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Predicting keratinocyte carcinoma in patients with actinic keratosis: development and internal validation of a multivariable risk-prediction model.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Patients with actinic keratosis (AK) are at increased risk for developing keratinocyte carcinoma (KC) but predictive factors and their risk rates are unknown. OBJECTIVES:To develop and internally validate a prediction model to calculate the absolute risk of a first KC in patients with AK. METHODS:The risk-prediction model was based on the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study cohort. We hereto analysed the data of participants with at least one AK lesion at cohort baseline using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and included 13 a priori defined candidate predictor variables considering phenotypic, genetic and lifestyle risk factors. KCs were identified by linkage of the data with the Dutch Pathology Registry. RESULTS:Of the 1169 AK participants at baseline, 176 (15·1%) developed a KC after a median follow-up of 1·8 years. The final model with significant predictors was obtained after backward stepwise selection and comprised the presence of four to nine AKs [hazard ratio (HR) 1·68, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·17-2·42], 10 or more AKs (HR 2·44, 95% CI 1·65-3·61), AK localization on the upper extremities (HR 0·75, 95% CI 0·52-1·08) or elsewhere except the head (HR 1·40, 95% CI 0·98-2·01) and coffee consumption (HR 0·92, 95% CI 0·84-1·01). Evaluation of the discriminative ability of the model showed a bootstrap validated concordance index (c-index) of 0·60. CONCLUSIONS:We showed that the risk of KC in patients with AK can be calculated with the use of four easily assessable predictor variables. Given the c-index, extension of the model with additional, currently unknown predictor variables is desirable. Linked Comment: Kim et al. Br J Dermatol 2020; 183:415-416.

SUBMITTER: Tokez S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7496285 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting keratinocyte carcinoma in patients with actinic keratosis: development and internal validation of a multivariable risk-prediction model.

Tokez S S Alblas M M Nijsten T T Pardo L M LM Wakkee M M

The British journal of dermatology 20200226 3

<h4>Background</h4>Patients with actinic keratosis (AK) are at increased risk for developing keratinocyte carcinoma (KC) but predictive factors and their risk rates are unknown.<h4>Objectives</h4>To develop and internally validate a prediction model to calculate the absolute risk of a first KC in patients with AK.<h4>Methods</h4>The risk-prediction model was based on the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study cohort. We hereto analysed the data of participants with at least one AK lesion a ...[more]

PMID: 31856292

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:To compare the repetitive DNA patterns of human actinic keratoses and squamous cell carcinomas to determine the genetic alterations that are associated with malignant transformation. INTRODUCTION:Cancer cells are prone to genomic instability, which is often due to DNA polymerase slippage during the replication of repetitive DNA and to mutations in the DNA repair genes. The progression of benign actinic keratoses to malignant squamous cell carcinomas has been proposed by several authors. MATERIAL AND METHODS:Eight actinic keratoses and 24 squamous cell carcinomas (SCC), which were pair-matched to adjacent skin tissues and/or leucocytes, were studied. The presence of microsatellite instability (MSI) and the loss of heterozygosity (LOH) in chromosomes 6 and 9 were investigated using nine PCR primer pairs. Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA patterns were also evaluated using eight primers. RESULTS:MSI was detected in two (D6S251, D9S50) of the eight actinic keratosis patients. Among the 8 patients who had squamous cell carcinoma-I and provided informative results, a single patient exhibited two LOH (D6S251, D9S287) and two instances of MSI (D9S180, D9S280). Two LOH and one example of MSI (D6S251) were detected in three out of the 10 patients with squamous cell carcinoma-II. Among the four patients with squamous cell carcinoma-III, one patient displayed three MSIs (D6S251, D6S252, and D9S180) and another patient exhibited an MSI (D9S280). The altered random amplified polymorphic DNA ranged from 70% actinic keratoses, 76% squamous cell carcinoma-I, and 90% squamous cell carcinoma-II, to 100% squamous cell carcinoma-III. DISCUSSION:The increased levels of alterations in the microsatellites, particularly in D6S251, and the random amplified polymorphic DNA fingerprints were statistically significant in squamous cell carcinomas, compared with actinic keratoses. CONCLUSION:The overall alterations that were observed in the repetitive DNA of actinic keratoses and squamous cell carcinomas indicate the presence of a spectrum of malignant progression.

Project description:Actinic keratoses (AKs) are common skin lesions heralding an increased risk of developing squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and other skin malignancies, arising principally due to excessive ultraviolet (UV) exposure. They are predominantly found in fair-skinned individuals, and increasingly, are a problem of the immunosuppressed. AKs may regress spontaneously, remain stable or transform to invasive SCC. The risk of SCC increases for those with more than 5 AKs, and the majority of SCCs arise from AKs. The main mechanisms of AK formation are inflammation, oxidative stress, immunosuppression, impaired apoptosis, mutagenesis, dysregulation of cell growth and proliferation, and tissue remodeling. Human papilloma virus has also been implicated in the formation of some AKs. Understanding these mechanisms guides the rationale behind the current available treatments for AKs. One of the main principles underpinning the management of AKs is that of field cancerization. Wide areas of skin are exposed to increasing amounts of UV light and other environmental insults as we age. This is especially true for the head, neck and forearms. These insults do not target only the skin where individual lesions develop, but also large areas where crops of AKs may appear. The skin between lesions is exposed to the same insults and is likely to contain as-yet undetectable preclinical lesions or areas of dysplastic cells. The whole affected area is known as the 'field'. Management is therefore divided into lesion-directed and field-directed therapies. Current therapies include lesion-directed cryotherapy and/or excision, and topical field-directed creams: 5-fluorouracil, imiquimod, diclofenac, photodynamic therapy and ingenol mebutate. Combining lesion- and field-directed therapies has yielded good results and several novel therapies are under investigation. Treatment is variable and tailored to the individual making a gold standard management algorithm difficult to design. This literature review article aims to describe the rationale behind the best available therapies for AKs in light of current understanding of pathophysiology and epidemiology. A PubMed and MEDLINE search of literature was performed between January 1, 2000 and September 18, 2013. Where appropriate, articles published prior to this have been referenced. This is not a systematic review or meta-analysis, but aims to highlight the most up to date understanding of AK disease and its management.

Project description:Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is the second-most-common cancer in Australia. The majority of SCCs progress from premalignant actinic keratosis (AK) lesions that form on chronically sun-exposed skin. The role of skin microbiota in this progression is not well understood; therefore, we performed a longitudinal microbiome analysis of AKs and SCCs using a cohort of 13 SCC-prone immunocompetent men. The majority of variability in microbial profiles was attributable to subject, followed by time and lesion type. Propionibacterium and Malassezia organisms were relatively more abundant in nonlesional photodamaged skin than in AKs and SCCs. Staphylococcus was most commonly associated with lesional skin, in particular, sequences most closely related to Staphylococcus aureus Of 11 S. aureus-like operational taxonomic units (OTUs), six were significantly associated with SCC lesions across seven subjects, suggesting their specific involvement with AK-to-SCC progression. If a causative link exists between certain S. aureus-like OTUs and SCC etiology, therapeutic approaches specifically targeting these bacteria could be used to reduce SCC.IMPORTANCE Actinic keratosis (AK) and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) are two of the most common dermatologic conditions in Western countries and cause substantial morbidity worldwide. The role of human papillomaviruses under these conditions has been well studied yet remains inconclusive. One PCR-based study has investigated bacteria in the etiology of these conditions; however, no study has investigated the microbiomes of AK and SCC more broadly. We longitudinally profiled the microbiomes of 112 AK lesions, profiled cross sections of 32 spontaneously arising SCC lesions, and compared these to matching nonlesional photodamaged control skin sites. We identified commonly occurring strains of Propionibacterium and Malassezia at higher relative abundances on nonlesional skin than in AK and SCC lesions, and strains of Staphylococcus aureus were relatively more abundant in lesional than nonlesional skin. These findings may aid in the prevention of SCC.

Project description:BackgroundIntensive care unit (ICU) outcome prediction models, such as Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), were designed in general critical care populations and their use in obstetric populations is contentious. The aim of the CIPHER (Collaborative Integrated Pregnancy High-dependency Estimate of Risk) study was to develop and internally validate a multivariable prognostic model calibrated specifically for pregnant or recently delivered women admitted for critical care.MethodsA retrospective observational cohort was created for this study from 13 tertiary facilities across five high-income and six low- or middle-income countries. Women admitted to an ICU for more than 24 h during pregnancy or less than 6 weeks post-partum from 2000 to 2012 were included in the cohort. A composite primary outcome was defined as maternal death or need for organ support for more than 7 days or acute life-saving intervention. Model development involved selection of candidate predictor variables based on prior evidence of effect, availability across study sites, and use of LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) model building after multiple imputation using chained equations to address missing data for variable selection. The final model was estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Internal validation was completed using bootstrapping to correct for optimism in model performance measures of discrimination and calibration.ResultsOverall, 127 out of 769 (16.5%) women experienced an adverse outcome. Predictors included in the final CIPHER model were maternal age, surgery in the preceding 24 h, systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale score, serum sodium, serum potassium, activated partial thromboplastin time, arterial blood gas (ABG) pH, serum creatinine, and serum bilirubin. After internal validation, the model maintained excellent discrimination (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 0.84) and good calibration (slope of 0.92, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.92 and intercept of -0.11, 95% CI -0.13 to -0.08).ConclusionsThe CIPHER model has the potential to be a pragmatic risk prediction tool. CIPHER can identify critically ill pregnant women at highest risk for adverse outcomes, inform counseling of patients about risk, and facilitate bench-marking of outcomes between centers by adjusting for baseline risk.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:To develop and internally validate a prediction model for tinnitus recovery following unilateral cochlear implantation. DESIGN:A cross-sectional retrospective study. SETTING:A questionnaire concerning tinnitus was sent to patients with bilateral severe to profound hearing loss, who underwent unilateral cochlear implantation at the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands, between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2015. PARTICIPANTS:Of 137 included patients, 87 patients experienced tinnitus preoperatively. Data of these 87 patients were used to develop the prediction model. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES:The outcome of the prediction model was tinnitus recovery. Investigated predictors were: age, gender, duration of deafness, preoperative hearing performance, tinnitus duration, severity and localisation, follow-up duration, localisation of cochlear implant (CI) compared with tinnitus side, surgical approach, insertion depth of the electrode, CI brand and difference in hearing threshold following cochlear implantation. Multivariable backward logistic regression was performed. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. The performance of the model was assessed by the calibrative and discriminative ability of the model. The prediction model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. RESULTS:The tinnitus recovery rate was 40%. A lower preoperative Consonant-Vowel-Consonant (CVC) score, unilateral localisation of tinnitus and larger deterioration of residual hearing at 250?Hz revealed to be relevant predictors for tinnitus recovery. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of the initial model was 0.722 (IQR: 0.703-0.729). After internal validation of this prediction model, the AUC decreased to 0.696 (IQR: 0.667-0.700). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE:Lower preoperative CVC score, unilateral localisation of tinnitus and larger deterioration of residual hearing at 250?Hz were significant predictors for tinnitus recovery following unilateral cochlear implantation. The performance of the model developed in this retrospective study is promising. However, before clinical use of the model, the conduction of a larger prospective study is recommended.

Project description:ImportanceActinic keratosis (AK), a skin growth induced by ultraviolet light exposure, requires chronic management because a small proportion can progress into squamous cell skin cancer. Spending for AK management was more than $1 billion in 2004. Investigating geographic variation in AK spending presents an opportunity to decrease waste or recoup excess spending.ObjectiveTo evaluate geographic variation in health care cost for management of AKs and the association with patient-related and health-related factors.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study was performed using data from the MarketScan medical claims database of 488 324 continuously enrolled members with 2 or more claims for AK. Data from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2012, was used.Main outcomes and measuresAnnual costs of care were calculated for outpatient visits, AK destruction, and medications for AKs, and the total of these components. Costs were adjusted for inflation to 2014 US dollars. To display cost variation, we calculated the ratio of mean cost in the highest quintile (Q5) relative to the mean in the lowest quintile (Q1), or the Q5:Q1 ratio; Q5:Q1 ratios were adjusted based on age, sex, history of nonmelanoma skin cancer, US geographic region, and population density (metropolitan statistical area).ResultsOverall, data from 488 324 continuously enrolled members (mean [SD] age, 53.1 [7.5] years; 243 662 women) with 2 or more claims for AK were included. Overall, patients had 1 085 985 claims related to AK, and dermatologists accounted for 71.0% of claims. The 2-year total cost was $111.5 million, with $52.4 million in 2011 and $59.1 million in 2012. The unadjusted Q5:Q1 ratios for total annual cost per patient ranged from 9.49 to 15.10. Adjusted ratios ranged from 1.72 to 1.80.Conclusions and relevanceThere is variation in AK management cost within and between regions. This is not fully explained by differences in patient characteristics such as age, sex, or comorbidities. The annual cost for 10 common conditions from Medicare had lower Q5:Q1 ratios that ranged from 1.33 (joint degeneration of back/neck) to 1.69 (chronic sinusitis) when compared with 1.72 to 1.80 for AKs. This suggests an opportunity to investigate and improve the value of health care delivery in the management of AKs.

Dataset Information

Predicting keratinocyte carcinoma in patients with actinic keratosis: development and internal validation of a multivariable risk-prediction model.

Publications

Predicting keratinocyte carcinoma in patients with actinic keratosis: development and internal validation of a multivariable risk-prediction model.

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