Dataset Information

The Bayesian Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model for the outbreak of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship.

ABSTRACT: The outbreak of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship provides an unprecedented opportunity to estimate its original transmissibility with basic reproductive number (R₀) and the effectiveness of containment measures. We developed an ordinary differential equation-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery (SEIR) model with Bayesian underpinning to estimate the main parameter of R₀ determined by transmission coefficients, incubation period, and the recovery rate. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation method was used to tackle the parameters of uncertainty resulting from the outbreak of COVID-19 given a small cohort of the cruise ship. The extended stratified SEIR model was also proposed to elucidate the heterogeneity of transmission route by the level of deck with passengers and crews. With the application of the overall model, R₀ was estimated as high as 5.70 (95% credible interval: 4.23-7.79). The entire epidemic period without containment measurements was approximately 47 days and reached the peak one month later after the index case. The partial containment measure reduced 63% (95% credible interval: 60-66%) infected passengers. With the deck-specific SEIR model, the heterogeneity of R₀ estimates by each deck was noted. The estimated R₀ figures were 5.18 for passengers (5-14 deck), mainly from the within-deck transmission, and 2.46 for crews (2-4 deck), mainly from the between-deck transmission. Modelling the dynamic of COVID-19 on the cruise ship not only provides an insight into timely evacuation and early isolation and quarantine but also elucidates the relative contributions of different transmission modes on the cruise ship though the deck-stratified SEIR model.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s00477-020-01968-w).

SUBMITTER: Lai CC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7837082 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

The Bayesian Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model for the outbreak of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship.

Lai Chao-Chih CC Hsu Chen-Yang CY Jen Hsiao-Hsuan HH Yen Amy Ming-Fang AM Chan Chang-Chuan CC Chen Hsiu-Hsi HH

Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal 20210126 7

The outbreak of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship provides an unprecedented opportunity to estimate its original transmissibility with basic reproductive number (R<sub>0</sub>) and the effectiveness of containment measures. We developed an ordinary differential equation-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery (SEIR) model with Bayesian underpinning to estimate the main parameter of R<sub>0</sub> determined by transmission coefficients, incubation period, and the recovery rate. Bay ...[more]

PMID: 33519302

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundProlonged periods of confined living on a cruise ship increase the risk for respiratory disease transmission. We describe the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Australian passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and provide recommendations to mitigate future cruise ship outbreaks.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of Australian passengers who travelled on the Diamond Princess from 20 January until 4 February 2020 and were either hospitalised, remained in Japan or repatriated. The main outcome measures included an epidemic curve, demographics, symptoms, clinical and radiological signs, risk factors and length of time to clear infection.ResultsAmong 223 Australian passengers, 56 were confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive. Forty-nine cases had data available and of these over 70% had symptoms consistent with COVID-19. Of symptomatic cases, 17% showed signs and symptoms before the ship implemented quarantine and a further two-thirds had symptoms within one incubation period of quarantine commencing. Prior to ship-based quarantine, exposure to a close contact or cabin mate later confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive was associated with a 3.78 fold (95% CI, 2.24-6.37) higher risk of COVID-19 acquisition compared to non-exposed passengers. Exposure to a positive cabin mate during the ship's quarantine carried a relative risk of 6.18 (95% CI, 1.96-19.46) of developing COVID-19. Persistently asymptomatic cases represented 29% of total cases. The median time to the first of two consecutive negative PCR-based SARS-CoV-2 assays was 13 days for asymptomatic cases and 19 days for symptomatic cases (p = 0.002).ConclusionShip based quarantine was effective at reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 amongst Australian passengers, but the risk of infection was higher if an individual shared a cabin or was a close contact of a confirmed case. Managing COVID-19 in cruise ship passengers is challenging and requires enhanced health measures and access to onshore quarantine and isolation facilities.

Dataset Information

The Bayesian Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model for the outbreak of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship.

Supplementary information

Publications

The Bayesian Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model for the outbreak of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets