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Early Prediction of Multiple Organ Dysfunction in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

ABSTRACT: Objective: The objective of the study is to build models for early prediction of risk for developing multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) patients. Design: The design of the study is a retrospective observational cohort study. Setting: The setting of the study is at a single academic PICU at the Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, MD. Patients: The patients included in the study were <18 years of age admitted to the PICU between July 2014 and October 2015. Measurements and main results: Organ dysfunction labels were generated every minute from preceding 24-h time windows using the International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference (IPSCC) and Proulx et al. MOD criteria. Early MOD prediction models were built using four machine learning methods: random forest, XGBoost, GLMBoost, and Lasso-GLM. An optimal threshold learned from training data was used to detect high-risk alert events (HRAs). The early prediction models from all methods achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve ≥0.91 for both IPSCC and Proulx criteria. The best performance in terms of maximum F1-score was achieved with random forest (sensitivity: 0.72, positive predictive value: 0.70, F1-score: 0.71) and XGBoost (sensitivity: 0.8, positive predictive value: 0.81, F1-score: 0.81) for IPSCC and Proulx criteria, respectively. The median early warning time was 22.7 h for random forest and 37 h for XGBoost models for IPSCC and Proulx criteria, respectively. Applying spectral clustering on risk-score trajectories over 24 h following early warning provided a high-risk group with ≥0.93 positive predictive value. Conclusions: Early predictions from risk-based patient monitoring could provide more than 22 h of lead time for MOD onset, with ≥0.93 positive predictive value for a high-risk group identified pre-MOD.

SUBMITTER: Bose SN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8415553 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundMultiple organ dysfunction is a common cause of morbidity and mortality in intensive care units (ICUs). Original development of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was not to predict outcome, but to describe temporal changes in organ dysfunction in critically ill patients. Organ dysfunction scoring may be a reasonable surrogate outcome in clinical trials but further exploration of the impact of case mix on the temporal sequence of organ dysfunction is required. Our aim was to compare temporal changes in SOFA scores between hospital survivors and non-survivors.MethodsWe performed a population-based observational retrospective cohort study of critically ill patients admitted from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2013, to 4 multisystem adult intensive care units (ICUs) in Calgary, Canada. The primary outcome was temporal changes in daily SOFA scores during the first 14 days of ICU admission. SOFA scores were modeled between hospital survivors and non-survivors using generalized estimating equations (GEE) and were also stratified by admission SOFA (≤ 11 versus > 11).ResultsThe cohort consisted of 20,007 patients with at least one SOFA score and was mostly male (58.2%) with a median age of 59 (interquartile range [IQR] 44-72). Median ICU length of stay was 3.5 (IQR 1.7-7.5) days. ICU and hospital mortality were 18.5% and 25.5%, respectively. Temporal change in SOFA scores varied by survival and admission SOFA score in a complicated relationship. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve using admission SOFA as a predictor of hospital mortality was 0.77. The hospital mortality rate was 5.6% for patients with an admission SOFA of 0-2 and 94.4% with an admission SOFA of 20-24. There was an approximately linear increase in hospital mortality for SOFA scores of 3-19 (range 8.7-84.7%).ConclusionsExamining the clinical course of organ dysfunction in a large non-selective cohort of patients provides insight into the utility of SOFA. We have demonstrated that hospital outcome is associated with both admission SOFA and the temporal rate of change in SOFA after admission. It is necessary to further explore the impact of additional clinical factors on the clinical course of SOFA with large datasets.

Project description:BackgroundMultiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) occurs in the setting of a variety of pathologies including infection and trauma. Some patients decompensate and require Veno-Arterial extra corporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) as a palliating manoeuvre for recovery of cardiopulmonary function. The molecular mechanisms driving progression from MODS to cardiopulmonary collapse remain incompletely understood, and no biomarkers have been defined to identify those MODS patients at highest risk for progression to requiring ECMO support.MethodsWhole blood RNA-seq profiling was performed for 23 MODS patients at three time points during their ICU stay (at diagnosis of MODS, 72 hours after, and 8 days later), as well as four healthy controls undergoing routine sedation. Of the 23 MODS patients, six required ECMO support (ECMO patients). The predictive power of conventional demographic and clinical features was quantified for differentiating the MODS and ECMO patients. We then compared the performance of markers derived from transcriptomic profiling including [1] transcriptomically imputed leukocyte subtype distribution, [2] relevant published gene signatures and [3] a novel differential gene expression signature computed from our data set. The predictive power of our novel gene expression signature was then validated using independently published datasets.FindingNone of the five demographic characteristics and 14 clinical features, including The Paediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction (PELOD) score, could predict deterioration of MODS to ECMO at baseline. From previously published sepsis signatures, only the signatures positively associated with patient's mortality could differentiate ECMO patients from MODS patients, when applied to our transcriptomic dataset (P-value ranges from 0.01 to 0.04, Student's test). Deconvolution of bulk RNA-Seq samples suggested that lower neutrophil counts were associated with increased risk of progression from MODS to ECMO (P-value = 0.03, logistic regression, OR=2.82 [95% CI 0.63 - 12.45]). A total of 30 genes were differentially expressed between ECMO and MODS patients at baseline (log2 fold change ≥ 1 or ≤ -1 with false discovery rate ≤ 0.01). These genes are involved in protein maintenance and epigenetic-related processes. Further univariate analysis of these 30 genes suggested a signature of seven DE genes associated with ECMO (OR > 3.0, P-value ≤ 0.05, logistic regression). Notably, this contains a set of histone marker genes, including H1F0, HIST2H3C, HIST1H2AI, HIST1H4, HIST1H2BL and HIST1H1B, that were highly expressed in ECMO. A risk score derived from expression of these genes differentiated ECMO and MODS patients in our dataset (AUC = 0.91, 95% CI 0.79-1.00, P-value = 7e-04, logistic regression) as well as validation dataset (AUC= 0.73, 95% CI 0.53-0.93, P-value = 2e-02, logistic regression).InterpretationThis study demonstrates that transcriptomic features can serve as indicators of severity that could be superior to traditional methods of ascertaining acuity in MODS patients. Analysis of expression of signatures identified in this study could help clinicians in the diagnosis and prognostication of MODS patients after arrival to the Hospital.

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Early Prediction of Multiple Organ Dysfunction in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

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