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Patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world: exponential versus power laws.

ABSTRACT: We have analysed the COVID-19 epidemic data of more than 174 countries (excluding China) in the period between 22 January and 28 March 2020. We found that some countries (such as the USA, the UK and Canada) follow an exponential epidemic growth, while others (like Italy and several other European countries) show a power law like growth. Regardless of the best fitting law, many countries can be shown to follow a common trajectory that is similar to Italy (the epicentre at the time of analysis), but with varying degrees of delay. We found that countries with 'younger' epidemics, i.e. countries where the epidemic started more recently, tend to exhibit more exponential like behaviour, while countries that were closer behind Italy tend to follow a power law growth. We hypothesize that there is a universal growth pattern of this infection that starts off as exponential and subsequently becomes more power law like. Although it cannot be excluded that this growth pattern is a consequence of social distancing measures, an alternative explanation is that it is an intrinsic epidemic growth law, dictated by a spatially distributed community structure, where the growth in individual highly mixed communities is exponential but the longer term, local geographical spread (in the absence of global mixing) results in a power law. This is supported by computer simulations of a metapopulation model that gives rise to predictions about the growth dynamics that are consistent with correlations found in the epidemiological data. Therefore, seeing a deviation from straight exponential growth may be a natural progression of the epidemic in each country. On the practical side, this indicates that (i) even in the absence of strict social distancing interventions, exponential growth is not an accurate predictor of longer term infection spread, and (ii) a deviation from exponential spread and a reduction of estimated doubling times do not necessarily indicate successful interventions, which are instead indicated by a transition to a reduced power or by a deviation from power law behaviour.

SUBMITTER: Komarova NL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7536045 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world: exponential versus power laws.

Komarova Natalia L NL Schang Luis M LM Wodarz Dominik D

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20200930 170

We have analysed the COVID-19 epidemic data of more than 174 countries (excluding China) in the period between 22 January and 28 March 2020. We found that some countries (such as the USA, the UK and Canada) follow an exponential epidemic growth, while others (like Italy and several other European countries) show a power law like growth. Regardless of the best fitting law, many countries can be shown to follow a common trajectory that is similar to Italy (the epicentre at the time of analysis), b ...[more]

PMID: 32993434

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Project description:BackgroundWe investigated impacts of COVID-19 on cardiac rehabilitation (CR) delivery around the globe, including virtual delivery, as well as effects on providers and patients.MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, a piloted survey was administered to CR programs globally via REDCap from April to June 2020. The 50 members of the International Council of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation (ICCPR) and personal contacts facilitated program identification.ResultsOverall, 1062 (18.3% program response rate) responses were received from 70/111 (63.1% country response rate) countries in the world with existent CR programs. Of these, 367 (49.1%) programs reported they had stopped CR delivery, and 203 (27.1%) stopped temporarily (mean = 8.3 ± 2.8 weeks). Alternative models were delivered in 322 (39.7%) programs, primarily through low-tech modes (n = 226,19.3%). Furthermore, 353 (30.2%) respondents were re-deployed, and 276 (37.3%) felt the need to work due to fear of losing their job, despite the perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 (mean = 30.0% ± 27.4/100). Also, 266 (22.5%) reported anxiety, 241(20.4%) were concerned about exposing their family, 113 (9.7%) reported increased workload to transition to remote delivery, and 105 (9.0%) were juggling caregiving responsibilities during business hours. Patients were often contacting staff regarding grocery shopping for heart-healthy foods (n = 333, 28.4%), how to use technology to interact with the program (n = 329, 27.9%), having to stop their exercise because they have no place to exercise (n = 303, 25.7%), and their risk of death from COVID-19 due to pre-existing cardiovascular disease (n = 249, 21.2%). Respondents perceived staff (n = 488, 41.3%) and patient (n = 453, 38.6%) personal protective equipment, as well as COVID-19 screening (n = 414, 35.2%), and testing (n = 411, 35.0%) as paramount to in-person service resumption.ConclusionGiven the estimated number of CR programs globally, these results suggest approximately 4400 CR programs globally have ceased or temporarily stopped service delivery. Those that remain open are implementing new technologies to ensure their patients receive CR safely, despite the challenges.Highlights- COVID-19 has impacted cardiac rehabilitation (CR) delivery around the globe.- In this cross-sectional study, a survey was completed by 1062 (18.3%) CR programs from 70 (63.1%) countries.- The pandemic has resulted in at least temporary cessation of ~75% of CR programs, with others ceasing initiation of new patients, reducing components delivered, and/or changing of mode delivery with little opportunity for planning and training.- There is also significant psychosocial and economic impact on CR providers.- Alternative CR model (e.g., home-based, virtual) reimbursement advocacy is needed, to ensure safe, accessible secondary prevention delivery.

Project description:BackgroundManual therapy is a cornerstone of chiropractic education, whereby students work towards a level of skill and expertise that is regarded as competent to work within the field of chiropractic. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, chiropractic programs in every region around the world had to make rapid changes to the delivery of manual therapy technique education, however what those changes looked like was unknown.AimsThe aims of this study were to describe the immediate actions made by chiropractic programs to deliver education for manual therapy techniques and to summarise the experience of academics who teach manual therapy techniques during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsA qualitative descriptive approach was used to describe the immediate actions made by chiropractic programs to deliver manual therapy technique education during the COVID-19 pandemic. Chiropractic programs were identified from the webpages of the Councils on Chiropractic Education International and the Council on Chiropractic Education - USA. Between May and June 2020, a convenience sample of academics who lead or teach in manual therapy technique in those programs were invited via email to participate in an online survey with open-ended questions. Responses were entered into the NVivo software program and analysed using a reflexive thematic analysis by a qualitative researcher independent to the data collection.ResultsData from 16 academics in 13 separate chiropractic programs revealed five, interconnected themes: Immediate response; Move to online delivery; Impact on learning and teaching; Additional challenges faced by educators; and Ongoing challenges post lockdown.ConclusionThis study used a qualitative descriptive approach to describe how some chiropractic programs immediately responded to the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in their teaching of manual therapy techniques. Chiropractic programs around the world provided their students with rapid, innovative learning strategies, in an attempt to maintain high standards of chiropractic education; however, challenges included maintaining student engagement in an online teaching environment, psychomotor skills acquisition and staff workload.

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Patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world: exponential versus power laws.

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Patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world: exponential versus power laws.

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