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Predictive Efficacy of Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 Score in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit of Rural Hospital

ABSTRACT: Abstract Aims and objectives Utility of pediatric logistic organ dysfunction-2 (PELOD-2) score on day 1 within 1 hour of admission in predicting mortality in children admitted in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Background Various scoring systems aid to evaluate the patient's mortality risk in the intensive care unit (ICU) by assigning a score and predicting the outcome. Critically ill children are characterized by large variations in the normal body homeostasis. These variations can be estimated by the change of the physiological variables from the normal range. Various scores are constructed from deviations of these changed variables. One such score, the PELOD-2 score, is used to predict mortality of patients admitted in PICU. Materials and methods This study was carried out at a tertiary care center in central India to study the utility of PELOD-2 score within 1 hour of admission to predict mortality in patients admitted in PICU. Results Total 129 patients were included in this study with mean age of 67 months. The system with highest admission was central nervous system with 42 children and 16.6% mortality, whereas those 7 patients with hematological system involvement had highest mortality of 28.5%. The mortality rate was 15.55%. In our study for PELOD-2 within 24 hours of admission, the area under receiver operating curve was 0.87 and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test was p = 0.42. Conclusion Pediatric logistic organ dysfunction-2 score in our study had significant association with mortality along with the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showing a good prediction of mortality. How to cite this article Deshmukh T, Varma A, Damke S, Meshram R. Predictive Efficacy of Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 Score in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit of Rural Hospital. Indian J Crit Care Med 2020;24(8):701–704.

SUBMITTER: Deshmukh T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7519618 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:Develop and test the performance of electronic version of the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh Pediatric Risk of Mortality-IV and electronic version of the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 scores. DESIGN:Retrospective, single-center cohort derived from structured electronic health record data. SETTING:Large, quaternary PICU at a freestanding, university-affiliated children's hospital. PATIENTS:All encounters with a PICU admission between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2017, identified using electronic definitions of inpatient encounter. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:The main outcome was predictive validity of each score for hospital mortality, assessed as model discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was examined with the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve and the area under the precision-recall curve. Calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and calculation of a standardized mortality ratio. Models were recalibrated with new regression coefficients in a training subset of 75% of encounters selected randomly from all years of the cohort and the calibrated models were tested in the remaining 25% of the cohort. Content validity was assessed by examining correlation between electronic versions of the scores and prospectively calculated data (electronic version of the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh Pediatric Risk of Mortality-IV) and an alternative informatics approach (Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 score). The cohort included 21,335 encounters. Correlation coefficients indicated strong agreement between different methods of score calculation. Uncalibrated area under the receiver operating characteristics curves were 0.96 (95% CI, 0.95-0.97) for electronic version of the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 score and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.85-0.89) for electronic version of the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh Pediatric Risk of Mortality-IV for inpatient mortality. The uncalibrated electronic version of the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh Pediatric Risk of Mortality-IV standardized mortality ratio was 0.63 (0.59-0.66), demonstrating strong agreement with previous, prospective evaluation at the study center. The uncalibrated electronic version of the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 score standardized mortality ratio was 0.20 (0.18-0.21). All models required recalibrating (all Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, p < 0.001) and subsequently demonstrated acceptable goodness-of-fit when examined in a test subset (n = 5,334) of the cohort. CONCLUSIONS:Electronically derived intensive care acuity scores demonstrate very good to excellent discrimination and can be calibrated to institutional outcomes. This approach can facilitate both performance improvement and research initiatives and may offer a scalable strategy for comparison of interinstitutional PICU outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundMultiple organ dysfunction is a common cause of morbidity and mortality in intensive care units (ICUs). Original development of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was not to predict outcome, but to describe temporal changes in organ dysfunction in critically ill patients. Organ dysfunction scoring may be a reasonable surrogate outcome in clinical trials but further exploration of the impact of case mix on the temporal sequence of organ dysfunction is required. Our aim was to compare temporal changes in SOFA scores between hospital survivors and non-survivors.MethodsWe performed a population-based observational retrospective cohort study of critically ill patients admitted from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2013, to 4 multisystem adult intensive care units (ICUs) in Calgary, Canada. The primary outcome was temporal changes in daily SOFA scores during the first 14 days of ICU admission. SOFA scores were modeled between hospital survivors and non-survivors using generalized estimating equations (GEE) and were also stratified by admission SOFA (≤ 11 versus > 11).ResultsThe cohort consisted of 20,007 patients with at least one SOFA score and was mostly male (58.2%) with a median age of 59 (interquartile range [IQR] 44-72). Median ICU length of stay was 3.5 (IQR 1.7-7.5) days. ICU and hospital mortality were 18.5% and 25.5%, respectively. Temporal change in SOFA scores varied by survival and admission SOFA score in a complicated relationship. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve using admission SOFA as a predictor of hospital mortality was 0.77. The hospital mortality rate was 5.6% for patients with an admission SOFA of 0-2 and 94.4% with an admission SOFA of 20-24. There was an approximately linear increase in hospital mortality for SOFA scores of 3-19 (range 8.7-84.7%).ConclusionsExamining the clinical course of organ dysfunction in a large non-selective cohort of patients provides insight into the utility of SOFA. We have demonstrated that hospital outcome is associated with both admission SOFA and the temporal rate of change in SOFA after admission. It is necessary to further explore the impact of additional clinical factors on the clinical course of SOFA with large datasets.

Project description:BackgroundThe optimal level of care for hemodynamically stable patients with isolated blunt hepatic, renal, or splenic injuries (solid organ injuries [SOIs]) is unknown. We sought to characterize interhospital variability in intensive care unit (ICU) admission of such patients and to determine whether greater hospital-level ICU use would be associated with improved outcomes.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study using the 2015 and 2016 National Trauma Data Bank. We included adult patients with blunt trauma with SOIs with an Abbreviated Injury Scale score of 2 to 4. We excluded patients with other significant injuries, hypotension, or another indication for ICU admission, and hospitals with less than 10 eligible patients. We categorized hospitals into quartiles based on the proportion of eligible patients admitted to an ICU. The primary outcome was a composite of organ failure (cardiac arrest, acute lung injury/acute respiratory failure, or acute kidney injury), infection (sepsis, pneumonia, or catheter-related blood stream infection), or death during hospitalization.ResultsAmong 14,312 patients at 444 facilities, 7,225 (50%), 5,050 (35%), and 3,499 (24%) had splenic, hepatic, and renal injuries, respectively. The median proportion of ICU use was 44% (interquartile range, 27-59%, range 0-95%). The composite outcome occurred in 180 patients (1.3%), with death in 76 (0.5%), organ failure in 97 (0.7%), and infection in 53 (0.4%). Relative to hospitals with the lowest ICU use (quartile 1), greater hospital-level ICU use was not associated with decreased likelihood of the composite outcome (adjusted odds ratios, 1.31; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.88-1.95; 0.81; 95% CI, 0.52-1.26; and 0.94; 95% CI, 0.62-1.43 for quartiles 2-4, respectively) or its components. Unplanned ICU transfer was no more likely with lower hospital-level ICU use.ConclusionAdmission location of stable patients with isolated mild to moderate abdominal SOIs is variable across hospitals, but hospitalization at a facility with greater ICU use is not associated with substantially improved outcomes.Level of evidenceTherapeutic/care management, Level IV.

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Predictive Efficacy of Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 Score in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit of Rural Hospital

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