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Adapt or Perish: Evolutionary Rescue in a Gradually Deteriorating Environment.

ABSTRACT: We investigate the evolutionary rescue of a microbial population in a gradually deteriorating environment, through a combination of analytical calculations and stochastic simulations. We consider a population destined for extinction in the absence of mutants, which can survive only if mutants sufficiently adapted to the new environment arise and fix. We show that mutants that appear later during the environment deterioration have a higher probability to fix. The rescue probability of the population increases with a sigmoidal shape when the product of the carrying capacity and of the mutation probability increases. Furthermore, we find that rescue becomes more likely for smaller population sizes and/or mutation probabilities if the environment degradation is slower, which illustrates the key impact of the rapidity of environment degradation on the fate of a population. We also show that our main conclusions are robust across various types of adaptive mutants, including specialist and generalist ones, as well as mutants modeling antimicrobial resistance evolution. We further express the average time of appearance of the mutants that do rescue the population and the average extinction time of those that do not. Our methods can be applied to other situations with continuously variable fitnesses and population sizes, and our analytical predictions are valid in the weak-to-moderate mutation regime.

SUBMITTER: Marrec L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7536851 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Adapt or Perish: Evolutionary Rescue in a Gradually Deteriorating Environment.

Marrec Loïc L Bitbol Anne-Florence AF

Genetics 20200827 2

We investigate the evolutionary rescue of a microbial population in a gradually deteriorating environment, through a combination of analytical calculations and stochastic simulations. We consider a population destined for extinction in the absence of mutants, which can survive only if mutants sufficiently adapted to the new environment arise and fix. We show that mutants that appear later during the environment deterioration have a higher probability to fix. The rescue probability of the populat ...[more]

PMID: 32855198

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Project description:Filing gaps in our understanding of species' abilities to adapt to novel climates is a key challenge for predicting future range shifts and biodiversity loss. Key knowledge gaps are related to the potential for evolutionary rescue in response to climate, especially in long-lived clonally reproducing species. We illustrate a novel approach to assess the potential for evolutionary rescue using a combination of reciprocal transplant experiment in the field to assess performance under a changing climate and independent growth chamber assays to assess growth- and physiology-related plant trait maxima and plasticities of the same clones. We use a clonal grass, Festuca rubra, as a model species. We propagated individual clones and used them in a transplant experiment across broad-scale temperature and precipitation gradients, simulating the projected direction of climate change in the region. Independent information on trait maxima and plasticities of the same clones was obtained by cultivating them in four growth chambers representing climate extremes. Plant survival was affected by interaction between plant traits and climate change, with both trait plasticities and maxima being important for adaptation to novel climates. Key traits include plasticity in extravaginal ramets, aboveground biomass, and osmotic potential. The direction of selection in response to a given climatic change detected in this study mostly contradicted the natural trait clines indicating that short-term selection pressure as identified here does not match long-term selection outcomes. Long-lived clonal species exposed to different climatic changes are subjected to consistent selection pressures on key traits, a necessary condition for adaptation to novel conditions. This points to evolutionary rescue as an important mechanism for dealing with climate change in these species. Our experimental approach may be applied also in other model systems broadening our understanding of evolutionary rescue. Such knowledge cannot be easily deduced from observing the existing field clines.

Project description:Almost all life on earth is facing environmental change, and understanding how populations will respond to these changes is of urgent importance. One factor that is known to affect the speed by which a population can evolve when faced with changes in the environment is strong sexual selection. This increases the adaptive capacity of a population by increasing reproductive skew toward well-adapted (usually) males who will, on average, be best able to compete for matings. This effect could potentially be disrupted when males pursue alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs), whereby males within a species exhibit qualitatively different behaviors in their pursuit of matings. ARTs are diverse, but one common class is those expressed through condition-dependent polyphenism such that high-quality, well-adapted males compete aggressively for mates and low-quality, poorly adapted males attempt to acquire matings via other, nonaggressive behaviors. Here, using an individual-based modeling approach, we consider the possible impacts of ARTs on adaptation and evolutionary rescue. When the ART is simultaneous, meaning that low-quality males not only engage in contests but also pursue other tactics, adaptive capacity is reduced and evolutionary rescue, where a population avoids extinction by adapting to a changing environment, becomes less likely. This is because the use of the ART allows low-quality males to contribute more maladaptive genes to the population than would happen otherwise. When the ART is fixed, however, such that low-quality males will only use the alternative tactic and do not engage in contests, we find the opposite: adaptation happens more quickly and evolutionary rescue when the environment changes is more likely. This surprising effect is caused by an increase in the mating success of the highest quality males who face many fewer competitors in this scenario-counterintuitively, the presence of males pursuing the ART increases reproductive skew toward those males in the best condition.

Dataset Information

Adapt or Perish: Evolutionary Rescue in a Gradually Deteriorating Environment.

Publications

Adapt or Perish: Evolutionary Rescue in a Gradually Deteriorating Environment.

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