Dataset Information

Epidemiology of age-dependent prevalence of Bovine Herpes Virus Type 1 (BoHV-1) in dairy herds with and without vaccination

ABSTRACT: Many studies report age as a risk factor for BoHV-1 infection or seropositivity. However, it is unclear whether this pattern reflects true epidemiological causation or is a consequence of study design and other issues. Here, we seek to understand the age-related dynamics of BoHV-1 seroprevalence in seasonal calving Irish dairy herds and provide decision support for the design and implementation of effective BoHV-1 testing strategies. We analysed seroprevalence data from dairy herds taken during two Irish seroprevalence surveys conducted between 2010 and 2017. Age-dependent seroprevalence profiles were constructed for herds that were seropositive and unvaccinated. Some of these profiles revealed a sudden increase in seroprevalence between adjacent age-cohorts, from absent or low to close to 100% of seropositive animals. By coupling the outcome of our data analysis with simulation output of an individual-based model at the herd scale, we have shown that these sudden increases are related to extensive virus circulation within a herd for a limited time, which may then subsequently remain latent over the following years. BoHV-1 outbreaks in dairy cattle herds affect animals independent of age and lead to almost 100% seroconversion in all age groups, or at least in all animals within a single epidemiological unit. In the absence of circulating infection, there is a year-on-year increase in the age-cohort at which seroprevalence changes from low to high. The findings of this study inform recommendations regarding testing regimes in the context of contingency planning or an eradication programme in seasonal calving dairy herds.

SUBMITTER: Brock J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7520977 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important disease for dairy productivity, as well as having the potential for zoonotic transmission. Previous prevalence studies of bTB in the dairy sector in central Ethiopia have suggested high prevalence, however, they have been limited to relatively small scale surveys, raising concerns about their representativeness. Here we carried out a cross sectional one-stage cluster sampling survey taking the dairy herd as a cluster to estimate the prevalence of bTB in dairy farms in six areas of central Ethiopia. The survey, which to date is by far the largest in the area in terms of the number of dairy farms, study areas and risk factors explored, took place from March 2016 to May 2017. This study combined tuberculin skin testing and the collection of additional herd and animal level data by questionnaire to identify potential risk factors contributing to bTB transmission. We applied the single intradermal cervical comparative tuberculin (SICCT) test using >4mm cut-off for considering an individual animal as positive for bTB; at least one reactor animal was required for a herd to be considered bTB positive. Two hundred ninety-nine dairy herds in the six study areas were randomly selected, from which 5,675 cattle were tested. The overall prevalence of bTB after standardisation for herd-size in the population was 54.4% (95% CI 48.7-60%) at the herd level, and it was 24.5% (95% CI 23.3-25.8) at the individual animal level. A Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) with herd and area as random effect was used to explore risk factors association with bTB status. We found that herd size, age, bTB history at farm, and breed were significant risk factors for animals to be SICCT positive. Animals from large herds had 8.3 times the odds of being tuberculin reactor (OR: 8.3, p-value:0.008) as compared to animals from small herds. The effect of age was strongest for animals 8-10 years of age (the oldest category) having 8.9 times the odds of being tuberculin reactors (OR: 8.9, p-value:<0.001) compared to the youngest category. The other identified significant risk factors were bTB history at farm (OR: 5.2, p-value:0.003) and cattle breed (OR: 2.5, p-value: 0.032). Our study demonstrates a high prevalence of bTB in central Ethiopia but with a large variation in within-herd prevalence between herds, findings that lays an important foundation for the future development of control strategies.

Project description:BackgroundInfections with bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) and bovine coronavirus (BoCV) are endemic to the cattle populations in most countries, causing respiratory and/or enteric disease. It has been demonstrated that herds can remain free from these infections for several years also in high prevalence areas. Organically managed (OM) dairy herds have been shown to have lower seroprevalence of both viruses compared to conventionally managed (CM) herds. The objective of this study was to challenge the hypothesis of a lower occurrence of BRSV and BoCV in OM compared to CM dairy herds. In November 2011, May 2012 and May 2013 milk samples from four homebred primiparous cows were collected in 75 to 65 OM and 69 to 62 CM herds. The antibody status regarding BRSV and BoCV was analysed with commercial indirect ELISAs. Herds were classified as positive if at least one individual sample was positive.ResultsThe prevalence of positive herds ranged from 73.4% to 82.3% for BRSV and from 76.8% to 85.3% for BoCV among OM and CM herds, over the three sampling occasions. There was no statistically significant difference between OM and CM herds at any sampling occasion. The incidence risk of newly infected herds did not differ statistically between OM and CM herds at any sampling occasion, neither for BRSV nor for BoCV. The incidence of herds turning sero-negative between samplings corresponded to the incidence of newly infected. Bulk tank milk (BTM) samples were also sampled in the herds and analysed. Several herds were negative on individual samples but positive in BTM. Herd-level data on production, health and reproduction were retrieved from VÄXA Sweden and the study herds were representative of the source population.ConclusionThere was no difference in prevalence of or incidence risk for BRSV or BoCV between Swedish OM and CM herds. Because the incidence of herds becoming seropositive was balanced by herds becoming seronegative it should be possible to lower the prevalence of these two infections among Swedish dairy cattle herds if biosecurity is improved.

Project description:BackgroundA common approach to the application of epidemiological models is to determine a single (point estimate) parameterisation using the information available in the literature. However, in many cases there is considerable uncertainty about parameter values, reflecting both the incomplete nature of current knowledge and natural variation, for example between farms. Furthermore model outcomes may be highly sensitive to different parameter values. Paratuberculosis is an infection for which many of the key parameter values are poorly understood and highly variable, and for such infections there is a need to develop and apply statistical techniques which make maximal use of available data.ResultsA technique based on Latin hypercube sampling combined with a novel reweighting method was developed which enables parameter uncertainty and variability to be incorporated into a model-based framework for estimation of prevalence. The method was evaluated by applying it to a simulation of paratuberculosis in dairy herds which combines a continuous time stochastic algorithm with model features such as within herd variability in disease development and shedding, which have not been previously explored in paratuberculosis models. Generated sample parameter combinations were assigned a weight, determined by quantifying the model's resultant ability to reproduce prevalence data. Once these weights are generated the model can be used to evaluate other scenarios such as control options. To illustrate the utility of this approach these reweighted model outputs were used to compare standard test and cull control strategies both individually and in combination with simple husbandry practices that aim to reduce infection rates.ConclusionsThe technique developed has been shown to be applicable to a complex model incorporating realistic control options. For models where parameters are not well known or subject to significant variability, the reweighting scheme allowed estimated distributions of parameter values to be combined with additional sources of information, such as that available from prevalence distributions, resulting in outputs which implicitly handle variation and uncertainty. This methodology allows for more robust predictions from modelling approaches by allowing for parameter uncertainty and combining different sources of information, and is thus expected to be useful in application to a large number of disease systems.

Dataset Information

Epidemiology of age-dependent prevalence of Bovine Herpes Virus Type 1 (BoHV-1) in dairy herds with and without vaccination

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets