The incidence of breast cancer in Canada 1971-2015: trends in screening-eligible and young-onset age groups.
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ABSTRACT: Objectives
Breast cancer incidence has fluctuated considerably in Canada, with recent reductions in rates among screening-eligible women. However, incidence of early-onset and pre-menopausal breast cancer is understudied. We examined age-specific trends in breast cancer incidence between 1971 and 2015, as well as possible trends by birth cohort.Methods
Incidence data were collected from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System and the Canadian Cancer Registry, and annual percent changes were estimated using the Joinpoint Regression Program. Five-year birth cohort models were fit using the National Cancer Institute's web tool.Results
Breast cancer incidence among women under age 40 has increased since 2000, while incidence under 50 has remained stable. Rates of post-menopausal breast cancer declined sharply and have recently plateaued. More recent birth cohorts are at a non-significantly increased risk of breast cancer compared with the reference, with an increasing upward trend.Conclusions
Rates of breast cancer may be increasing among younger women, and there is suggestive evidence that more recent birth cohorts are at increased risk of the disease. More research is needed into the risk factors for pre-menopausal breast cancer to support primary prevention efforts in this area.
SUBMITTER: Heer E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7501384 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
The incidence of breast cancer in Canada 1971-2015: trends in screening-eligible and young-onset age groups.
Heer Emily E Ruan Yibing Y Mealey Nicole N Quan May Lynn ML Brenner Darren R DR
Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique 20200306 5
<h4>Objectives</h4>Breast cancer incidence has fluctuated considerably in Canada, with recent reductions in rates among screening-eligible women. However, incidence of early-onset and pre-menopausal breast cancer is understudied. We examined age-specific trends in breast cancer incidence between 1971 and 2015, as well as possible trends by birth cohort.<h4>Methods</h4>Incidence data were collected from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System and the Canadian Cancer Registry, and annual pe ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundEvidence is emerging that the incidence of colorectal cancer is increasing in young adults, but the descriptive epidemiology required to better understand these trends is currently lacking.MethodsA population-based cohort study was carried out including all adults aged 20-49?years diagnosed with colorectal cancer in England between 1974 and 2015. Data were extracted from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service database using ICD-9/10 codes for colorectal cancer. Temporal trends in age-specific incidence rates according to sex, anatomical subsite, index of multiple deprivation quintile and geographical region were analysed using Joinpoint regression.ResultsA total of 56?134 new diagnoses of colorectal cancer were analysed. The most sustained increase in incidence rate was in the group aged 20-29?years, which was mainly driven by a rise in distal tumours. The magnitude of incident rate increases was similar in both sexes and across Index of Multiple Deprivation quintiles, although the most pronounced increases in incidence occurred in the southern regions of England.ConclusionColorectal cancer should no longer be considered a disease of older people. Changes in incidence rates should be used to inform future screening policy, preventative strategies and research agendas, as well as increasing public understanding that younger people need to be aware of the symptoms of colorectal cancer.
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Project description:BackgroundWith recent evidence for the increasing risk of young-onset colorectal cancer (yCRC), we had the objective to evaluate the incidence of yCRC in 1-year age increments, particularly focusing around the screening age of 50 years.MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal study using linked administrative health databases in British Columbia, Canada, including a provincial cancer registry, inpatient and outpatient visits, and vital statistics from January 1, 1986, to December 31, 2016. We calculated incidence rates per 100 000 at every age from 20 to 60 years and estimated annual percent change in incidence (APCi) of yCRC using joinpoint regression analysis.ResultsWe identified 3614 individuals with yCRC (49.9% women). The incidence of CRC steadily increased from 20 to 60 years, with a marked increase from 49 to 50 years (incidence rate ratio = 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.04 to 1.34). Furthermore, there was a trend of increased incidence of yCRC among women (APCi = 0.79%, 95% CI = 0.22% to 1.36%) and men (APCi = 2.17%, 95% CI = 1.59% to 2.76%). Analyses stratified by age yielded APCis of 2.49% (95% CI = 1.36% to 3.63%) and 0.12% (95% CI = -0.54% to 0.79%) for women aged 30-39 years and 40-49 years, respectively, and 2.97% (95% CI = 1.65% to 4.31%) and 1.86% (95% CI = 1.19% to 2.53%) for men.ConclusionsOur findings indicate a steady increase over 1-year age increments in the risk of yCRC during the years approaching and beyond screening age. These findings highlight the need to raise awareness as well as continue discussions regarding considerations of lowering the screening age.
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Project description:ImportancePeople with HIV (PWH) are often coinfected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV), leading to increased risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but few cohort studies have had sufficient power to describe the trends of HCC incidence and risk among PWH in the combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) era.ObjectiveTo determine the temporal trends of HCC incidence rates (IRs) and to compare rates by risk factors among PWH in the cART era.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) study, which was conducted between 1996 and 2015. NA-ACCORD pooled individual-level data from 22 HIV clinical and interval cohorts of PWH in the US and Canada. PWH aged 18 years or older with available CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA data were enrolled. Data analyses were completed in March 2020.ExposuresHBV infection was defined as detection of either HBV surface antigen, HBV e antigen, or HBV DNA in serum or plasma any time during observation. HCV infection was defined by detection of anti-HCV seropositivity, HCV RNA, or detectable genotype in serum or plasma at any time under observation.Main outcomes and measuresHCC diagnoses were identified on the basis of review of medical records or cancer registry linkage.ResultsOf 109 283 PWH with 723 441 person-years of follow-up, the median (interquartile range) age at baseline was 43 (36-51) years, 93 017 (85.1%) were male, 44 752 (40.9%) were White, 44 322 (40.6%) were Black, 21 343 (19.5%) had HCV coinfection, 6348 (5.8%) had HBV coinfection, and 2082 (1.9%) had triple infection; 451 individuals received a diagnosis of HCC by 2015. Between the early (1996-2000) and modern (2006-2015) cART eras, the crude HCC IR increased from 0.28 to 0.75 case per 1000 person-years. HCC IRs remained constant among HIV-monoinfected persons or those coinfected with HBV, but from 1996 to 2015, IRs increased among PWH coinfected with HCV (from 0.34 cases/1000 person-years in 1996 to 2.39 cases/1000 person-years in 2015) or those with triple infection (from 0.65 cases/1000 person-years in 1996 to 4.49 cases/1000 person-years in 2015). Recent HIV RNA levels greater than or equal to 500 copies/mL (IR ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4-2.4) and CD4 cell counts less than or equal to 500 cells/μL (IR ratio, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.6) were associated with higher HCC risk in the modern cART era. People who injected drugs had higher HCC risk compared with men who had sex with men (IR ratio, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-2.9), adjusted for HBV-HCV coinfection.Conclusions and relevanceHCC rates among PWH increased significantly over time from 1996 to 2015. PWH coinfected with viral hepatitis, those with higher HIV RNA levels or lower CD4 cell counts, and those who inject drugs had higher HCC risk.
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Project description:BackgroundWidespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) to screen for prostate cancer began in the early 1990s. Advocates for screening assert that this has caused a decrease in prostate cancer mortality. We sought to describe secular changes in prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Canada in relation to the onset of PSA screening.MethodsAge-standardized and age-specific prostate cancer incidence (1969-2007) and mortality (1969-2009) from Public Health Agency of Canada databases were analyzed by joinpoint regression. Changes in incidence and mortality were related to introduction of PSA screening.ResultsPrior to PSA screening, prostate cancer incidence increased from 54.2 to 99.8 per 100 000 between 1969 and 1990. Thereafter, incidence increased sharply (12.8% per year) to peak at 140.8/100 000 in 1993. After decreasing in all age groups between 1993 and 1996, incidence continued to increase for men aged less than 70 years, but decreased for older men. Age-standardized mortality was stable from 1969 to 1977, increased 1.4% per year to peak in 1995 and subsequently decreased at 3.3% per year; the decline started from 1987 in younger men (age < 60 yr).InterpretationIncidence was increasing before PSA screening occurred, but rose further after it was introduced. Reductions in prostate cancer mortality began before PSA screening was widely used and were larger than could be anticipated from screening alone. These findings suggest that screening caused artifactual increase in incidence, but no more than a part of reductions in prostate cancer mortality. The reduction may be due to changing treatment or certification of death.
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Project description:ImportanceEarly-onset colorectal cancer incidence rates among patients aged 45 to 49 years have been considered much lower compared with the rates among patients aged 50 to 54 years, prompting debate about earlier screening benefits at 45 years. However, the observed incidence rates in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries may underestimate colorectal cancer case burdens in those younger than 50 years compared with those older than 50 years because average-risk screening is generally not performed to detect preclinical cases of colorectal cancer. Finding steep incidence increases of invasive stage (beyond in situ) cases of colorectal cancer from age 49 to 50 years would be consistent with high rates of preexisting, undetected cancers in younger patients ultimately receiving a diagnosis of colorectal cancer after undergoing screening at 50 years.ObjectiveTo assess the preclinical burden of colorectal cancer by analyzing its incidence in 1-year age increments, focusing on the transition between ages 49 and 50 years.Design, setting, and participantsData from the SEER 18 registries, representing 28% of the US population, were used to conduct a cross-sectional study of colorectal cancer incidence rates from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2015, in 1-year age increments (ages 30-60 years) stratified by US region (South, West, Northeast, and Midwest), sex, race, disease stage, and tumor location. Statistical analysis was conducted from November 1, 2018, to December 15, 2019.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence rates of colorectal cancer.ResultsA total of 170 434 cases of colorectal cancer were analyzed among 165 160 patients (92 247 men [55.9%]; mean [SD] age, 51.6 [6.7] years). Steep increases in the incidence of colorectal cancer in the SEER 18 registries were found from 49 to 50 years of age (46.1% increase: 34.9 [95% CI, 34.1-35.8] to 51.0 [95% CI, 50.0-52.1] per 100 000 population). Steep rate increases from 49 to 50 years of age were also seen in all US regions, men and women, white and black populations, and in colon and rectal cancers. The rate ratio incidence increase in the SEER 18 registries from 49 to 50 years of age (1.46 [95% CI, 1.43-1.51]) was significantly higher than earlier 1-year age transitions. Steep rate increases in the SEER 18 registries were found from 49 to 50 years of age in localized-stage (75.9% increase: 11.2 [95% CI, 10.7-11.7] to 19.7 [95% CI, 19.0-20.3] per 100 000) and regional-stage (30.3% increase: 13.2 [95% CI, 12.7-13.8] to 17.2 [95% CI, 16.7-17.8] per 100 000) colorectal cancers. A total of 8799 of the 9474 cases (92.9%) of colorectal cancer in the SEER 18 registries from 2000 to 2015 that were diagnosed among individuals aged 50 years were invasive.Conclusions and relevanceSteep incidence increases between 49 and 50 years of age are consistent with previously undetected colorectal cancers diagnosed via screening uptake at 50 years. These cancers are not reflected in observed rates of colorectal cancer in the SEER registries among individuals younger than 50 years. Hence, using observed incidence rates from 45 to 49 years of age alone to assess potential outcomes of earlier screening may underestimate cancer prevention benefits.
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Project description:Background and aimsA concerning rise in incidence of young-onset cancers globally led to the examination of trends in incidence and survival of gastrointestinal (GI) adenocarcinomas in the Northern Territory (NT), Australia, over a 28-year period, with a special emphasis on Indigenous peoples.MethodsThis cross-sectional analysis of a prospective longitudinal database, NT Cancer Registry (1990-2017), includes all reported cases of GI (oesophagus, gastric, small intestinal, pancreas, colon, and rectum) adenocarcinomas. Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence ratio ratios, and survival was modelled using Cox proportional hazard models separately for people aged 18-50 years and >50 years.ResultsA total of 1608 cases of GI adenocarcinoma were recorded during the time of the study. While the overall incidence in people 18-50 years remained unchanged over this time (p = 0.51), the rate in individuals aged >50 years decreased (IRR = 0.65 (95% CI 0.56-0.75; p < 0.0001)). Incidence rates were significantly less in females >50 years (IRR = 0.67 95% CI 0.59-0.75; p < 0.0001), and their survival was significantly better (HR = 0.84 (95%CI 0.72-0.98; p < 0.03)) compared to males. Overall survival across all GI subsites improved in both age cohorts, especially between 2010 and 2017 (HR = 0.45 (95%CI 0.29-0.72; p < 0.0007) and HR = 0.64 (95%CI 0.52-0.78; p < 0.0001), respectively) compared to 1990-1999, driven by an improvement in survival in colonic adenocarcinoma alone, as the survival remained unchanged in other GI subsites. The incidence was significantly lower in Indigenous patients compared to non-Indigenous patients, in both age cohorts (18-50 years IRR = 0.68 95% CI 0.51-0.91; p < 0.009 and >50 years IRR = 0.48 95% CI 0.40-0.57; p < 0.0001). However, Indigenous patients had worse survival rates (18-50 years HR = 2.06 95% CI 1.36-3.11; p < 0.0007 and >50 years HR = 1.66 95% CI 1.32-2.08; p < 0.0001).ConclusionsThere is a trend towards an increased incidence of young-onset GI adenocarcinomas in the NT. Young Indigenous patients have lower incidence but worse survival across all GI subsites, highlighting significant health inequities in life expectancy. Targeted, culturally safe Indigenous community-focussed programs are needed for early detection and patient-centred management of GI adenocarcinomas.
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Project description:BackgroundMeningioma incidence was reported to have risen substantially in the United States during the first decade of the 21st century. There are few reports about subsequent incidence trends. This study provides updated data to investigate trends in meningioma incidence by demographic and tumor characteristics at diagnosis in the United states from 2004 to 2015.MethodsTrends in meningioma incidence were analyzed using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-18 (SEER-18) registry database of the National Cancer Institute. The joinpoint program was used to calculate annual percent change (APC) in incidence rates.ResultsThe overall incidence of meningioma increased by 4.6% (95% CI, 3.4-5.9) annually in 2004-2009, but remained stable from 2009 to 2015 (APC, 0; 95% CI, -0.8 to 0.8). Females (10.66 per 100 000 person-years) and blacks (9.52 per 100 000 person-years) had significant predominance in meningioma incidence. Incidence in many subgroups increased significantly up to 2009 and then remained stable until 2015. However, meningioma incidence in young and middle-aged people increased significantly throughout the entire time period from 2004 to 2015 (APC: 3.6% for <20-year-olds; 2.5% for 20-39-year-olds; 1.8% for 40-59-year-olds). The incidence of WHO II meningioma increased during 2011-2015 (APC = 5.4%), while the incidence of WHO III meningioma decreased during 2004-2015 (APC = -5.6%).ConclusionIn this study, the incidence of meningioma was found to be stable in recent years. Possible reasons for this finding include changes in population characteristics, the widespread use of diagnostic techniques, and changes in tumor classification and risk factors in the US population.
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Project description:ImportanceThe COVID-19 pandemic has had considerable mental health consequences for children and adolescents, including the exacerbation of previously diagnosed eating disorders. Whether the pandemic is a factor associated with the concomitant increase in new-onset anorexia nervosa or atypical anorexia nervosa remains unknown.ObjectiveTo assess the incidence and severity of newly diagnosed anorexia nervosa or atypical anorexia nervosa in a national sample of youth before and during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.Design, setting, and participantsThis repeated cross-sectional study analyzed new eating disorder assessments that were conducted at 6 pediatric tertiary-care hospitals in Canada between January 1, 2015, and November 30, 2020. Patients aged 9 to 18 years with a new anorexia nervosa or atypical anorexia nervosa diagnosis at the index assessment were included.ExposuresCOVID-19-associated public health confinement measures during the first wave of the pandemic (March 1 to November 30, 2020).Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcomes were the incidence and hospitalization rates within 7 days of de novo anorexia nervosa or atypical anorexia nervosa diagnosis. Event rate trends during the first wave were compared with trends in the 5-year prepandemic period (January 1, 2015, to February 28, 2020) using an interrupted time series with linear regression models. Demographic and clinical variables were compared using a χ2 test for categorical data and t tests for continuous data.ResultsOverall, 1883 children and adolescents with newly diagnosed anorexia nervosa or atypical anorexia nervosa (median [IQR] age, 15.9 [13.8-16.9] years; 1713 female patients [91.0%]) were included. Prepandemic anorexia nervosa or atypical anorexia nervosa diagnoses were stable over time (mean [SD], 24.5 [1.6] cases per month; β coefficient, 0.043; P = .33). New diagnoses increased during the first wave of the pandemic to a mean (SD) of 40.6 (20.1) cases per month with a steep upward trend (β coefficient, 5.97; P < .001). Similarly, hospitalizations for newly diagnosed patients increased from a mean (SD) of 7.5 (2.8) to 20.0 (9.8) cases per month, with a significant increase in linear trend (β coefficient, -0.008 vs 3.23; P < .001). These trends were more pronounced in Canadian provinces with higher rates of COVID-19 infections. Markers of disease severity were worse among patients who were diagnosed during the first wave rather than before the pandemic, including more rapid progression (mean [SD], 7.0 [4.2] months vs 9.8 [7.4] months; P < .001), greater mean (SD) weight loss (19.2% [9.4%] vs 17.5% [9.6%]; P = .01), and more profound bradycardia (mean [SD] heart rate, 57 [15.8] beats per minute vs 63 [15.9] beats per minute; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceThis cross-sectional study found a higher number of new diagnoses of and hospitalizations for anorexia nervosa or atypical anorexia nervosa in children and adolescents during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada. Research is needed to better understand the drivers and prognosis for these patients and to prepare for their mental health needs in the event of future pandemics or prolonged social isolation.
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