A global analysis on the effect of temperature, socio-economic and environmental factors on the spread and mortality rate of the COVID-19 pandemic
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Rahman M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7538192 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Controlling the pandemic spread of newly emerging diseases requires rapid, targeted allocation of limited resources among nations. Critical, early control steps would be greatly enhanced if the key risk factors can be identified that accurately predict early disease spread immediately after emergence.Here, we examine the role of travel, trade, and national healthcare resources in predicting the emergence and initial spread of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza. We find that incorporating national healthcare resource data into our analyses allowed a much greater capacity to predict the international spread of this virus. In countries with lower healthcare resources, the reporting of 2009 A/H1N1 cases was significantly delayed, likely reflecting a lower capacity for testing and reporting, as well as other socio-political issues. We also report substantial international trade in live swine and poultry in the decade preceding the pandemic which may have contributed to the emergence and mixed genotype of this pandemic strain. However, the lack of knowledge of recent evolution of each H1N1 viral gene segment precludes the use of this approach to determine viral origins.We conclude that strategies to prevent pandemic influenza virus emergence and spread in the future should include: 1) enhanced surveillance for strains resulting from reassortment in traded livestock; 2) rapid deployment of control measures in the initial spreading phase to countries where travel data predict the pathogen will reach and to countries where lower healthcare resources will likely cause delays in reporting. Our results highlight the benefits, for all parties, when higher income countries provide additional healthcare resources for lower income countries, particularly those that have high air traffic volumes. In particular, international authorities should prioritize aid to those poorest countries where both the risk of emerging infectious diseases and air traffic volume is highest. This strategy will result in earlier detection of pathogens and a reduction in the impact of future pandemics.
| S-EPMC2939898 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has emerged as a global issue of concern for public health, environment and socio-economic setup. This review addresses several aspects of epidemiology, and pathogenesis, environmental resource quality (air quality, hazardous waste management, and wastewater surveillance issues), and socio-economic issues worldwide. The accelerated research activity in the development of diagnostic kits for SARS-CoV-2 is in progress for the rapid sequencing of various strains of SARS-CoV-2. A notable reduction in air pollutants (NO2 and PM2.5) has been observed worldwide, but high air polluted cities showed intense mortalities in COVID-19 affected areas. The use of health safety equipment halted transportation, and work-from-home policy drastically impacted the quantity of solid and hazardous wastes management services. Wastewater appeared as another mode of enteric transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Thus, wastewater-based surveillance could act as a mode of the data source to track the virus's community spread. The pandemic also had a substantial socio-economic impact (health budget, industrial manufacturing, job loss, and unemployment) and further aggravated the countries' economic burden.
| S-EPMC7687413 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Comparison of whole blood DNA methylation in 45 year-old humans with low and high childhood and adulthood socio-economic position Background: Disadvantaged socio-economic position (SEP) in childhood is associated with increased adult mortality and morbidity. We aimed to establish whether childhood SEP was associated with differential methylation of adult DNA. Methods: Forty adult males from the 1958 British Birth Cohort Study were selected from SEP extremes in both early childhood and mid-adulthood. We performed genome-wide methylation analysis on blood DNA taken at 45y using MeDIP (methylated DNA immunoprecipitation). We mapped in triplicate the methylation state of promoters of ~20,000 genes and 400 microRNAs. Probe methylation scores were averaged across triplicates and differential methylation between groups of individuals was determined. Differentially methylated promoter sites of selected genes were validated using pyrosequencing of bisulfite-converted DNA. Results: 9,112 variably methylated probes (from N=223,359 on the microarray) corresponded to 6,176 gene promoters with at least one variable probe. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering of probes obtained from the 500 most variable promoters revealed a cluster enriched with high SEP individuals confirming that SEP differences contribute to overall epigenetic variation. Methylation levels for 1252 gene promoters were associated with childhood SEP vs 545 promoters for adulthood SEP. Functionally, associations with childhood SEP appear in promoters of genes enriched in key cell signalling pathways. The differentially methylated promoters associated with SEP cluster in megabase-sized regions of the genome. Conclusions: Adult blood DNA methylation profiles show more associations with childhood SEP than adult SEP. Organization of these associations across the genome suggests a well-defined epigenetic pattern linked to early socio-economic environment.
2016-05-25 | GSE31713 | GEO
Project description:A global disaster, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, affects every aspect of our lives and there is a need to investigate these highly complex phenomena if one aims to diminish their impact in the health of the population, as well as their socio-economic stability. In this paper we present an attempt to understand the role of the governmental authorities and the response of the rest of the population facing such emergencies. We present a mathematical model that takes into account the epidemiological features of the pandemic and also the actions of people responding to it, focusing only on three aspects of the system, namely, the fear of catching this serious disease, the impact on the economic activities and the compliance of the people to the mitigating measures adopted by the authorities. We apply the model to the specific case of Spain, since there are accurate data available about these three features. We focused on tourism as an example of the economic activity, since this sector of economy is one of the most likely to be affected by the restrictions imposed by the authorities, and because it represents an important part of Spanish economy. The results of numerical calculations agree with the empirical data in such a way that we can acquire a better insight of the different processes at play in such a complex situation, and also in other different circumstances.
| S-EPMC10774333 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Several factors influence the environmental performance simultaneously but ethnic fractionalization, political freedom, financial development and institutional quality have a substantial impact to explain the environmental performance across economies. This study focuses to explore that how environmental performance is affected by these economic, political and social indicators by using the annual data of 163 developed and developing countries covering the time period of 1996-2016.The data is collected from World Development Indicators, World Governance Indicators, Freedom House and Cline Centre. The stationarity of variables is analyzed through LLC, IPS and ADF Fisher Chi-square test. Before applying panel ARDL approach to find out the long run relationship among variables, order of integration is determined through Pedroni's cointegration test. The findings of study highlight that ethnic diversity; institutional quality and political freedom play a significant role to decrease CO2emissions while energy consumption, GDP growth and financial development are increasing the environmental degradation. Ethnic diversity is a source of creative and innovative approaches about problem solving of environmental degradation. Political freedom allows people to participate in decision making that posits much compliance with environmental agreements. The foreign direct investment is attracted by good quality institutions which cause to advent of more environment friendly technology along with attractions for further innovations that may helpful to reduce CO2 emissions. Contrary, GDP growth, financial development and energy consumption enhance the industrialization and urbanization leading to increase the level of CO2 emissions. It is suggested for policy makers that cohesion among different ethnic groups; improving institutional quality; providing political freedom to people and inclusive financial sector will acknowledge the less pollutant environment.
| S-EPMC7451562 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Currently, ~65% of extant primate species (ca 512 species) distributed in 91 countries in the Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar, South Asia and Southeast Asia are threatened with extinction and 75% have declining populations as a result of deforestation and habitat loss resulting from increasing global market demands, and land conversion for industrial agriculture, cattle production and natural resource extraction. Other pressures that negatively impact primates are unsustainable bushmeat hunting, the illegal trade of primates as pets and as body parts, expanding road networks in previously isolated areas, zoonotic disease transmission and climate change. Here we examine current and future trends in several socio-economic factors directly or indirectly affecting primates to further our understanding of the interdependent relationship between human well-being, sustainable development, and primate population persistence. We found that between 2001 and 2018 ca 191 Mha of tropical forest (30% canopy cover) were lost as a result of human activities in the five primate range regions. Forty-six percent of this loss was in the Neotropics (Mexico, Central and South America), 30% in Southeast Asia, 21% in mainland Africa, 2% in Madagascar and 1% in South Asia. Countries with the greatest losses (ca 57% of total tree cover loss) were Brazil, Indonesia, DRC, China, and Malaysia. Together these countries harbor almost 50% of all extant primate species. In 2018, the world human population was estimated at ca 8bn people, ca 60% of which were found in primate range countries. Projections to 2050 and to 2100 indicate continued rapid growth of the human populations in these five primate range regions, with Africa surpassing all the other regions and totaling ca 4bn people by the year 2100. Socioeconomic indicators show that, compared to developed nations, most primate range countries are characterized by high levels of poverty and income inequality, low human development, low food security, high levels of corruption and weak governance. Models of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) projected to 2050 and 2100 showed that whereas practices of increasing inequality (SSP4) or unconstrained growth in economic output and energy use (SSP5) are projected to have dire consequences for human well-being and primate survivorship, practices of sustainability-focused growth and equality (SSP1) are expected to have a positive effect on maintaining biodiversity, protecting environments, and improving the human condition. These results stress that improving the well-being, health, and security of the current and future human populations in primate range countries are of paramount importance if we are to move forward with effective policies to protect the world's primate species and promote biodiversity conservation.
| S-EPMC7444509 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recreational fishing and other outdoor recreational activities have been proven to have positive effects on mental health, including neutralizing pandemic stress. This study aims to identify the perceptions and behavior of recreational anglers during the COVID-19 pandemic along with identifying the factors that determine attitudes. This study is essential for understanding the complex economic, social, and environmental implications associated with a pandemic. Perceptions of pandemic stress reduction were confirmed by 63.8% of anglers, and nearly 98% felt there was no risk of infection from fishing. These feelings were most strongly positively associated and explained by a preference for fishing with friends and family and the frequency of fishing. Over 26% of respondents fished more frequently during the pandemic. Additional free time and the need to escape the pandemic media hype were the main factors for the increase in angler activity. The balance of benefits from changes in angler pandemic behavior was ambiguous. This was determined by considering the potential increase in pressure on the environmental resources that anglers use. Given the positive effects of angling on stress reduction, it is not advisable for policymakers to restrict recreational fishing access. Instead, best management practices should reduce sanitary bottlenecks to increase safety on fishing grounds.
| S-EPMC8998353 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Socio-economic changes in Africa have increased pressure on the continent's ecosystems. Most research investigating environmental change has focused on the changing status of specific species or communities and protected areas, but has largely neglected the broad-scale socio-economic conditions underlying environmental degradation. We tested national-scale hypotheses regarding the socio-economic predictors of ecosystem change and degradation across Africa, hypothesizing that human density and economic development increase the likelihood of cumulative environmental damage. Our combined environmental performance rank includes national ecological footprint, proportional species threat, recent deforestation, freshwater removal, livestock density, cropland coverage, and per capita emissions. Countries like Central African Republic, Botswana, Namibia, and Congo have the best relative environmental performance overall. Structural equation models indicate that increasing population density and overall economic activity (per capita gross domestic product corrected for purchasing-power parity) are the most strongly correlated with greater environmental degradation, while greater wealth inequality (Gini index) correlates with better environmental performance. This represents the first Africa-scale assessment of the socio-economic correlates of environmental degradation, and suggests that dedicated family planning to reduce population growth, and economic development that limits agricultural expansion (cf. intensification) are needed to support environmental sustainability.
| S-EPMC6594960 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a fourfold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases.
| S-EPMC6794280 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDengue is a major mosquito-borne viral disease and an important public health problem. Identifying which factors are important determinants in the risk of dengue infection is critical in supporting and guiding preventive measures. In South-East Asia, half of all reported fatal infections are recorded in Indonesia, yet little is known about the epidemiology of dengue in this country.Methodology/principal findingsHospital-reported dengue cases in Banyumas regency, Central Java were examined to build Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal models assessing the influence of climatic, demographic and socio-economic factors on the risk of dengue infection. A socio-economic factor linking employment type and economic status was the most influential on the risk of dengue infection in the Regency. Other factors such as access to healthcare facilities and night-time temperature were also found to be associated with higher risk of reported dengue infection but had limited explanatory power.Conclusions/significanceOur data suggest that dengue infections are triggered by indoor transmission events linked to socio-economic factors (employment type, economic status). Preventive measures in this area should therefore target also specific environments such as schools and work areas to attempt and reduce dengue burden in this community. Although our analysis did not account for factors such as variations in immunity which need further investigation, this study can advise preventive measures in areas with similar patterns of reported dengue cases and environment.
| S-EPMC5014450 | biostudies-literature