000s. We created two different networks, capturing phone calls and physical meetings, respectively. Our analysis simulated different intervention procedures: (i) arresting one criminal at a time (sequential node removal); and (ii) police raids (node block removal). In both the sequential, and the node block removal intervention procedures, the Betweenness centrality was the most effective strategy in prioritizing the nodes to be removed. For instance, when targeting the top 5% nodes with the largest Betweenness centrality, our simulations suggest a reduction of up to 70% in the size of the LCC. We also identified that, due the peculiar type of interactions in criminal networks (namely, the distribution of the interactions' frequency), no significant differences exist between weighted and unweighted network analysis. Our work has significant practical applications for perturbing the operations of criminal and terrorist networks.

Project description:BackgroundSince 1998 the serious public health problem in South East Asia of counterfeit artesunate, containing no or subtherapeutic amounts of the active antimalarial ingredient, has led to deaths from untreated malaria, reduced confidence in this vital drug, large economic losses for the legitimate manufacturers, and concerns that artemisinin resistance might be engendered.Methods and findingsWith evidence of a deteriorating situation, a group of police, criminal analysts, chemists, palynologists, and health workers collaborated to determine the source of these counterfeits under the auspices of the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL) and the Western Pacific World Health Organization Regional Office. A total of 391 samples of genuine and counterfeit artesunate collected in Vietnam (75), Cambodia (48), Lao PDR (115), Myanmar (Burma) (137) and the Thai/Myanmar border (16), were available for analysis. Sixteen different fake hologram types were identified. High-performance liquid chromatography and/or mass spectrometry confirmed that all specimens thought to be counterfeit (195/391, 49.9%) on the basis of packaging contained no or small quantities of artesunate (up to 12 mg per tablet as opposed to approximately 50 mg per genuine tablet). Chemical analysis demonstrated a wide diversity of wrong active ingredients, including banned pharmaceuticals, such as metamizole, and safrole, a carcinogen, and raw material for manufacture of methylenedioxymethamphetamine ('ecstasy'). Evidence from chemical, mineralogical, biological, and packaging analysis suggested that at least some of the counterfeits were manufactured in southeast People's Republic of China. This evidence prompted the Chinese Government to act quickly against the criminal traders with arrests and seizures.ConclusionsAn international multi-disciplinary group obtained evidence that some of the counterfeit artesunate was manufactured in China, and this prompted a criminal investigation. International cross-disciplinary collaborations may be appropriate in the investigation of other serious counterfeit medicine public health problems elsewhere, but strengthening of international collaborations and forensic and drug regulatory authority capacity will be required.

Dataset Information

The responsiveness of criminal networks to intentional attacks: Disrupting darknet drug trade.

Publications

The responsiveness of criminal networks to intentional attacks: Disrupting darknet drug trade.

Similar Datasets

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