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Significantly Lower Case-fatality Ratio of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) than Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong—A Territory-Wide Cohort Study

ABSTRACT: Abstract Background The case-fatality ratios (CFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) appeared to differ substantially. We aimed to compare the CFR and its predictors of COVID-19 and SARS patients using a territory-wide cohort in Hong Kong. Methods This was a territory-wide retrospective cohort study using data captured from all public hospitals in Hong Kong. Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and SARS patients were identified. The primary endpoint was a composite endpoint of intensive care unit admission, use of mechanical ventilation, and/or death. Results We identified 1013 COVID-19 patients (mean age, 38.4 years; 53.9% male) diagnosed from 23 January to 14 April 2020 and 1670 SARS patients (mean age, 44.4 years; 44.0% male) from March to June 2003. Fifty-five (5.4%) COVID-19 patients and 432 (25.9%) SARS patients had reached the primary endpoint in 30 days. By 30 June 2003, 286 SARS patients had died (CFR, 17.1%). By 7 June 2020, 4 COVID-19 patients had died (CFR, 0.4%). After adjusting for demographic and clinical parameters, COVID-19 was associated with a 71% lower risk of primary endpoint compared with SARS (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% confidence interval, .21–.40; P?

SUBMITTER: Lui G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7543259 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:We have recently described the discovery of a novel coronavirus, coronavirus HKU1 (CoV-HKU1), associated with community-acquired pneumonia. However, the clinical spectrum of disease and the epidemiology of CoV-HKU1 infections in relation to infections with other respiratory viruses are unknown. In this 12-month prospective study, 4,181 nasopharyngeal aspirates from patients with acute respiratory tract infections were subjected to reverse transcription-PCRs specific for CoV-HKU1 and human coronaviruses NL63 (HCoV-NL63), OC43 (HCoV-OC43), and 229E (HCoV-229E). Coronaviruses were detected in 87 (2.1%) patients, with 13 (0.3%) positive for CoV-HKU1, 17 (0.4%) positive for HCoV-NL63, 53 (1.3%) positive for HCoV-OC43, and 4 (0.1%) positive for HCoV-229E. Of the 13 patients with CoV-HKU1 infections, 11 were children and 8 had underlying diseases. Similar to the case for other coronaviruses, upper respiratory infection was the most common presentation of CoV-HKU1 infections, although pneumonia, acute bronchiolitis, and asthmatic exacerbation also occurred. Despite a shorter duration of fever (mean, 1.7 days) and no difference in maximum temperature in children with CoV-HKU1 infections compared to patients with most other respiratory virus infections, a high incidence of febrile seizures (50%) was noted, which was significantly higher than those for HCoV-OC43 (14%), adenovirus (9%), human parainfluenza virus 1 (0%), and respiratory syncytial virus (8%) infections. CoV-HKU1 and HCoV-OC43 infections peaked in winter, although cases of the former also occurred in spring to early summer. This is in contrast to HCoV-NL63 infections, which mainly occurred in early summer and autumn but were absent in winter. Two genotypes of CoV-HKU1 cocirculated during the study period. Continuous studies over a longer period are warranted to ascertain the seasonal variation and relative importance of the different coronaviruses. Similar studies in other countries are required to better determine the epidemiology and genetic diversity of CoV-HKU1.

Project description:BackgroundA range of public health measures have been implemented to suppress local transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hong Kong. We examined the effect of these interventions and behavioural changes of the public on the incidence of COVID-19, as well as on influenza virus infections, which might share some aspects of transmission dynamics with COVID-19.MethodsWe analysed data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, influenza surveillance data in outpatients of all ages, and influenza hospitalisations in children. We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 and influenza A H1N1 to estimate changes in transmissibility over time. Attitudes towards COVID-19 and changes in population behaviours were reviewed through three telephone surveys done on Jan 20-23, Feb 11-14, and March 10-13, 2020.FindingsCOVID-19 transmissibility measured by Rt has remained at approximately 1 for 8 weeks in Hong Kong. Influenza transmission declined substantially after the implementation of social distancing measures and changes in population behaviours in late January, with a 44% (95% CI 34-53%) reduction in transmissibility in the community, from an estimated Rt of 1·28 (95% CI 1·26-1·30) before the start of the school closures to 0·72 (0·70-0·74) during the closure weeks. Similarly, a 33% (24-43%) reduction in transmissibility was seen based on paediatric hospitalisation rates, from an Rt of 1·10 (1·06-1·12) before the start of the school closures to 0·73 (0·68-0·77) after school closures. Among respondents to the surveys, 74·5%, 97·5%, and 98·8% reported wearing masks when going out, and 61·3%, 90·2%, and 85·1% reported avoiding crowded places in surveys 1 (n=1008), 2 (n=1000), and 3 (n=1005), respectively.InterpretationOur study shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions (including border restrictions, quarantine and isolation, distancing, and changes in population behaviour) were associated with reduced transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, and are also likely to have substantially reduced influenza transmission in early February, 2020.FundingHealth and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.

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Significantly Lower Case-fatality Ratio of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) than Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong—A Territory-Wide Cohort Study

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