Dataset Information

Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data: Application to epidemiological incidence data.

ABSTRACT: Early warning signals (EWS) identify systems approaching a critical transition, where the system undergoes a sudden change in state. For example, monitoring changes in variance or autocorrelation offers a computationally inexpensive method which can be used in real-time to assess when an infectious disease transitions to elimination. EWS have a promising potential to not only be used to monitor infectious diseases, but also to inform control policies to aid disease elimination. Previously, potential EWS have been identified for prevalence data, however the prevalence of a disease is often not known directly. In this work we identify EWS for incidence data, the standard data type collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or World Health Organization (WHO). We show, through several examples, that EWS calculated on simulated incidence time series data exhibit vastly different behaviours to those previously studied on prevalence data. In particular, the variance displays a decreasing trend on the approach to disease elimination, contrary to that expected from critical slowing down theory; this could lead to unreliable indicators of elimination when calculated on real-world data. We derive analytical predictions which can be generalised for many epidemiological systems, and we support our theory with simulated studies of disease incidence. Additionally, we explore EWS calculated on the rate of incidence over time, a property which can be extracted directly from incidence data. We find that although incidence might not exhibit typical critical slowing down properties before a critical transition, the rate of incidence does, presenting a promising new data type for the application of statistical indicators.

SUBMITTER: Southall E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7531856 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data: Application to epidemiological incidence data.

Southall Emma E Tildesley Michael J MJ Dyson Louise L

PLoS computational biology 20200922 9

Early warning signals (EWS) identify systems approaching a critical transition, where the system undergoes a sudden change in state. For example, monitoring changes in variance or autocorrelation offers a computationally inexpensive method which can be used in real-time to assess when an infectious disease transitions to elimination. EWS have a promising potential to not only be used to monitor infectious diseases, but also to inform control policies to aid disease elimination. Previously, poten ...[more]

PMID: 32960900

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Project description:BackgroundVisualization plays an important role in epidemic time series analysis and forecasting. Viewing time series data plotted on a graph can help researchers identify anomalies and unexpected trends that could be overlooked if the data were reviewed in tabular form; these details can influence a researcher's recommended course of action or choice of simulation models. However, there are challenges in reviewing data sets from multiple data sources - data can be aggregated in different ways (e.g., incidence vs. cumulative), measure different criteria (e.g., infection counts, hospitalizations, and deaths), or represent different geographical scales (e.g., nation, HHS Regions, or states), which can make a direct comparison between time series difficult. In the face of an emerging epidemic, the ability to visualize time series from various sources and organizations and to reconcile these datasets based on different criteria could be key in developing accurate forecasts and identifying effective interventions. Many tools have been developed for visualizing temporal data; however, none yet supports all the functionality needed for easy collaborative visualization and analysis of epidemic data.ResultsIn this paper, we present EpiViewer, a time series exploration dashboard where users can upload epidemiological time series data from a variety of sources and compare, organize, and track how data evolves as an epidemic progresses. EpiViewer provides an easy-to-use web interface for visualizing temporal datasets either as line charts or bar charts. The application provides enhanced features for visual analysis, such as hierarchical categorization, zooming, and filtering, to enable detailed inspection and comparison of multiple time series on a single canvas. Finally, EpiViewer provides several built-in statistical Epi-features to help users interpret the epidemiological curves.ConclusionEpiViewer is a single page web application that provides a framework for exploring, comparing, and organizing temporal datasets. It offers a variety of features for convenient filtering and analysis of epicurves based on meta-attribute tagging. EpiViewer also provides a platform for sharing data between groups for better comparison and analysis. Our user study demonstrated that EpiViewer is easy to use and fills a particular niche in the toolspace for visualization and exploration of epidemiological data.

Project description:Prediction of ecosystem response to global environmental change is a pressing scientific challenge of major societal relevance. Many ecosystems display nonlinear responses to environmental change, and may even undergo practically irreversible 'regime shifts' that initiate ecosystem collapse. Recently, early warning signals based on spatiotemporal metrics have been proposed for the identification of impending regime shifts. The rapidly increasing availability of remotely sensed data provides excellent opportunities to apply such model-based spatial early warning signals in the real world, to assess ecosystem resilience and identify impending regime shifts induced by global change. Such information would allow land-managers and policy makers to interfere and avoid catastrophic shifts, but also to induce regime shifts that move ecosystems to a desired state. Here, we show that the application of spatial early warning signals in real-world landscapes presents unique and unexpected challenges, and may result in misleading conclusions when employed without careful consideration of the spatial data and processes at hand. We identify key practical and theoretical issues and provide guidelines for applying spatial early warning signals in heterogeneous, real-world landscapes based on literature review and examples from real-world data. Major identified issues include (1) spatial heterogeneity in real-world landscapes may enhance reversibility of regime shifts and boost landscape-level resilience to environmental change (2) ecosystem states are often difficult to define, while these definitions have great impact on spatial early warning signals and (3) spatial environmental variability and socio-economic factors may affect spatial patterns, spatial early warning signals and associated regime shift predictions. We propose a novel framework, shifting from an ecosystem perspective towards a landscape approach. The framework can be used to identify conditions under which resilience assessment with spatial remotely sensed data may be successful, to support well-informed application of spatial early warning signals, and to improve predictions of ecosystem responses to global environmental change.

Project description:MotivationHierarchical clustering of microbial genotypes has the limitation that hierarchical clusters are nested, where smaller groups of related isolates exist within larger groups that get progressively larger as relationships become increasingly distant. In an epidemiologic context, investigators must dissect hierarchical trees into discrete groupings that are epidemiologically meaningful. We recently described a statistical framework (Method A) for dissecting hierarchical trees that attempts to minimize investigator bias. Here, we apply a modified version of that framework (Method B) to a hierarchical tree constructed from 2111 genotypes of the foodborne parasite Cyclospora, including 639 genotypes linked to epidemiologically defined outbreaks. To evaluate Method B's performance, we examined the concordance between these epidemiologically defined groupings and the genetic partitions identified. We also used the same epidemiologic clusters to evaluate the performance of Method A, plus two tree-dissection methods (cutreeHybrid and cutreeDynamic) available within the Dynamic Tree Cut R package, in addition to the TreeCluster method and PARNAS.ResultsCompared to the other methods, Method B, TreeCluster, and PARNAS were the most accurate (99.4%) in identifying genetic groups that reflected the epidemiologic groupings, noting that TreeCluster and PARNAS performed identically on our dataset. CutreeHybrid identified groups reflecting patterns in the wider Cyclospora population structure but lacked finer, strain-level discrimination (Simpson's D: cutreeHybrid=0.785). CutreeDynamic displayed good strain discrimination (Simpson's D = 0.933), though lacked sensitivity (77%). At two different threshold/radius settings TreeCluster/PARNAS displayed similar utility to Method B. However, Method B computes a tree-dissection threshold automatically, and the threshold/radius settings used when executing TreeCluster/PARNAS here were computed using Method B. Using a TreeCluster threshold of 0.045 as recommended in the TreeCluster documentation, epidemiologic utility dropped markedly below that of Method B.Availability and implementationRelevant code and data are publicly available. Source code (Method B) and instructions for its use are available here: https://github.com/Joel-Barratt/Hierarchical-tree-dissection-framework.

Dataset Information

Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data: Application to epidemiological incidence data.

Publications

Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data: Application to epidemiological incidence data.

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