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Ecologic association between influenza and COVID-19 mortality rates in European countries.

ABSTRACT: Ecologic studies investigating COVID-19 mortality determinants, used to make predictions and design public health control measures, generally focused on population-based variable counterparts of individual-based risk factors. Influenza is not causally associated with COVID-19, but shares population-based determinants, such as similar incidence/mortality trends, transmission patterns, efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions, comorbidities and underdiagnosis. We investigated the ecologic association between influenza mortality rates and COVID-19 mortality rates in the European context. We considered the 3-year average influenza (2014-2016) and COVID-19 (31 May 2020) crude mortality rates in 34 countries using EUROSTAT and ECDC databases and performed correlation and regression analyses. The two variables - log transformed, showed significant Spearman's correlation ? = 0.439 (P = 0.01), and regression coefficients, b = 0.743 (95% confidence interval, 0.272-1.214; R2 = 0.244; P = 0.003), b = 0.472 (95% confidence interval, 0.067-0.878; R2 = 0.549; P = 0.02), unadjusted and adjusted for confounders (population size and cardiovascular disease mortality), respectively. Common significant determinants of both COVID-19 and influenza mortality rates were life expectancy, influenza vaccination in the elderly (direct associations), number of hospital beds per population unit and crude cardiovascular disease mortality rate (inverse associations). This analysis suggests that influenza mortality rates were independently associated with COVID-19 mortality rates in Europe, with implications for public health preparedness, and implies preliminary undetected SARS-CoV-2 spread in Europe.

SUBMITTER: Petti S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7506171 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Ecologic association between influenza and COVID-19 mortality rates in European countries.

Petti S S Cowling B J BJ

Epidemiology and infection 20200911

Ecologic studies investigating COVID-19 mortality determinants, used to make predictions and design public health control measures, generally focused on population-based variable counterparts of individual-based risk factors. Influenza is not causally associated with COVID-19, but shares population-based determinants, such as similar incidence/mortality trends, transmission patterns, efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions, comorbidities and underdiagnosis. We investigated the ecologic asso ...[more]

PMID: 32912363

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Project description:ImportanceSoft drinks are frequently consumed, but whether this consumption is associated with mortality risk is unknown and has been understudied in European populations to date.ObjectiveTo examine the association between total, sugar-sweetened, and artificially sweetened soft drink consumption and subsequent total and cause-specific mortality.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cohort study involved participants (n = 451 743 of the full cohort) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), an ongoing, large multinational cohort of people from 10 European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom), with participants recruited between January 1, 1992, and December 31, 2000. Excluded participants were those who reported cancer, heart disease, stroke, or diabetes at baseline; those with implausible dietary intake data; and those with missing soft drink consumption or follow-up information. Data analyses were performed from February 1, 2018, to October 1, 2018.ExposureConsumption of total, sugar-sweetened, and artificially sweetened soft drinks.Main outcomes and measuresTotal mortality and cause-specific mortality. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for other mortality risk factors.ResultsIn total, 521 330 individuals were enrolled. Of this total, 451 743 (86.7%) were included in the study, with a mean (SD) age of 50.8 (9.8) years and with 321 081 women (71.1%). During a mean (range) follow-up of 16.4 (11.1 in Greece to 19.2 in France) years, 41 693 deaths occurred. Higher all-cause mortality was found among participants who consumed 2 or more glasses per day (vs consumers of <1 glass per month) of total soft drinks (hazard ratio [HR], 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11-1.22; P < .001), sugar-sweetened soft drinks (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.16; P = .004), and artificially sweetened soft drinks (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.16-1.35; P < .001). Positive associations were also observed between artificially sweetened soft drinks and deaths from circulatory diseases (≥2 glasses per day vs <1 glass per month; HR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.30-1.78; P < .001) and between sugar-sweetened soft drinks and deaths from digestive diseases (≥1 glass per day vs <1 glass per month; HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.24-2.05; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that consumption of total, sugar-sweetened, and artificially sweetened soft drinks was positively associated with all-cause deaths in this large European cohort; the results are supportive of public health campaigns aimed at limiting the consumption of soft drinks.

Project description:BackgroundThe purpose of this analysis was to assess the variations in COVID-19 related mortality in relation to the time differences in the commencement of virus circulation and containment measures in the European Region.MethodsThe data for the current analysis (N = 50 countries) were retrieved from the John Hopkins University dataset on the 7th of May 2020, with countries as study units. A piecewise regression analysis was conducted with mortality and cumulative incidence rates introduced as dependent variables and time interval (days from the 22nd of January to the date when 100 first cases were reported) as the main predictor. The country average life expectancy at birth and outpatient contacts per person per year were statistically adjusted for in the regression model.ResultsMortality and incidence were strongly and inversely intercorrelated with days from January 22, respectively -0.83 (p<0.001) and -0.73 (p<0.001). Adjusting for average life expectancy and outpatients contacts per person per year, between days 33 to 50 from the 22nd of the January, the average mortality rate decreased by 30.1/million per day (95% CI: 22.7, 37.6, p<0.001). During interval 51 to 73 days, the change in mortality was no longer statistically significant but still showed a decreasing trend. A similar relationship with time interval was found for incidence. Life expectancy and outpatients contacts per person per year were not associated with mortality rate.ConclusionCountries in Europe that had the earliest COVID-19 circulation suffered the worst consequences in terms of health outcomes, specifically mortality. The drastic social isolation measures, quickly undertaken in response to those initial outbreaks appear effective, especially in Eastern European countries, where community circulation started after March 11th. The study demonstrates that efforts to delay the early spread of the virus may have saved an average 30 deaths daily per one million inhabitants.

Project description:Although the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH) Act has accelerated adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) among Medicaid providers, only half achieved Meaningful Use. Furthermore, Meaningful Use’ impact on reporting and/or clinical outcomes remains unknown. To address this deficit, we assessed the difference between Medicaid providers who did and did not achieve Meaningful Use regarding Florida county-level cumulative COVID-19 death, case and case fatality rates (CFR), accounting for county-level demographics, socioeconomic and clinical markers, and healthcare environment. We found that cumulative incidence rates of COVID-19 deaths and CFRs were significantly different between the 5025 Medicaid providers not achieving Meaningful Use and the 3723 achieving Meaningful Use (mean 0.8334/1000 population; SD = 0.3489 vs. mean = 0.8216/1000; SD = 0.3227, respectively) (P = .01). CFRs were .01797 and .01781, respectively, P = .04. County-level characteristics independently associated with increased COVID-19 death rates and CFRs include greater concentrations of persons of African American or Black race, lower median household income, higher unemployment, and higher concentrations of those living in poverty and without health insurance (all P < .001). In accordance with other studies, social determinants of health were independently associated with clinical outcomes. Our findings also suggest that the association between Florida counties’ public health outcomes and Meaningful Use achievement may have had less to do with using EHRs for reporting of clinical outcomes and more to do with using EHRs for coordination of care—a key measure of quality. The Florida Medicaid Promoting Interoperability Program which incentivized Medicaid providers towards achieving Meaningful Use, has demonstrated success regarding both rates of adoption and clinical outcomes. Because the Program ends in 2021, we support programs such as HealthyPeople 2030 Health IT which address the remaining half of Florida Medicaid providers who have not yet achieved Meaningful Use. Author summary Our study investigates whether government support during 2012–2018 to increase technology among Medicaid providers to implement electronic health records is associated with reported COVID-19 death and case rates. We found that reported cumulative COVID-19 death rates were significantly greater in counties where more providers lacked the technology. Case rates were not associated with providers’ access to this technology. Counties with greater percentages of residents who are African American/Black, unemployed, living in poverty, underinsured and with histories of chronic lower respiratory disease, influenza or pneumonia were associated with worse clinical outcomes. Our findings also suggest that this technology may have been used primarily to coordinate patient care—a key quality indicator, rather than for reporting outcomes to public health agencies. Because program year 2021 marked the end of the Florida Promoting Interoperability Incentive Program, our findings provide baseline data to extend this support beyond 2021 in alignment with the Healthy People 2030 health information technology objectives. Increasing the proportion of office based Medicaid providers using advanced EHRs functions will help minimize an emerging “digital divide” between the quality of care provided to the nation’s most vulnerable patients who access care from Medicaid providers not having achieved meaningful use vs. those Medicaid providers using advanced EHR functions.

Project description:BackgroundTo integrate immigrants into their societies, European countries have adopted different types of policies, which may influence health through both material and psychosocial determinants. Recent studies have suggested poorer health outcomes for immigrants living in countries with poorly rated integration policies.ObjectiveTo analyse mortality differences of immigrants from the same country of origin living in countries with distinct integration policy contexts.MethodsFrom the mortality dataset collected in the Migrant Ethnic Health Observatory (MEHO) project, we chose the Netherlands (linked data from 1996-2006), France (unlinked; 2005-2007) and Denmark (linked; 1992-2001) as representatives of the inclusive, assimilationist and exclusionist policy models, respectively, based on the Migrant Integration Policy Index. We calculated for each country sex- and age-standardized mortality rates for Turkish-, Moroccan- and local-born populations aged 20-69 years. Poisson regression was used to estimate the mortality rate ratios (MRRs) for cross-country and within-country comparisons. The analyses were further stratified by age group and cause of death.ResultsCompared with their peers in the Netherlands, Turkish-born immigrants had higher all-cause mortality in Denmark (MRR men 1.92; 95% CI 1.74-2.13 and women 2.11; 1.80-2.47) but lower in France (men 0.64; 0.59-0.69 and women 0.58; 0.51-0.67). A similar pattern emerged for Moroccan-born immigrants. The relative differences between immigrants and the local-born population were also largest in Denmark and lowest in France (e.g., Turkish-born men MRR 1.52; 95% CI 1.38-1.67 and 0.62; 0.58-0.66, respectively). These patterns were consistent across all age groups, and more marked for cardiovascular diseases.ConclusionsAlthough confounders and data comparability issues (e.g., French cross-sectional data) may affect the findings, this study suggests that different macro-level policy contexts may influence immigrants' mortality. Comparable mortality registration systems across Europe along with detailed socio-demographic information on immigrants may help to better assess this association.

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Ecologic association between influenza and COVID-19 mortality rates in European countries.

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Ecologic association between influenza and COVID-19 mortality rates in European countries.

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