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Estimating the impact of lock-down, quarantine and sensitization in a COVID-19 outbreak: lessons from the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

ABSTRACT: In recent history, COVID-19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks currently affecting humanity globally. Using real data on the COVID-19 outbreak from 22 January 2020 to 30 March 2020, we developed a mathematical model to investigate the impact of control measures in reducing the spread of the disease. Analyses of the model were carried out to determine the dynamics. The results of the analyses reveal that, using the data from China, implementing all possible control measures best reduced the rate of secondary infections. However, quarantine (isolation) of infectious individuals is shown to have the most dominant effect. This possibility emphasizes the need for extensive testing due to the possible prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases.

SUBMITTER: Collins OC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7502247 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating the impact of lock-down, quarantine and sensitization in a COVID-19 outbreak: lessons from the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

Collins Obiora C OC Duffy Kevin J KJ

PeerJ 20200917

In recent history, COVID-19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks currently affecting humanity globally. Using real data on the COVID-19 outbreak from 22 January 2020 to 30 March 2020, we developed a mathematical model to investigate the impact of control measures in reducing the spread of the disease. Analyses of the model were carried out to determine the dynamics. The results of the analyses reveal that, using the data from China, implementing all possible control measures best red ...[more]

PMID: 32995089

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Psychological impact of mass quarantine on population during pandemics-The COVID-19 Lock-Down (COLD) study.

Project description:BackgroundQuarantine often is an unpleasant experience. The aim of this study is to explore the degree of psychological distress in terms of-Depression, Anxiety and Stress among the adult population in India during the strict 21 days mandatory lockdown. We hypothesize that quantification of psychological impact of current situation will help us to modify the policies and implementation strategies. This assessment might also help in future to keep targeted services in place, to cope up with the psychological distress of the quarantined population.MethodA cross sectional survey design was adopted to assess the psychological state of general population in India, during the COVID-19 mandatory lockdown period, with the help of a validated questionnaire.FindingsThe reported prevalence of depression was around 30.5%, which was the highest among the variables of psychological health. Anxiety was reported by 22.4%, followed by stress which was seen in 10.8% of respondents. In the third week the incidence of depression (37.8% versus 23.4%; p<0.001), anxiety (26.6% versus 18.2%; p<0.001) and stress (12.2% versus 9.3%; p<0.045) was reported to be significantly higher as compared to second week.InterpretationOur results suggest a progressively detrimental impact of lockdown on various aspects of psychological health. We noticed around eight to ten fold increase in the prevalence of depression (30.5%) and anxiety (22.4%) during lockdown, as compared to baseline statistics in Indian population (3·1-3·6% for depressive disorders and 3·0-3·5% for anxiety disorders).

| S-EPMC7580982 | biostudies-literature

Lower air pollution during COVID-19 lock-down: improving models and methods estimating ozone impacts on crops.

Project description:We suggest that the unprecedented and unintended decrease of emissions of air pollutants during the COVID-19 lock-down in 2020 could lead to declining seasonal ozone concentrations and positive impacts on crop yields. An initial assessment of the potential effects of COVID-19 emission reductions was made using a set of six scenarios that variously assumed annual European and global emission reductions of 30% and 50% for the energy, industry, road transport and international shipping sectors, and 80% for the aviation sector. The greatest ozone reductions during the growing season reached up to 12 ppb over crop growing regions in Asia and up to 6 ppb in North America and Europe for the 50% global reduction scenario. In Europe, ozone responses are more sensitive to emission declines in other continents, international shipping and aviation than to emissions changes within Europe. We demonstrate that for wheat the overall magnitude of ozone precursor emission changes could lead to yield improvements between 2% and 8%. The expected magnitude of ozone precursor emission reductions during the Northern Hemisphere growing season in 2020 presents an opportunity to test and improve crop models and experimentally based exposure response relationships of ozone impacts on crops, under real-world conditions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

| S-EPMC7536037 | biostudies-literature

The effect of nationwide quarantine on anxiety levels during the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

Project description:BackgroundIn the recent outbreak of COVID-19, many countries have enacted various kinds of quarantine measures to slow down the explosive spread of COVID-19. Although these measures were proven to be successful in stopping the outbreak in China, the potential adverse effects of countrywide quarantine have not been thoroughly investigated.MethodsIn this study, we performed an online survey to evaluate the psychological effects of quarantine using the Zung Self-rating Anxiety Scale in February 2020 when the outbreak had nearly peaked in China. Along with the anxiety scores, limited personal information, such as age, gender, region, education, occupation, and specifically, the type and duration of quarantine, was collected for analysis.ResultsFrom a total of 992 valid questionnaires from 23 provinces in China, clinically significant anxiety symptoms were observed in 9.58% of respondents according to clinical diagnostic standards in China. The specific groups of people showing higher levels of anxiety were (a) adolescents (<18 years); (b) respondents with education lower than junior high school; (c) people with chronic diseases; and (d) frontline medical personnel. Other characteristics, such as gender, marital status, region, and acquaintance with suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19, did not affect anxiety levels significantly. Respondents who experienced different forms of quarantine showed different anxiety levels. People undergoing centralized quarantine have higher levels of anxiety. Unexpectedly, longer durations of quarantine did not lead to a significant increase in anxiety level.ConclusionsOur results suggest a rather mild psychological influence caused by the countrywide quarantine during the COVID-19 outbreak in China and provide a reference for other countries and regions battling COVID-19.

| S-EPMC7821577 | biostudies-literature

Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China.

Project description:Background: A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has now spread to a number of countries worldwide. While sustained transmission chains of human-to-human transmission suggest high basic reproduction number R0, variation in the number of secondary transmissions (often characterised by so-called superspreading events) may be large as some countries have observed fewer local transmissions than others. Methods: We quantified individual-level variation in COVID-19 transmission by applying a mathematical model to observed outbreak sizes in affected countries. We extracted the number of imported and local cases in the affected countries from the World Health Organization situation report and applied a branching process model where the number of secondary transmissions was assumed to follow a negative-binomial distribution. Results: Our model suggested a high degree of individual-level variation in the transmission of COVID-19. Within the current consensus range of R0 (2-3), the overdispersion parameter k of a negative-binomial distribution was estimated to be around 0.1 (median estimate 0.1; 95% CrI: 0.05-0.2 for R0 = 2.5), suggesting that 80% of secondary transmissions may have been caused by a small fraction of infectious individuals (~10%). A joint estimation yielded likely ranges for R0 and k (95% CrIs: R0 1.4-12; k 0.04-0.2); however, the upper bound of R0 was not well informed by the model and data, which did not notably differ from that of the prior distribution. Conclusions: Our finding of a highly-overdispersed offspring distribution highlights a potential benefit to focusing intervention efforts on superspreading. As most infected individuals do not contribute to the expansion of an epidemic, the effective reproduction number could be drastically reduced by preventing relatively rare superspreading events.

| S-EPMC7338915 | biostudies-literature

COVID-19 Outbreak

Project description:COVID-19 Outbreak

| PRJNA615625 | ENA

Successful containment of a flight-imported COVID-19 outbreak through extensive contact tracing, systematic testing and mandatory quarantine: Lessons from Vietnam.

Project description:BackgroundThe importation of SARS-CoV-2 through air travel poses substantial risks to generate new COVID-19 outbreaks. Timely contact tracing is particularly crucial to limit onwards transmission in settings without established community transmission.MethodsWe conducted an in-depth analysis of the response to a big flight-associated COVID-19 outbreak in Vietnam in March 2020 that involved contact tracing, systematic testing and strict quarantine up to third generation contacts.Results183 primary contacts from the flight as well as 1000 secondary and 311 third generation contacts were traced, tested, and quarantined across 15 provinces across Vietnam. The protracted confirmation of the index case at 3 days and 19 h after arrival resulted in isolation/quarantine delays of 6.8 days (IQR 6.3-6.8) and 5.8 days (IQR 5.8-7.0) for primary and secondary cases, respectively, which generated 84.0 and 26.4 person-days of community exposure from primary and secondary cases, respectively. Nevertheless, only 5 secondary cases occurred.ConclusionsA large flight-related COVID-19 cluster was successfully contained through timely, systematic and comprehensive public health responses despite delayed index case identification. Multiagency collaboration and pre-established mechanisms are crucial for low and middle income countries like Vietnam to limit community transmission after COVID-19 importation through air travel.

| S-EPMC8149171 | biostudies-literature

Effects of prolonged incubation period and centralized quarantine on the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang, China: a modeling study.

Project description:BackgroundFrom 2 January to 14 February 2021, a local outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province, with a population of 10 million. We analyzed the characteristics of the local outbreak of COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang and evaluated the effects of serial interventions.MethodsPublicly available data, which included age, sex, date of diagnosis, and other patient information, were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang. The maximum likelihood method and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method were used to estimate the serial interval and incubation period, respectively. The impact of incubation period and different interventions were simulated using a well-fitted SEIR+q model.ResultsFrom 2 January to 14 February 2021, there were 869 patients with symptomatic COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang, and most cases (89.6%) were confirmed before 20 January. Overall, 40.2% of the cases were male, 16.3% were aged 0 to 19 years, and 21.9% were initially diagnosed as asymptomatic but then became symptomatic. The estimated incubation period was 11.6 days (95% CI 10.6, 12.7 days) and the estimated serial interval was 6.6 days (0.025th, 0.975th: 0.6, 20.0 days). The results of the SEIR+q model indicated that a longer incubation period led to a longer epidemic period. If the comprehensive quarantine measures were reduced by 10%, then the nucleic acid testing would need to increase by 20% or more to minimize the cumulative number of cases.ConclusionsIncubation period was longer than serial interval suggested that more secondary transmission may occur before symptoms onset. The long incubation period made it necessary to extend the isolation period to control the outbreak. Timely contact tracing and implementation of a centralized quarantine quickly contained this epidemic in Shijiazhuang. Large-scale nucleic acid testing also helped to identify cases and reduce virus transmission.

| S-EPMC8648499 | biostudies-literature

Centralized medical quarantine for imported COVID-19 in Shanghai, China.

Project description: Not available

| S-EPMC7529111 | biostudies-literature

Is compulsory home quarantine less effective than centralized quarantine in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak? Evidence from Hong Kong.

Project description:Faced with the global spread of COVID-19, the Hong Kong government imposed compulsory home quarantine on all overseas arrivals, while cities in mainland China and Macau adopted a more stringent centralized quarantine approach. This study evaluates the effectiveness of compulsory home quarantine as a means of pandemic control. Combining epidemiological data with traditional socioeconomic and meteorological data from over 250 cities, we employ the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to construct a counterfactual "synthetic Hong Kong". This model simulates the infection trends for a hypothetical situation in which HK adopts centralized quarantine measures, and compares them to actual infection numbers. Results suggest that home quarantine would have been less effective than centralized quarantine initially. However, the infection rate under home quarantine later converges with the counterfactual estimate under centralized quarantine (0.136% vs. 0.174%), suggesting similar efficacy in the later phase of implementation. Considering its minimal reliance on public resources, home quarantine with heightened enforcement may therefore be preferable to centralized quarantine in countries with limited public health resources. Home quarantine as a quarantine alternative balances public protection and individual freedom, while conserving resources, making it a more sustainable option for many cities.

| S-EPMC8327569 | biostudies-literature

Reductions in mortality resulting from COVID-19 quarantine measures in China.

Project description:BackgroundTo explore the impact of quarantine measures on the cause of death.MethodsWe use time series analysis with the data from death cause surveillance database of Suzhou from January 2017 to December 2019 to estimate the expected deaths from January to June 2020 and compare these expected deaths with the reported numbers of deaths.ResultsAfter the implementation of epidemic prevention measures in Suzhou in the first 3 months, overall number of all-cause deaths declined for 5.36, 7.54 and 7.02% compared with predicted numbers. The number of deaths from respiratory causes and traffic accidents declined shapely by 30.1 and 26.9%, totally. When quarantine measures were released (April-June), however, the observed numbers of total deaths exceeded the predicted deaths. People aged over 70 accounted for 91.6% of declined death number in respiratory causes and people aged over 60 accounted for 68.0% of declined death number in traffic accidents. Women over the age of 80 benefited the most from respiratory prevention (accounts for 41% of all reductions), whereas women aged over 60 benefited the most from traffic control (44%).ConclusionsOverall, the whole population benefited from the epidemic prevention measures especially elderly females. This study is a useful supplement to encourage the government to develop regular preventive measures under the era of normalized epidemic.

| S-EPMC7928732 | biostudies-literature

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