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A novel predictive model based on inflammatory markers to assess the prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Systemic inflammatory response is closely related to the development and prognosis of liver failure. This study aimed to establish a new model combing the inflammatory markers including neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) with several hematological testing indicators to assess the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). METHODS:A derivation cohort with 421 patients and a validation cohort with 156 patients were recruited from three hospitals. Retrospectively collecting their clinical data and laboratory testing indicators. Medcalc-15.10 software was employed for data analyses. RESULTS:Multivariate analysis indicated that RDW, NLR, INR, TBIL and Cr were risk factors for 90-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. The risk assessment model is COXRNTIC?=?0.053?×?RDW?+?0.027?×?NLR?+?0.003?×?TBIL+?0.317?×?INR?+?0.003?×?Cr (RNTIC) with a cut-off value of 3.08 (sensitivity: 77.89%, specificity: 86.04%). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of the RNTIC was 0.873 [95% CI(0.837-0.903)], better than the predictive value of MELD score [0.732, 95% CI(0.687-0.774)], MELD-Na [0.714, 95% CI(0.668-0.757)], CTP[0.703, 95% CI(0.657-0.747)]. In the validation cohort, RNTIC also performed a better prediction value than MELD score, MELD-Na and CTP with the AUC of [0.845, 95% CI(0.778-0.898)], [0.768, 95% CI (0.694-0.832)], [0.759, 95% CI(0.684-0.824)] and [0.718, 95% CI(0.641-0.787)] respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The inflammatory markers RDW and NLR could be used as independent predictors of 90-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. Compared with MELD score, MELD-Na and CTP, RNTIC had a more powerful predictive value for prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF.

SUBMITTER: Qiang L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7493843 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A novel predictive model based on inflammatory markers to assess the prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective cohort study.

Qiang Li L Qin Jiao J Sun Changfeng C Sheng Yunjian Y Chen Wen W Qiu Bangdong B Chen Xin X Chen Yuanfang Y Liu Fei F Wu Gang G

BMC gastroenterology 20200916 1

<h4>Background</h4>Systemic inflammatory response is closely related to the development and prognosis of liver failure. This study aimed to establish a new model combing the inflammatory markers including neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) with several hematological testing indicators to assess the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF).<h4>Methods</h4>A derivation cohort with 421 patients and a va ...[more]

PMID: 32938405

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Project description:BackgroundAcute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by acute decompensation, organ failures, and high short-term mortality whose main cause in China is the Hepatitis B virus (HBV). Moreover, one of the most important causes of morbidity and mortality in HBV-ACLF patients is bacterial infection. Therefore, we investigate the clinical features, risk factors, prophylaxis and management of infections in patients with HBV-ACLF.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of 539 patients with HBV-ACLF in Wuhan Tongji Hospital from October 2015 to May 2018. Differences among groups were compared with Student's t test, Mann-Whitney U test, χ2 test, or Fisher exact test as appropriate. Univariate and Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used for modeling the relationship between infection and clinical characteristics of HBV-ACLF.ResultsIn total 58.81% (317/539) of patients with HBV-ACLF became complicated with infections, and the most common types were spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, urinary tract infection and pulmonary infection. Additionally, 32.18% (102/317) of patients suffered multi-organ infections, and 95.73% (516/539) of patients received anti-infective therapy. We detected a total of 202 isolates in all infected patients, and Escherichia coli (36.14%, 73/202) was the most common causative organism. Moreover, antibiotic susceptibility test patterns showed that 52.97% (107/202) of pathogens were MDR bacteria and 4.95% (10/202) were XDR bacteria. Univariate analysis indicated that patients with infection had a higher proportion of females, taking alcohol, diuretics, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), hepatorenal syndrome (HS), cirrhosis, a long-time in bed and mechanical ventilation, lower prothrombin activity (PTA), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), albumin, total cholesterol (TC), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), hemoglobin (Hb) and platelet (PLT) and higher age, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores and ACLF grade than patients without infection. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that taking alcohol, HE, HS, cirrhosis, albumin and eGFR were risk factors for the development of infection.ConclusionsBacterial infections were very common in patients with HBV-ACLF. Taking alcohol, the occurrence of complications (HE, HS and cirrhosis), hypoalbuminemia and poor renal function often predict the higher prevalence of infections in patients with HBV-ACLF. It is important to focus on exploring the early recognition of infection and early intervention of those risk factors in patients with HBV-ACLF.

Project description:Prompt and accurate prediction of the outcome is the key to make correct medical decision and to reduce the mortality in patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Increasing evidence have certified that small, noncoding microRNAs (miRNAs) play critically regulatory roles in the pathogenesis of liver diseases. However, it remains unclear whether and how miRNAs involve in the prognosis of ACLF.Microarray analysis was performed to characterize the miRNA expression profiles in liver tissues from 1 HBV-related ACLF patient and 1 matched healthy control. Nine miRNAs with at least 5 folds difference between these 2 persons were picked out. The present prospective study involving 39 HBV-related ACLF patients including 20 recovered and 19 nonrecovered patients, which include death (n = 9) and liver transplantation (n = 10). The serum expression of these miRNAs detected by quantitative real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (qRT-RCR) was then compared between the 2 groups. Moreover, the correlation between the serum miRNAs and the prognostic indexes for ACLF was analyzed.The result of microarray analysis showed 9 miRNAs had different expression in liver tissues of ACLF patient compared with healthy control (upregulated: miRNA-130a, -21, -143, and -200a; downregulated: miRNA-486-5p, -192, -148a, -122, and -194). Unlike the expression profiles in liver tissue, 8 serum miRNAs except miRNA-194 were markedly upregulated in ACLF patients (P < 0.05). Remarkably, the serum expression of miRNA-130a and miRNA-486-5p was higher in recovered than nonrecovered ACLF patients (P < 0.05). Especially, the serum miRNA-130a was negatively correlated with international normalized ratio, prothrombin time, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and positively correlated with prothrombin time activity. The AUC for recovered versus nonrecovered patients of miRNA-130a was 0.741 (P = 0.02).miRNA-130a might be a useful prognosis biomarker in patients with HBV-related ACLF.

Dataset Information

A novel predictive model based on inflammatory markers to assess the prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective cohort study.

Publications

A novel predictive model based on inflammatory markers to assess the prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective cohort study.

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