Dataset Information

Estimating the impact of mobility patterns on COVID-19 infection rates in 11 European countries.

ABSTRACT:

Background

As governments across Europe have issued non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing and school closing, the mobility patterns in these countries have changed. Most states have implemented similar NPIs at similar time points. However, it is likely different countries and populations respond differently to the NPIs and that these differences cause mobility patterns and thereby the epidemic development to change.

Methods

We build a Bayesian model that estimates the number of deaths on a given day dependent on changes in the basic reproductive number, R ₀, due to differences in mobility patterns. We utilise mobility data from Google mobility reports using five different categories: retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, transit stations, workplace and residential. The importance of each mobility category for predicting changes in R ₀ is estimated through the model.

Findings

The changes in mobility have a considerable overlap with the introduction of governmental NPIs, highlighting the importance of government action for population behavioural change. The shift in mobility in all categories shows high correlations with the death rates 1 month later. Reduction of movement within the grocery and pharmacy sector is estimated to account for most of the decrease in R ₀.

Interpretation

Our model predicts 3-week epidemic forecasts, using real-time observations of changes in mobility patterns, which can provide governments with direct feedback on the effects of their NPIs. The model predicts the changes in a majority of the countries accurately but overestimates the impact of NPIs in Sweden and Denmark and underestimates them in France and Belgium. We also note that the exponential nature of all epidemiological models based on the basic reproductive number, R ₀ cause small errors to have extensive effects on the predicted outcome.

SUBMITTER: Bryant P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7500353 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Estimating the impact of mobility patterns on COVID-19 infection rates in 11 European countries.

Bryant Patrick P Elofsson Arne A

PeerJ 20200915

<h4>Background</h4>As governments across Europe have issued non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing and school closing, the mobility patterns in these countries have changed. Most states have implemented similar NPIs at similar time points. However, it is likely different countries and populations respond differently to the NPIs and that these differences cause mobility patterns and thereby the epidemic development to change.<h4>Methods</h4>We build a Bayesian model tha ...[more]

PMID: 32983643

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Project description:BackgroundOn January 21, 2020, the World Health Organization reported the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which rapidly evolved to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the virus has also rapidly spread among Latin American, Caribbean, and African countries.ObjectiveThe first aim of this study is to identify new emerging COVID-19 clusters over time and space (from January 21 to mid-May 2020) in Latin American, Caribbean, and African regions, using a prospective space-time scan measurement approach. The second aim is to assess the impact of real-time population mobility patterns between January 21 and May 18, 2020, under the implemented government interventions, measurements, and policy restrictions on COVID-19 spread among those regions and worldwide.MethodsWe created a global COVID-19 database, of 218 countries and territories, merging the World Health Organization daily case reports with other measures such as population density and country income levels for January 21 to May 18, 2020. A score of government policy interventions was created for low, intermediate, high, and very high interventions. The population's mobility patterns at the country level were obtained from Google community mobility reports. The prospective space-time scan statistic method was applied in five time periods between January and May 2020, and a regression mixed model analysis was used.ResultsWe found that COVID-19 emerging clusters within these five periods of time increased from 7 emerging clusters to 28 by mid-May 2020. We also detected various increasing and decreasing relative risk estimates of COVID-19 spread among Latin American, Caribbean, and African countries within the period of analysis. Globally, population mobility to parks and similar leisure areas during at least a minimum of implemented intermediate-level control policies (when compared to low-level control policies) was related to accelerated COVID-19 spread. Results were almost consistent when regional stratified analysis was applied. In addition, worldwide population mobility due to working during high implemented control policies and very high implemented control policies, when compared to low-level control policies, was related to positive COVID-19 spread.ConclusionsThe prospective space-time scan is an approach that low-income and middle-income countries could use to detect emerging clusters in a timely manner and implement specific control policies and interventions to slow down COVID-19 transmission. In addition, real-time population mobility obtained from crowdsourced digital data could be useful for current and future targeted public health and mitigation policies at a global and regional level.

Project description:Aim To evaluate the effect of vaccination/booster administration dynamics on the reduction of excess mortality during COVID-19 infection waves in European countries. Methods We selected twenty-nine countries from the OurWorldInData project database according to their population size of more than one million and the availability of information on dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants during COVID-19 infection waves. After selection, we categorized countries according to their ″faster″ or ″slower″ vaccination rates. The first category included countries that reached 60% of vaccinated residents by October 2021 and 70% by January 2022. The second or ″slower″ category included all other countries. In the first or ″faster″ category, two groups, ″boosters faster'' and ″boosters slower″ were created. Pearson correlation analysis, linear regression, and chi-square test for categorical data were used to identify the association between vaccination rate and excess mortality. We chose time intervals corresponding to the dominance of viral variants: Wuhan, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1/2. Results The ″faster″ countries, as opposed to the ″slower″ ones, did better in protecting their residents from mortality during all periods of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and even before vaccination. Perhaps higher GDP per capita contributed to their better performance throughout the pandemic. During mass vaccination, when the Delta variant prevailed, the contrast in mortality rates between the ″faster″ and ″slower″ categories was strongest. The average excess mortality in the ″slower″ countries was nearly 5 times higher than in the ″faster″ countries, and the odds ratio (OR) was 4.9 (95% CI 4.4 to 5.4). Slower booster rates were associated with significantly higher mortality during periods dominated by Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, with an OR of 2.6 (CI 95%. 2.1 to 3.3). Among the European countries we analyzed, Denmark, Norway, and Ireland did best, with a pandemic mortality rate of 0.1% of the population or less. By comparison, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Russia had a much higher mortality rate of up to 1% of the population. Thus, slow vaccination and booster administration was a major factor contributing to an order of magnitude higher excess mortality in ″slower″ European countries compared to more rapidly immunized countries.

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Dataset Information

Estimating the impact of mobility patterns on COVID-19 infection rates in 11 European countries.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Publications

Estimating the impact of mobility patterns on COVID-19 infection rates in 11 European countries.

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