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The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:In the Republic of Korea (ROK), social distancing and public behavior changes mitigated COVID-19 spread. However, a second wave of the epidemic is expected in the fall if neither vaccine nor antiviral drugs become available. This study investigated the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures on short- and long-term outbreak dynamics. METHODS:A mathematical model based on Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model is developed considering isolated and behavior-changed groups. Using the least-squares fitting method, transmission and behavior change rates were estimated using cases reported from February 16 to April 20, 2020. FINDINGS:The estimated transmission rate of COVID-19 was 4·6180 and behavior change rate was 2·6044. The model predicted the number of new cases to continuously decrease, with less than one case expected after May 6, 2020. Concurrently, a 25% reduction in behavioral changes during the outbreak would increase the case count by 60,000, resulting in 4,000 cases at maximum, exceeding the medical system's capacity. As behavioral restrictions are eased, local transmission will likely increase, with forecasted second wave peak in October 2020. INTERPRETATION:Social distancing and public behavior changes have curbed the spread of COVID-19 in the ROK. Mathematical modeling demonstrates the importance of these measures in reducing and delaying outbreaks. Nevertheless, non-pharmaceutical interventions cannot eliminate the disease. In the future, vaccines and antiviral treatments combined with social distancing and public behavior changes will be paramount to ending COVID-19 epidemic.

SUBMITTER: Kim S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7514094 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea.

Kim Soyoung S Ko Youngsuk Y Kim Yae-Jean YJ Jung Eunok E

PloS one 20200924 9

<h4>Background</h4>In the Republic of Korea (ROK), social distancing and public behavior changes mitigated COVID-19 spread. However, a second wave of the epidemic is expected in the fall if neither vaccine nor antiviral drugs become available. This study investigated the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures on short- and long-term outbreak dynamics.<h4>Methods</h4>A mathematical model based on Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model is developed considering isolated and behavior-changed ...[more]

PMID: 32970716

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Project description:BackgroundHuman mobility among residential locations can drive dengue virus (DENV) transmission dynamics. Recently, it was shown that individuals with symptomatic DENV infection exhibit significant changes in their mobility patterns, spending more time at home during illness. This change in mobility is predicted to increase the risk of acquiring infection for those living with or visiting the ill individual. It has yet to be considered, however, whether social contacts are also changing their mobility, either by socially distancing themselves from the infectious individual or increasing contact to help care for them. Social, or physical, distancing and caregiving could have diverse yet important impacts on DENV transmission dynamics; therefore, it is necessary to better understand the nature and frequency of these behaviors including their effect on mobility.Methodology and principal findingsThrough community-based febrile illness surveillance and RT-PCR infection confirmation, 67 DENV positive (DENV+) residents were identified in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Using retrospective interviews, data were collected on visitors and home-based care received during the illness. While 15% of participants lost visitors during their illness, 22% gained visitors; overall, 32% of all individuals (particularly females) received visitors while symptomatic. Caregiving was common (90%), particularly caring by housemates (91%) and caring for children (98%). Twenty-eight percent of caregivers changed their behavior enough to have their work (and, likely, mobility patterns) affected. This was significantly more likely when caring for individuals with low "health-related quality of well-being" during illness (Fisher's Exact, p = 0.01).Conclusions/significanceOur study demonstrates that social contacts of individuals with dengue modify their patterns of visitation and caregiving. The observed mobility changes could impact a susceptible individual's exposure to virus or a presymptomatic/clinically inapparent individual's contribution to onward transmission. Accounting for changes in social contact mobility is imperative in order to get a more accurate understanding of DENV transmission.

Project description:BACKGROUND: In order to control malaria, it is important to understand the genetic structure of the parasites in each endemic area. Plasmodium vivax is widely distributed in the tropical to temperate regions of Asia and South America, but effective strategies for its elimination have yet to be designed. In South Korea, for example, indigenous vivax malaria was eliminated by the late 1970s, but re-emerged from 1993. We estimated the population structure and temporal dynamics of transmission of P. vivax in South Korea using microsatellite DNA markers. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyzed 255 South Korean P. vivax isolates collected from 1994 to 2008, based on 10 highly polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci of the P. vivax genome. Allelic data were obtained for the 87 isolates and their microsatellite haplotypes were determined based on a combination of allelic data of the loci. In total, 40 haplotypes were observed. There were two predominant haplotypes: H16 and H25. H16 was observed in 9 isolates (10%) from 1996 to 2005, and H25 in 27 (31%) from 1995 to 2003. These results suggested that the recombination rate of P. vivax in South Korea, a temperate country, was lower than in tropical areas where identical haplotypes were rarely seen in the following year. Next, we estimated the relationships among the 40 haplotypes by eBURST analysis. Two major groups were found: one composed of 36 isolates (41%) including H25; the other of 20 isolates (23%) including H16. Despite the low recombination rate, other new haplotypes that are genetically distinct from the 2 groups have also been observed since 1997 (H27). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggested a continual introduction of P. vivax from other population sources, probably North Korea. Molecular epidemiology using microsatellite DNA of the P. vivax population is effective for assessing the population structure and transmission dynamics of the parasites--information that can assist in the elimination of vivax malaria in endemic areas.

Project description:BackgroundThe absence of effective antiviral medications and vaccines increased the focus on non-pharmaceutical preventive behaviors for mitigating against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To examine the current status of non-pharmaceutical preventive behaviors practiced during the COVID-19 outbreak and factors affecting behavioral activities, we compared to the 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea.MethodsThis was a serial cross-sectional population-based study in Korea with four surveys conducted on June 2 and 25, 2015 (MERS-CoV surveys), and February 4, and April 2, 2020 (COVID-19 surveys). Of 25,711 participants selected using random digit dialing numbers, 4,011 participants (aged ≥ 18 years) were successfully interviewed, for the 2020 COVID-19 (n = 2,002) and 2015 MERS-CoV (n = 2,009) epidemics were included. Participants were selected post-stratification by sex, age, and province. The total number of weighted cases in this survey equaled the total number of unweighted cases at the national level. We measured the levels of preventive behaviors (social distancing [avoiding physical contact with others]), and practicing transmission-reducing behaviors such as wearing face mask and handwashing.ResultsBetween the surveys, respondents who reported practicing social distancing increased from 41.9%-58.2% (MERS-CoV) to 83.4%-92.3% (COVID-19). The response rate for the four surveys ranged between 13.7% and 17.7%. Practicing transmission-reducing behaviors (wearing face masks and handwashing) at least once during COVID-19 (78.8%, 80.2%) also increased compared to that during MERS-CoV (15.5%, 60.3%). The higher affective risk perception groups were more likely to practice transmission-reducing measures (adjusted odds ratio, 3.24-4.81; 95 confidence interval, 1.76-6.96) during both COVID-19 and MERS-CoV.ConclusionThe study findings suggest markedly increased proportions of non-pharmaceutical behavioral practices evenly across all subgroups during the two different novel virus outbreaks in Korea. Strategic interventions are needed to attempt based on preventive behavior works.

Dataset Information

The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea.

Publications

The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea.

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