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The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

ABSTRACT: A key unknown for SARS-CoV-2 is how asymptomatic infections contribute to transmission. We used a transmission model with asymptomatic and presymptomatic states, calibrated to data on disease onset and test frequency from the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak, to quantify the contribution of asymptomatic infections to transmission. The model estimated that 74% (70-78%, 95% posterior interval) of infections proceeded asymptomatically. Despite intense testing, 53% (51-56%) of infections remained undetected, most of them asymptomatic. Asymptomatic individuals were the source for 69% (20-85%) of all infections. The data did not allow identification of the infectiousness of asymptomatic infections, however low ranges (0-25%) required a net reproduction number for individuals progressing through presymptomatic and symptomatic stages of at least 15. Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections may contribute substantially to transmission. Control measures, and models projecting their potential impact, need to look beyond the symptomatic cases if they are to understand and address ongoing transmission.

SUBMITTER: Emery JC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7527238 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Emery Jon C JC Russell Timothy W TW Liu Yang Y Hellewell Joel J Pearson Carl Ab CA Knight Gwenan M GM Eggo Rosalind M RM Kucharski Adam J AJ Kucharski Adam J AJ Funk Sebastian S Flasche Stefan S Houben Rein Mgj RM

eLife 20200824

A key unknown for SARS-CoV-2 is how asymptomatic infections contribute to transmission. We used a transmission model with asymptomatic and presymptomatic states, calibrated to data on disease onset and test frequency from the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak, to quantify the contribution of asymptomatic infections to transmission. The model estimated that 74% (70-78%, 95% posterior interval) of infections proceeded asymptomatically. Despite intense testing, 53% (51-56%) of infections remain ...[more]

PMID: 32831176

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Project description:BackgroundProlonged periods of confined living on a cruise ship increase the risk for respiratory disease transmission. We describe the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Australian passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and provide recommendations to mitigate future cruise ship outbreaks.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of Australian passengers who travelled on the Diamond Princess from 20 January until 4 February 2020 and were either hospitalised, remained in Japan or repatriated. The main outcome measures included an epidemic curve, demographics, symptoms, clinical and radiological signs, risk factors and length of time to clear infection.ResultsAmong 223 Australian passengers, 56 were confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive. Forty-nine cases had data available and of these over 70% had symptoms consistent with COVID-19. Of symptomatic cases, 17% showed signs and symptoms before the ship implemented quarantine and a further two-thirds had symptoms within one incubation period of quarantine commencing. Prior to ship-based quarantine, exposure to a close contact or cabin mate later confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive was associated with a 3.78 fold (95% CI, 2.24-6.37) higher risk of COVID-19 acquisition compared to non-exposed passengers. Exposure to a positive cabin mate during the ship's quarantine carried a relative risk of 6.18 (95% CI, 1.96-19.46) of developing COVID-19. Persistently asymptomatic cases represented 29% of total cases. The median time to the first of two consecutive negative PCR-based SARS-CoV-2 assays was 13 days for asymptomatic cases and 19 days for symptomatic cases (p = 0.002).ConclusionShip based quarantine was effective at reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 amongst Australian passengers, but the risk of infection was higher if an individual shared a cabin or was a close contact of a confirmed case. Managing COVID-19 in cruise ship passengers is challenging and requires enhanced health measures and access to onshore quarantine and isolation facilities.

Project description:BackgroundThe ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a global threat. Identification of markers for symptom onset and disease progression is a pressing issue. We described the clinical features of people infected on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship who were diagnosed with asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or mild or severe COVID-19, on admission to the Self-Defense Forces Central Hospital (Tokyo, Japan) and at the end of observation.MethodsThis retrospective, single-centre study included participants with laboratory-detected SARS-CoV-2 infection who were admitted to the Self-Defense Forces Central Hospital from Feb 11 to Feb 25, 2020. Clinical records, laboratory data, and radiological findings were analysed. Clinical outcomes were followed up until discharge or Feb 26, 2020, whichever came first. We defined asymptomatic infection as SARS-CoV-2 infection with no history of clinical signs and symptoms, severe COVID-19 as clinical symptoms of pneumonia (dyspnoea, tachypnoea, peripheral capillary oxygen saturation <93%, and need for oxygen therapy), and mild COVID-19 as all other symptoms. Clinical features on admission were compared among patients with different disease severity, including asymptomatic infection, at the end of observation. We used univariable analysis to identify factors associated with symptomatic illness among asymptomatic people infected with SARS-CoV-2 and disease progression in patients with COVID-19.FindingsAmong the 104 participants included in the final analysis, the median age was 68 years (IQR 47-75) and 54 (52%) were male. On admission, 43 (41%) participants were classified as asymptomatic, 41 (39%) as having mild COVID-10, and 20 (19%) as having severe COVID-19. At the end of observation, 33 (32%) participants were confirmed as being asymptomatic, 43 (41%) as having mild COVID-19, and 28 (27%) as having severe COVID-19. Serum lactate hydrogenase concentrations were significantly higher in the ten participants who were asymptomatic on admission but developed symptomatic COVID-19 compared with the 33 participants who remained asymptomatic throughout the observation period (five [50%] vs four [12%] participants; odds ratio 7·25, 95% CI 1·43-36·70; p=0·020). Compared with patients with mild disease at the end of observation, patients with severe COVID-19 were older (median age 73 years [IQR 55-77] vs 60 years [40-71]; p=0·028) and had more frequent consolidation on chest CT (13 [46%] of 28 vs nine [21%] of 43; p=0·035) and lymphopenia (16 [57%] vs ten [23%]; p=0·0055) on admission.InterpretationOlder age, consolidation on chest CT images, and lymphopenia might be risk factors for disease progression of COVID-19 and contribute to improved clinical management.FundingNone.

Project description:Background: Maritime and river travel may be associated with respiratory viral spread via infected passengers and/or crew and potentially through other transmission routes. The transmission models of SARS-CoV-2 associated with cruise ship travel are based on transmission dynamics of other respiratory viruses. We aimed to provide a summary and evaluation of relevant data on SARS-CoV-2 transmission aboard cruise ships, report policy implications, and highlight research gaps. Methods: We searched four electronic databases (up to 26 May 2022) and included studies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission aboard cruise ships. The quality of the studies was assessed based on five criteria, and relevant findings were reported. Results: We included 23 papers on onboard SARS-CoV-2 transmission (with 15 reports on different aspects of the outbreak on Diamond Princess and nine reports on other international cruises), 2 environmental studies, and 1 systematic review. Three articles presented data on both international cruises and the Diamond Princess. The quality of evidence from most studies was low to very low. Index case definitions were heterogeneous. The proportion of traced contacts ranged from 0.19 to 100%. Studies that followed up >80% of passengers and crew reported attack rates (AR) up to 59%. The presence of a distinct dose−response relationship was demonstrated by findings of increased ARs in multi-person cabins. Two studies performed viral cultures with eight positive results. Genomic sequencing and phylogenetic analyses were performed in individuals from three cruises. Two environmental studies reported PCR-positive samples (cycle threshold range 26.21−39.00). In one study, no infectious virus was isolated from any of the 76 environmental samples. Conclusion: Our review suggests that crowding and multiple persons per cabin were associated with an increased risk of transmission on cruise ships. Variations in design, methodology, and case ascertainment limit comparisons across studies and quantification of transmission risk. Standardized guidelines for conducting and reporting studies on cruise ships of acute respiratory infection transmission should be developed.

Dataset Information

The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Publications

The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

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