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The Relationship Between Acuity of Organ Failure and Predictive Validity of Sepsis-3 Criteria.

ABSTRACT: The Sepsis-3 taskforce defined sepsis as suspicion of infection and an acute rise in the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score by 2 points over the preinfection baseline. Sepsis-3 studies, though, have not distinguished between acute and chronic organ failure, and may not accurately reflect the epidemiology, natural history, or impact of sepsis. Our objective was to determine the extent to which the predictive validity of Sepsis-3 is attributable to chronic rather than acute organ failure. Design:Retrospective cohort study. Setting:General medicine inpatient service at a tertiary teaching hospital. Patients:A total of 3,755 adult medical acute-care encounters (1,864 confirmed acute infections) over 1 year. Interventions:None. Measurements and Main Results:We measured the total Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score at the onset of infection and separated its components (baseline and acute rise) using case-by-case chart reviews. We compared the predictive validities of acuity-focused (acute rise in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment ? 2) and conventional (total Sequential Organ Failure Assessment ? 2) implementations of Sepsis-3 criteria. Measures of predictive validity were change in the rate of outcomes and change in the area under receiver operating characteristic curves after adding sepsis criteria to multivariate logistic regression models of baseline risk (age, sex, race, and Charlson comorbidity index). Outcomes were inhospital mortality (primary) and ICU transfer or inhospital mortality (secondary). Acuity-focused implementations of Sepsis-3 were associated with neither a change in mortality (2.2% vs 1.2%; p = 0.18) nor a rise in area under receiver operating characteristic curves compared with baseline models (0.67 vs 0.66; p = 0.75). In contrast, conventional implementations were associated with a six-fold change in mortality (2.4% vs 0.4%; p = 0.01) and a rise in area under receiver operating characteristic curves compared with baseline models (0.70 vs 0.66; p = 0.04). Results were similar for the secondary outcome. Conclusions:The evaluation of the validity of organ dysfunction-based clinical sepsis criteria is prone to bias, because acute organ dysfunction consequent to infection is difficult to separate from preexisting organ failure in large retrospective cohorts.

SUBMITTER: Gadrey SM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7523827 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Relationship Between Acuity of Organ Failure and Predictive Validity of Sepsis-3 Criteria.

Gadrey Shrirang M SM Clay Russ R Zimmet Alex N AN Lawson Alexander S AS Oliver Samuel F SF Richardson Emily D ED Forrester Vernon J VJ Andris Robert T RT Rhodes Garret T GT Voss John D JD Moore Christopher C CC Moorman J Randall JR

Critical care explorations 20200925 10

The Sepsis-3 taskforce defined sepsis as suspicion of infection and an acute rise in the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score by 2 points over the preinfection baseline. Sepsis-3 studies, though, have not distinguished between acute and chronic organ failure, and may not accurately reflect the epidemiology, natural history, or impact of sepsis. Our objective was to determine the extent to which the predictive validity of Sepsis-3 is attributable to chronic rather than acute organ failure.<h ...[more]

PMID: 33063019

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:Sepsis-3 defines organ dysfunction as an increase in the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score by greater than or equal to 2 points. However, some Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score components are not routinely recorded in all hospitals' electronic health record systems, limiting its utility for wide-scale sepsis surveillance. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently released the Adult Sepsis Event surveillance definition that includes simplified organ dysfunction criteria optimized for electronic health records (eSOFA). We compared eSOFA versus Sequential Organ Failure Assessment with regard to sepsis prevalence, overlap, and outcomes. DESIGN:Retrospective cohort study. SETTING:One hundred eleven U.S. hospitals in the Cerner HealthFacts dataset. PATIENTS:Adults hospitalized in 2013-2015. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:We identified clinical indicators of presumed infection (blood cultures and antibiotics) concurrent with either: 1) an increase in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score by 2 or more points (Sepsis-3) or 2) 1 or more eSOFA criteria: vasopressor initiation, mechanical ventilation initiation, lactate greater than or equal to 2.0 mmol/L, doubling in creatinine, doubling in bilirubin to greater than or equal to 2.0?mg/dL, or greater than or equal to 50% decrease in platelet count to less than 100 cells/?L (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Adult Sepsis Event). We compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for discriminating in-hospital mortality, adjusting for baseline characteristics. Of 942,360 patients in the cohort, 57,242 (6.1%) had sepsis by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment versus 41,618 (4.4%) by eSOFA. Agreement between sepsis by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and eSOFA was good (Cronbach's alpha 0.81). Baseline characteristics and infectious diagnoses were similar, but mortality was higher with eSOFA (17.1%) versus Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (14.4%; p < 0.001) as was discrimination for mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.774 vs 0.759; p < 0.001). Comparisons were consistent across subgroups of age, infectious diagnoses, and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS:The Adult Sepsis Event's eSOFA organ dysfunction criteria identify a smaller, more severely ill sepsis cohort compared with the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, but with good overlap and similar clinical characteristics. Adult Sepsis Events may facilitate wide-scale automated sepsis surveillance that tracks closely with the more complex Sepsis-3 criteria.

Project description:BackgroundThe simple scoring systems for predicting the outcome of sepsis in intensive care units (ICUs) are few, especially for limited-resource settings. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the quick Sequential (Sepsis-Related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score in predicting the mortality of ICU patients with sepsis in Vietnam.MethodsWe did a multicenter cross-sectional study of patients with sepsis (≥18 years old) presenting to 15 adult ICUs throughout Vietnam on the specified days (i.e., 9th January, 3rd April, 3rd July, and 9th October) representing the different seasons of 2019. The primary and secondary outcomes were the hospital and ICU all-cause mortalities, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated to determine the discriminatory ability of the qSOFA score for deaths in the hospital and ICU. The cut-off value of the qSOFA scores was determined by the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Upon ICU admission, factors associated with the hospital and ICU mortalities were assessed in univariable and multivariable logistic models.ResultsOf 252 patients, 40.1% died in the hospital, and 33.3% died in the ICU. The qSOFA score had a poor discriminatory ability for both the hospital (AUROC: 0.610 [95% CI: 0.538 to 0.681]; cut-off value: ≥2.5; sensitivity: 34.7%; specificity: 84.1%; PAUROC = 0.003) and ICU (AUROC: 0.619 [95% CI: 0.544 to 0.694]; cutoff value: ≥2.5; sensitivity: 36.9%; specificity: 83.3%; PAUROC = 0.002) mortalities. However, multivariable logistic regression analyses show that the qSOFA score of 3 was independently associated with the increased risk of deaths in both the hospital (adjusted odds ratio, AOR: 3.358; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.756 to 6.422) and the ICU (AOR: 3.060; 95% CI: 1.651 to 5.671).ConclusionIn our study, despite having a poor discriminatory value, the qSOFA score seems worthwhile in predicting mortality in ICU patients with sepsis in limited-resource settings.Clinical trial registrationClinical trials registry-India: CTRI/2019/01/016898.

Project description:Rationale: Although proposed as a clinical prompt to sepsis based on predictive validity for mortality, the Quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score is often used as a screening tool, which requires high sensitivity.Objectives: To assess the predictive accuracy of qSOFA for mortality in Brazil, focusing on sensitivity.Methods: We prospectively collected data from two cohorts of emergency department and ward patients. Cohort 1 included patients with suspected infection but without organ dysfunction or sepsis (22 hospitals: 3 public and 19 private). Cohort 2 included patients with sepsis (54 hospitals: 24 public and 28 private). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The predictive accuracy of qSOFA was examined considering only the worst values before the suspicion of infection or sepsis.Measurements and Main Results: Cohort 1 contained 5,460 patients (mortality rate, 14.0%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 13.1-15.0), among whom 78.3% had a qSOFA score less than or equal to 1 (mortality rate, 8.3%; 95% CI, 7.5-9.1). The sensitivity of a qSOFA score greater than or equal to 2 for predicting mortality was 53.9% and the 95% CI was 50.3 to 57.5. The sensitivity was higher for a qSOFA greater than or equal to 1 (84.9%; 95% CI, 82.1-87.3), a qSOFA score greater than or equal to 1 or lactate greater than 2 mmol/L (91.3%; 95% CI, 89.0-93.2), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome plus organ dysfunction (68.7%; 95% CI, 65.2-71.9). Cohort 2 contained 4,711 patients, among whom 62.3% had a qSOFA score less than or equal to 1 (mortality rate, 17.3%; 95% CI, 15.9-18.7), whereas in public hospitals the mortality rate was 39.3% (95% CI, 35.5-43.3).Conclusions: A qSOFA score greater than or equal to 2 has low sensitivity for predicting death in patients with suspected infection in a developing country. Using a qSOFA score greater than or equal to 2 as a screening tool for sepsis may miss patients who ultimately die. Using a qSOFA score greater than or equal to 1 or adding lactate to a qSOFA score greater than or equal to 1 may improve sensitivity.Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03158493).

Project description:ContextSevere sepsis is typically characterized by initial cytokine-mediated hyperinflammation. Whether this hyperinflammatory phase is followed by immunosuppression is controversial. Animal studies suggest that multiple immune defects occur in sepsis, but data from humans remain conflicting.ObjectivesTo determine the association of sepsis with changes in host innate and adaptive immunity and to examine potential mechanisms for putative immunosuppression.Design, setting, and participantsRapid postmortem spleen and lung tissue harvest was performed at the bedsides of 40 patients who died in intensive care units (ICUs) of academic medical centers with active severe sepsis to characterize their immune status at the time of death (2009-2011). Control spleens (n = 29) were obtained from patients who were declared brain-dead or had emergent splenectomy due to trauma; control lungs (n = 20) were obtained from transplant donors or from lung cancer resections.Main outcome measuresCytokine secretion assays and immunophenotyping of cell surface receptor-ligand expression profiles were performed to identify potential mechanisms of immune dysfunction. Immunohistochemical staining was performed to evaluate the loss of immune effector cells.ResultsThe mean ages of patients with sepsis and controls were 71.7 (SD, 15.9) and 52.7 (SD, 15.0) years, respectively. The median number of ICU days for patients with sepsis was 8 (range, 1-195 days), while control patients were in ICUs for 4 or fewer days. The median duration of sepsis was 4 days (range, 1-40 days). Compared with controls, anti-CD3/anti-CD28-stimulated splenocytes from sepsis patients had significant reductions in cytokine secretion at 5 hours: tumor necrosis factor, 5361 (95% CI, 3327-7485) pg/mL vs 418 (95% CI, 98-738) pg/mL; interferon γ, 1374 (95% CI, 550-2197) pg/mL vs 37.5 (95% CI, -5 to 80) pg/mL; interleukin 6, 3691 (95% CI, 2313-5070) vs 365 (95% CI, 87-642) pg/mL; and interleukin 10, 633 (95% CI, -269 to 1534) vs 58 (95% CI, -39 to 156) pg/mL; (P < .001 for all). There were similar reductions in 5-hour lipopolysaccharide-stimulated cytokine secretion. Cytokine secretion in sepsis patients was generally less than 10% that in controls, independent of age, duration of sepsis, corticosteroid use, and nutritional status. Although differences existed between spleen and lung, flow cytometric analysis showed increased expression of selected inhibitory receptors and ligands and expansion of suppressor cell populations in both organs. Unique differences in cellular inhibitory molecule expression existed in immune cells isolated from lungs of sepsis patients vs cancer patients and vs transplant donors. Immunohistochemical staining showed extensive depletion of splenic CD4, CD8, and HLA-DR cells and expression of ligands for inhibitory receptors on lung epithelial cells.ConclusionsPatients who die in the ICU following sepsis compared with patients who die of nonsepsis etiologies have biochemical, flow cytometric, and immunohistochemical findings consistent with immunosuppression. Targeted immune-enhancing therapy may be a valid approach in selected patients with sepsis.

Dataset Information

The Relationship Between Acuity of Organ Failure and Predictive Validity of Sepsis-3 Criteria.

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The Relationship Between Acuity of Organ Failure and Predictive Validity of Sepsis-3 Criteria.

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