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Identification of Predictors for Hemorrhagic Transformation in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke After Endovascular Therapy Using the Decision Tree Model.

ABSTRACT: Purpose:This study aimed to identify independent predictors for the risk of hemorrhagic transformation (HT) in arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) patients. Methods:Consecutive patients with AIS due to large artery occlusion in the anterior circulation treated with mechanical thrombectomy (MT) were enrolled in a tertiary stroke center. Demographic and medical history data, admission lab results, and Circle of Willis (CoW) variations were collected from all patients. Results:Altogether, 90 patients were included in this study; among them, 34 (37.8%) had HT after MT. The final pruned decision tree (DT) model consisted of collateral score and platelet to lymphocyte ratios (PLR) as predictors. Confusion matrix analysis showed that 82.2% (74/90) were correctly classified by the model (sensitivity, 79.4%; specificity, 83.9%). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 81.7%. The DT model demonstrated that participants with collateral scores of 2-4 had a 75.0% probability of HT. For participants with collateral scores of 0-1, if PLR at admission was <302, participants had a 13.0% probability of HT; otherwise, participants had an 75.0% probability of HT. The final adjusted multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that collateral score 0-1 (OR, 10.186; 95% CI, 3.029-34.248; p < 0.001), PLR (OR, 1.005; 95% CI, 1.001-1.010; p = 0.040), and NIHSS at admission (OR, 1.106; 95% CI, 1.014-1.205; p = 0.022) could be used to predict HT. The AUC for the model was 0.855, with 83.3% (75/90) were correctly classified (sensitivity, 79.4%; specificity, 87.3%). Less patients with HT achieved independent outcomes (mRS, 0-2) in 90 days (20.6% vs. 64.3%, p < 0.001). Rate of poor outcomes (mRS, 4-6) was significantly higher in patients with HT (73.5% vs. 19.6%; p < 0.001). Conclusion:Both the DT model and multivariate logistic regression model confirmed that the lower collateral status and the higher PLR were significantly associated with an increased risk for HT in AIS patients after MT. PLR may be one of the cost-effective and practical predictors for HT. Further prospective multicenter studies are needed to validate our findings.

SUBMITTER: Feng X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7490069 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Identification of Predictors for Hemorrhagic Transformation in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke After Endovascular Therapy Using the Decision Tree Model.

Feng Xin X Ye Gengfan G Cao Ruoyao R Qi Peng P Lu Jun J Chen Juan J Wang Daming D

Clinical interventions in aging 20200908

<h4>Purpose</h4>This study aimed to identify independent predictors for the risk of hemorrhagic transformation (HT) in arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) patients.<h4>Methods</h4>Consecutive patients with AIS due to large artery occlusion in the anterior circulation treated with mechanical thrombectomy (MT) were enrolled in a tertiary stroke center. Demographic and medical history data, admission lab results, and Circle of Willis (CoW) variations were collected from all patients.<h4>Results</h4>Alto ...[more]

PMID: 32982196

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Project description:BackgroundHemorrhagic transformation (HT) of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is associated with poor outcome. Previous studies only reported the association of mean ischemic severity or total infarct volume with HT after endovascular therapy (EVT). We aimed to investigate the predictive value of preoperative apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) map for HT by combinated ischemic severity and corresponding volume in AIS after successful recanalization with EVT.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed 119 consecutive cases of AIS with large vessel occlusion of anterior circulation within 24 hours after symptom onset and successful recanalization after EVT. All cases had baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), follow-up computed tomography (CT), and magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) or computed tomography angiography (CTA). Volumes of ADC <0.6×10-3, 0.5×10-3, 0.4×10-3, and 0.3×10-3 mm2/s, baseline characteristics and outcomes of patients with and without HT identified by European Collaborative Acute Stroke Study (ECASS) were compared. The optimal ADC and volume threshold for predicting HT were analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed with clinical characteristics and volumes of optimal ADC threshold to determine risk factors for HT.ResultsAmong 119 patients, 42 patients had HT on follow-up CT, including 24 hemorrhagic infarct (HI) cases and 18 parenchymal hematoma (PH) cases. The optimal volumes were 6.46 mL with ADC <0.4×10-3 mm2/s for predicting both HT and PH, with a larger area under curve (AUC) of 83.3% for HT than that for PH of 80%. In logistic regression analysis, intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (IV tPA) treatment, atrial fibrillation, and volume of ADC <0.4×10-3 mm2/s were identified as independent predictors for HT and volume of ADC <0.4×10-3 mm2/s had the highest odds ratio (OR) value.ConclusionsThe combination of ischemic severity and corresponding volume in ADC map may predict HT after thrombectomy. In addition to the total infarct volume, volume with severe ischemia should be taken into consideration in preoperative patient selection.

Project description:Background and Purpose- We determined the effect of sex on outcome after endovascular stroke thrombectomy in acute ischemic stroke, including lifelong disability outcomes. Methods- We analyzed patients treated with the Solitaire stent retriever in the combined SWIFT (Solitaire FR With the Intention for Thrombectomy), STAR (Solitaire FR Thrombectomy for Acute Revascularization), and SWIFT PRIME (Solitaire FR With the Intention for Thrombectomy as Primary Endovascular Treatment) cohorts. Ordinal and logistic regression were used to examine known factors influencing outcome after endovascular stroke thrombectomy and study the effect of sex on the association between these factors and outcomes, including age and time to reperfusion. Years of optimal life after thrombectomy were defined as disability-adjusted life years and calculated by projecting disability through adjusted poststroke life expectancy by sex. Results- Among 389 patients treated with endovascular stroke thrombectomy, 55% were females, and median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale was 17 (interquartile range, 8-28). There were no differences between females versus males in presenting deficit severity (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, 17 versus 17, P=0.21), occlusion location (69% versus 64% M1, P=0.62), presenting infarct extent (Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score 8 versus 8, P=0.24), rate of substantial reperfusion (Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction 2b/3, 87% versus 83%, P=0.37), onset to reperfusion time (294 versus 302 minutes, P=0.46). Despite older ages (69 versus 64, P<0.001) and higher rate of atrial fibrillation (45% versus 30%, P=0.002) for females compared with males, adjusted rates of functional independence at 90 days were similar (odds ratio, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.6-1.6). After adjusting for age at presentation and stroke severity, females had more years of optimal life (disability-adjusted life year) after endovascular stroke thrombectomy, 10.6 versus 8.5 years (P<0.001). Conclusions- Despite greater age and higher rate of atrial fibrillation, females experienced comparable functional outcomes and greater years of optimal life after intervention compared with males.

Dataset Information

Identification of Predictors for Hemorrhagic Transformation in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke After Endovascular Therapy Using the Decision Tree Model.

Publications

Identification of Predictors for Hemorrhagic Transformation in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke After Endovascular Therapy Using the Decision Tree Model.

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