Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Nedelciu CE
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7490587 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics: Assessing regional impact to 2050.
Nedelciu C E CE Ragnarsdottir K V KV Schlyter P P Stjernquist I I
Global food security 20200915
Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate im ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:Phosphorus (P) is an essential macronutrient in agriculture; however, lack of reporting makes its supply chain a black box. By using literature synthesis on the P challenge, we identify four areas where the reporting process is problematic: P reserves and resources; P losses along the supply chain; P externalities; and access to data. We find that in these areas, the reporting system is inconsistent, inaccurate, incomplete, fragmented and non-transparent. We use systems analysis to discuss implications of reporting on the sustainability of the P supply chain. We find that reporting is essential for the achievement of global P governance and the human right to adequate food. It can also inform decision makers and other impacted stakeholders on policies on agriculture, food security, pollution and international conflict. An improved P reporting process also allows a better evaluation of global sustainability commitments such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
| S-EPMC7028792 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The on-going COVID-19 pandemic and consequent lockdowns cast significant impacts on global economy in the short run. Their impact on stability of global electric vehicles (EVs) supply chain and thus our climate ambition in the long run, however, remains hitherto largely unexplored. We aim to address this gap based on an integrated model framework, including assessing supply risks of 17 selected core commodities throughout the EV supply chain and further applying the supply constraints to project future EV sales until 2030. Our model results under three pandemic development scenarios indicate that if the pandemic is effectively contained before 2024, the global EV industry will recover without fundamentally scathed and thus can maintain the same growth trend as in the no-pandemic scenario by 2030. We suggest that fiscal stimulus in the postpandemic era should be directed more toward upgrading the quality of battery products, rather than expanding the production capacity.
| S-EPMC8837477 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this paper, we study the topological properties of the global supply chain network in terms of its degree distribution, clustering coefficient, degree-degree correlation, bow-tie structure, and community structure to test the efficient supply chain propositions proposed by E. J.S. Hearnshaw et al. The global supply chain data in the year 2017 are constructed by collecting various company data from the web site of Standard & Poor's Capital IQ platform. The in- and out-degree distributions are characterized by a power law of the form of γin = 2.42 and γout = 2.11. The clustering coefficient decays [Formula: see text] with an exponent βk = 0.46. The nodal degree-degree correlations 〈knn(k)〉 indicates the absence of assortativity. The bow-tie structure of giant weakly connected component (GWCC) reveals that the OUT component is the largest and consists 41.1% of all firms. The giant strong connected component (GSCC) is comprised of 16.4% of all firms. We observe that upstream or downstream firms are located a few steps away from the GSCC. Furthermore, we uncover the community structures of the network and characterize them according to their location and industry classification. We observe that the largest community consists of the consumer discretionary sector based mainly in the United States (US). These firms belong to the OUT component in the bow-tie structure of the global supply chain network. Finally, we confirm the validity of Hearnshaw et al.'s efficient supply chain propositions, namely Proposition S1 (short path length), Proposition S2 (power-law degree distribution), Proposition S3 (high clustering coefficient), Proposition S4 ("fit-gets-richer" growth mechanism), Proposition S5 (truncation of power-law degree distribution), and Proposition S7 (community structure with overlapping boundaries) regarding the global supply chain network. While the original propositions S1 just mentioned a short path length, we found the short path from the GSCC to IN and OUT by analyzing the bow-tie structure. Therefore, the short path length in the bow-tie structure is a conceptual addition to the original propositions of Hearnshaw.
| S-EPMC7529254 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Policies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will not only slow climate change, but can also have ancillary benefits of improved air quality. Here we examine the co-benefits of both global and regional GHG mitigation on U.S. air quality in 2050 at fine resolution, using dynamical downscaling methods, building on a previous global co-benefits study (West et al., 2013). The co-benefits for U.S. air quality are quantified via two mechanisms: through reductions in co-emitted air pollutants from the same sources, and by slowing climate change and its influence on air quality, following West et al. (2013). Additionally, we separate the total co-benefits into contributions from domestic GHG mitigation versus mitigation in foreign countries. We use the WRF model to dynamically downscale future global climate to the regional scale, the SMOKE program to directly process global anthropogenic emissions into the regional domain, and we provide dynamical boundary conditions from global simulations to the regional CMAQ model. The total co-benefits of global GHG mitigation from the RCP4.5 scenario compared with its reference are estimated to be higher in the eastern U.S. (ranging from 0.6-1.0 μg m-3) than the west (0-0.4 μg m-3) for PM2.5, with an average of 0.47 μg m-3 over U.S.; for O3, the total co-benefits are more uniform at 2-5 ppb with U.S. average of 3.55 ppb. Comparing the two mechanisms of co-benefits, we find that reductions of co-emitted air pollutants have a much greater influence on both PM2.5 (96% of the total co-benefits) and O3 (89% of the total) than the second co-benefits mechanism via slowing climate change, consistent with West et al. (2013). GHG mitigation from foreign countries contributes more to the U.S. O3 reduction (76% of the total) than that from domestic GHG mitigation only (24%), highlighting the importance of global methane reductions and the intercontinental transport of air pollutants. For PM2.5, the benefits of domestic GHG control are greater (74% of total). Since foreign contributions to co-benefits can be substantial, with foreign O3 benefits much larger than those from domestic reductions, previous studies that focus on local or regional co-benefits may greatly underestimate the total co-benefits of global GHG reductions. We conclude that the U.S. can gain significantly greater domestic air quality co-benefits by engaging with other nations to control GHGs.
| S-EPMC6150466 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Crop-livestock production systems are the largest cause of human alteration of the global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. Our comprehensive spatially explicit inventory of N and P budgets in livestock and crop production systems shows that in the beginning of the 20th century, nutrient budgets were either balanced or surpluses were small; between 1900 and 1950, global soil N surplus almost doubled to 36 trillion grams (Tg) · y(-1) and P surplus increased by a factor of 8 to 2 Tg · y(-1). Between 1950 and 2000, the global surplus increased to 138 Tg · y(-1) of N and 11 Tg · y(-1) of P. Most surplus N is an environmental loss; surplus P is lost by runoff or accumulates as residual soil P. The International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science, and Technology for Development scenario portrays a world with a further increasing global crop (+82% for 2000-2050) and livestock production (+115%); despite rapidly increasing recovery in crop (+35% N recovery and +6% P recovery) and livestock (+35% N and P recovery) production, global nutrient surpluses continue to increase (+23% N and +54% P), and in this period, surpluses also increase in Africa (+49% N and +236% P) and Latin America (+75% N and +120% P). Alternative management of livestock production systems shows that combinations of intensification, better integration of animal manure in crop production, and matching N and P supply to livestock requirements can effectively reduce nutrient flows. A shift in human diets, with poultry or pork replacing beef, can reduce nutrient flows in countries with intensive ruminant production.
| S-EPMC3876211 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Falsified medicines and their international regulation impacts all healthcare sectors and their actors. These regulations aim to strengthen and protect the global pharmaceutical supply chain against falsified medicines. However, an evaluation of the impacts of these regulations on key stakeholders within the legitimate supply chain have not been explored. This research aimed to evaluate both the positive and negative impacts of falsified medicines regulation on key stakeholders within the global pharmacy sector including including manufacturers, wholesalers, hospital pharmacies, community pharmacy and patients. This research consists of a systematic review and thematic analysis concerning falsified medicines regulation and the subsequent impacts of existing global regulations on healthcare. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement and checklist were utilized for reporting in this systematic review. A search of three databases, Embase, ProQuest and PubMed, was undertaken to determine studies applicable to the research question. The Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) was used to assess methodological quality and risk of bias for all included studies. From the initial 657 studies, a final set of 13 relevant studies were identified. The most frequently reported falsified medicines regulation was the Falsified Medicines Directive (FMD) [n = 11]. The impact of falsified medicines regulation in the literature related to four areas: (1) Financial, (2) Social, (3) Organizational, and (4) Pharmacy Practice. These common themes across the included studies frequently relate to challenges and/or concerns associated with falsified medicines regulation implementation as well as both the logistics and practicality of incorporating falsified medicines regulations into daily operations. Implementation and enforcement of falsified medicines regulation does not yet appear to categorically fulfill the primary aim of the regulations, to strengthen the drug supply chain. However, in recent years, such regulations have challenged the legitimate pharmaceutical supply change actors as they attempt to successfully implement these regulations. Studies mainly detail the negative impacts of regulation during the implementation phase but with the overall benefit pertaining to the prioritization and enhancement of patient care and safety within the healthcare sector.
| S-EPMC11291459 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 crisis has notably impacted global supply chains as it has disrupted manufacturing operations. To recover from the aforementioned disruptions, supply chain digitalization [SCD] is increasingly being acknowledged to help the recovery process. Based on this, scholars have called for additional research on how SCD can enhance supply chain visibility [SCV] and boost supply chain performance [SCP] in turbulent environments. Based on 399 valid responses collected through cross-sectional method from Turkish manufacturing firms and using a non-probabilistic sampling method [i.e., purposive sampling], this research explores the effect of SCD on SCP. The mediating role of SCV and the moderating role of supply chain survivability [SCS] on the SCD-SCP relationship were also explored. The findings showed that SCD has a positive effect on SCP. SCD has a positive effect on SCV. SCV has a positive effect on SCP. The link between SCD and SCP is mediated by SCP. The results also revealed that SCS moderated the SCD-SCV link such that SCD has a stronger, positive relationship with SCV when SCS is high than when it's low. SCS moderates the SCD-SCP link, such that at low levels of SCS, the positive effect of SCD on SCP is weakened. The indirect positive effect of SCD on SCP via SCV is strongest when supply chain survivability is high. The findings suggest that SCD can improve cost-effectiveness, promote communication and information efficiency, and enhance supply chain resilience to improve performance after disruptions. This study provides insightful new implications for both supply chain literature and practitioners.
| S-EPMC10881317 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this paper, we offer a new framework to measure cross-border supply chain fragmentation and its impact on the global trade elasticity. Firstly, we introduce the supply chain fragmentation ratio that sums the volume of imports by all countries that participate in a particular supply chain. We find that supply chain fragmentation slowed down after 2010 for most goods, but not for services. We demonstrate the importance of using trade and production data at constant prices in measuring fragmentation trends. Secondly, we quantify the impact of fragmentation on the elasticity of trade to world GDP, extending the framework of Bems et al. (Am Econ Rev Pap Proc 101(3):308–312, 2011). We account for trade effects from fragmentation within supply chains as well as asymmetric shocks to final demand. We find that the declining pace of fragmentation accounted for more than a third of the decline in the global trade elasticity after 2010. Supplementary information The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1057/s41308-021-00134-8).
| S-EPMC7988637 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global health supply chains including manufacturing, storage, and delivery of essential medicines, testing kits, personal protective equipment, and laboratory reagents. We sought to document how pandemic impacted the procurement, prices, and supply chain of medical products in Zimbabwe.MethodsWe conducted semistructured in-depth key informant interviews with 36 health system stakeholders in Zimbabwe involved in medicine procurement. Respondents included pharmacists, regulatory officers, and procurement and supply chain management professionals from public and private sectors.ResultsBefore the COVID-19 pandemic, respondents described experiencing long-standing resource constraints, medicine shortages, foreign currency shortages, and supply chain inefficiencies. The pandemic exacerbated this situation due to supply constraints, export restrictions, medicine shortages, and movement restrictions that disrupted logistical and stock management systems. Competitive bidding and tendering processes experienced reduced participation by international suppliers. Significant price increases were initially observed among internationally shipped medicines and for personal protective equipment to cover additional freight costs. COVID-19 pandemic impacts were moderated by reduced patient demand and lower health services utilization, resulting in fewer supply shocks and less price volatility. Further, health system adaptations such as switching treatment regimens, modifying dispensing schedules based on stock availability, redistributing stock of medicines among facilities, and new service delivery models such as integrated outreach services helped ensure continued patient access to medicines.ConclusionsOur findings highlight the need for policies that ensure continuity in access to health services and medical products, even during a pandemic, by avoiding blanket restrictions on medical product exports and imports. Pooled procurement, especially at regional and global levels, with long-term service agreements may help achieve greater resiliency to supply and price shocks from supply chain disruptions. Interventions across manufacturing, trade, and regulatory policy and service delivery models are also needed for supply chain resiliency.
| S-EPMC10615236 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The primary vector of the dengue fever virus, the Aedes aegypti mosquito, is distributed across the tropical and sub-tropical latitudes; however, the area at risk of infection has been expanding steadily. This study aimed to identify the industries most vulnerable to the effects of dengue fever by 2030. The assessment was done by considering the international supply chain, with aspects such as the labor intensity, and the relevant geographical and socioeconomic aspects being taken into account. In addition, multi-regional input-output tables were employed to analyze the ripple effects of productivity losses resulting from workers contracting the disease. The results indicate that more than 10% of the workers involved in the supply chain of all the major industries in the United States (USA), China, Japan, and Germany could be considered at risk of contracting dengue fever by 2030. Moreover, the risk was even higher in India and Brazil, namely, more than 70%. The effect of widespread dengue fever infection could influence industrial activities severely, not only in the regions most at risk (India and Brazil) but also in the other regions (USA, Japan, and Germany). Labor-intensive industries, such as agriculture, fisheries, and the distribution sector are particularly at risk and will have to consider appropriate contingency measures. It is recommended that the downstream side of the supply chain, the industries in the USA, Japan, and Germany, supports the introduction of worker's health management system against the infectious disease into their business partners. This study employed limited data and only estimated the possible effects of the disease by 2030. Further comprehensive analysis is required with more data modeled for the future to verify and enhance the reliability of the present results.
| S-EPMC7089289 | biostudies-literature