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Do infants and preschoolers quantify probabilities based on proportions?

ABSTRACT: Most statistical problems encountered throughout life require the ability to quantify probabilities based on proportions. Recent findings on the early ontogeny of this ability have been mixed: For example, when presented with jars containing preferred and less preferred items, 12-month-olds, but not 3- and 4-years-olds, seem to rely on the proportions of objects in the jars to predict the content of samples randomly drawn out of them. Given these contrasting findings, it remains unclear what the probabilistic reasoning abilities of young children are and how they develop. In our study, we addressed this question and tested, with identical methods across age groups and similar methods to previous studies, whether 12-month-olds and 3- and 4-years-olds rely on proportions of objects to estimate probabilities of random sampling events. Results revealed that neither infants nor preschoolers do. While preschoolers' performance is in line with previous findings, infants' performance is difficult to interpret given their failure in a control condition in which the outcomes happened with certainty rather than a graded probability. More systematic studies are needed to explain why infants succeeded in a previous study but failed in our study.

SUBMITTER: Placi S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7540750 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Do infants and preschoolers quantify probabilities based on proportions?

Placì Sarah S Fischer Julia J Rakoczy Hannes H

Royal Society open science 20200909 9

Most statistical problems encountered throughout life require the ability to quantify probabilities based on proportions. Recent findings on the early ontogeny of this ability have been mixed: For example, when presented with jars containing preferred and less preferred items, 12-month-olds, but not 3- and 4-years-olds, seem to rely on the proportions of objects in the jars to predict the content of samples randomly drawn out of them. Given these contrasting findings, it remains unclear what the ...[more]

PMID: 33047006

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Project description:BackgroundInfant mental health has emerged as a unique area of practice and research distinguished from child and youth sub-specialties by its advocacy for a relational practice framework with an emphasis on parents/caregivers being integral to assessment, treatment, and prevention initiatives. A diverse array of initiatives offered across a broad spectrum of delivery methods is available to clinicians. However, to date, a large-scale mapping of the research evidence regarding these interventions has yet to be completed to help inform clinician's decisions regarding the best approaches for their clients. To address this knowledge gap, this study aimed to report on the landscape of research pertaining to mental health interventions for infants and preschoolers (0-5 years), and their families at risk for socio-emotional difficulties and negative developmental outcomes.MethodA scoping review methodology was used to conduct a large-scale mapping of the intervention research pertaining to infants and preschoolers (0-5) at risk for socio-emotional difficulties. We searched MEDLINE, PsycINFO, EMBASE, Web of Science, The Cochrane Library, CINAHL, LILACS, ProQuest Nursing & Allied Health Source, World Cat, and ClinicalTrials.gov , from inception to December 31, 2012. We extracted information regarding publication date, geographical location, study design, level of risk, population, key intervention mechanism, and outcome measures.ResultsWe identified 533 potential studies from 1233 title and abstracts after the first round of screening. Full text article review in the second round of screening resulted in a total of 162 included articles for the final analysis. Results indicated that over 50% of interventions evaluated were randomized controlled trials conducted in Westernized countries. Most studies could be subdivided by level of risk within a preventative public health framework including universal, selected, indicated, and direct treatment for children formally diagnosed with a mental disorder. Risk factors experienced by children and their families were heterogeneously defined and numerous outcome measures across included studies. The results of this study are limited to the last search date of 2012.ConclusionsKey intervention mechanisms spanned a range of approaches including parenting groups, dyadic, in-home, cognitive-behavioral therapy, and day care-based interventions. The findings are discussed in terms of implications for broad trends and gaps in research and policy for this population.

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Do infants and preschoolers quantify probabilities based on proportions?

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Do infants and preschoolers quantify probabilities based on proportions?

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