Dataset Information

Use of Weather Variables in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Studies.

ABSTRACT: The persistence and intensity of the current severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, and the advanced planning required to balance competing concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, may depend in part on whether the virus is sensitive to seasonal changes in environmental variables, such as temperature and humidity. Although multiple studies have sought to address possible effects of these variables on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, results of these studies have been varied. It is possible that at least some of the differing results are due to insufficient understanding of atmospheric science, including certain physical and chemical principles underlying selected meteorological variables, and how global seasons differ between tropical and temperate zones. The objective of this brief perspective is to provide information that may help explain some of the differing results of studies regarding the influence of environmental variables on transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2. This information may promote better variable selection and results interpretation in future studies of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other infectious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Babin S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7497393 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Use of Weather Variables in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Studies.

Babin Steven S

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases 20200917

The persistence and intensity of the current severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, and the advanced planning required to balance competing concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, may depend in part on whether the virus is sensitive to seasonal changes in environmental variables, such as temperature and humidity. Although multiple studies have sought to address possible effects of these variables on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, results of these studie ...[more]

PMID: 32950732

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Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding how environmental factors affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission could inform global containment efforts. Despite high scientific and public interest and multiple research reports, there is currently no consensus on the association of environmental factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To address this research gap, we aimed to assess the relative risk of transmission associated with weather conditions and ambient air pollution.MethodsIn this global analysis, we adjusted for the delay between infection and detection, estimated the daily reproduction number at 3739 global locations during the COVID-19 pandemic up until late April, 2020, and investigated its associations with daily local weather conditions (ie, temperature, humidity, precipitation, snowfall, moon illumination, sunlight hours, ultraviolet index, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, and pressure data) and ambient air pollution (ie, PM2·5, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and sulphur dioxide). To account for other confounding factors, we included both location-specific fixed effects and trends, controlling for between-location differences and heterogeneities in locations' responses over time. We built confidence in our estimations through synthetic data, robustness, and sensitivity analyses, and provided year-round global projections for weather-related risk of global SARS-CoV-2 transmission.FindingsOur dataset included data collected between Dec 12, 2019, and April 22, 2020. Several weather variables and ambient air pollution were associated with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across 3739 global locations. We found a moderate, negative relationship between the estimated reproduction number and temperatures warmer than 25°C (a decrease of 3·7% [95% CI 1·9-5·4] per additional degree), a U-shaped relationship with outdoor ultraviolet exposure, and weaker positive associations with air pressure, wind speed, precipitation, diurnal temperature, sulphur dioxide, and ozone. Results were robust to multiple assumptions. Independent research building on our estimates provides strong support for the resulting projections across nations.InterpretationWarmer temperature and moderate outdoor ultraviolet exposure result in a slight reduction in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2; however, changes in weather or air pollution alone are not enough to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 with other factors having greater effects.FundingNone.

Dataset Information

Use of Weather Variables in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Studies.

Publications

Use of Weather Variables in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Studies.

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