Dataset Information

Independent Validation of a Tissue Systems Pathology Assay to Predict Future Progression in Nondysplastic Barrett's Esophagus: A Spatial-Temporal Analysis.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:An automated risk prediction assay has previously been shown to objectively identify patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus (NDBE) who are at increased risk of malignant progression. To evaluate the predictive performance of the assay in 76 patients with NDBE of which 38 progressed to high-grade dysplasia/esophageal adenocarcinoma (progressors) and 38 did not (nonprogressors) and to determine whether assessment of additional (spatial) levels per endoscopy and/or multiple (temporal) time points improves assay performance. METHODS:In a blinded, nested case-control cohort, progressors and nonprogressors were matched (age, sex, and Barrett's esophagus length). All random biopsy levels from the baseline endoscopy (spatial samples) and all available previous endoscopies back to 10 years before progression (temporal samples) were assayed. Because the 1:1 ratio of progressors to nonprogressors does not reflect the real-world Barrett's population, negative and positive predictive values were adjusted for prevalence. RESULTS:Seventy-six patients (58 men), mean age of 63 ± 9 years, were studied. A high-risk score was associated with a prevalence-adjusted annual progression rate of 6.9%. The assay identified 31% of progressors when assessing a single biopsy level from the baseline endoscopy. Sensitivity increased to 50% and 69% in spatial and temporal analyses, respectively, while specificity remained at 95%. DISCUSSION:The assay identified a significant subset of NDBE patients who progress at a rate comparable with published estimates for expert-confirmed low-grade dysplasia. Assessing additional spatial and temporal biopsies increased the predictive accuracy, allowing for identification of most future progressors. Additional studies will evaluate the predictive performance of the assay in low-prevalence settings.

SUBMITTER: Frei NF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7544172 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Independent Validation of a Tissue Systems Pathology Assay to Predict Future Progression in Nondysplastic Barrett's Esophagus: A Spatial-Temporal Analysis.

Frei Nicola F NF Konte Kadère K Bossart Emily A EA Stebbins Katelyn K Zhang Yi Y Pouw Roos E RE Critchley-Thorne Rebecca J RJ Bergman Jacques J G H M JJGHM

Clinical and translational gastroenterology 20201001 10

<h4>Introduction</h4>An automated risk prediction assay has previously been shown to objectively identify patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus (NDBE) who are at increased risk of malignant progression. To evaluate the predictive performance of the assay in 76 patients with NDBE of which 38 progressed to high-grade dysplasia/esophageal adenocarcinoma (progressors) and 38 did not (nonprogressors) and to determine whether assessment of additional (spatial) levels per endoscopy and/or mul ...[more]

PMID: 33108124

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Project description:Background & aimsBarrett's esophagus (BE) is a precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Guidelines recommend that patients with nondysplastic BE (NDBE) undergo surveillance endoscopy every 3-5 years. We aimed to identify factors associated with surveillance endoscopy of patients with NDBE and identify trends in appropriate surveillance endoscopy of NDBE at a large tertiary care center.MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of data from a Barrett's Esophagus Registry, identifying patients with NDBE who underwent endoscopy in 2002 or later. We identified patients with NDBE and collected data on length of BE segment, esophageal lesions, demographic features, medications, histology findings, comorbidities, development of EAC, and dates of follow-up endoscopies. We defined appropriate surveillance as 3-5 years between 2nd and 3rd endoscopies, over-utilizers as patients who had less than 3 years between their 2nd and 3rd endoscopies, under-utilizers as patients who had more than 5 years between their 2nd and 3rd endoscopies; and never-surveilled as patients who never received a 2nd endoscopy. The primary outcomes were effects of patient factors, year, and referring providers on appropriateness of surveillance intervals.ResultsWe identified 477 patients with NDBE. Only 15.9% had appropriate surveillance; 37.9% were over-utilizers 15.7% were under-utilizers and 30.4% were never surveilled. Patients were less likely to be over-surveilled if their primary care physician referred them for their 3rd endoscopy instead of a gastroenterologist (adjusted odds ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27-0.95). Male patients or those with an increased number of comorbidities were more likely to be under-surveilled or never-surveilled, whereas patients with long BE segment were more likely to be over-surveilled.ConclusionsIn a retrospective analysis of data from a registry of patients with BE, we found that less than 16% receive appropriate surveillance for NDBE. A primary care provider in the same health system as the endoscopy clinic reduced risk of over-surveillance. This could reflect better coordination of care between specialists and primary care providers.

Dataset Information

Independent Validation of a Tissue Systems Pathology Assay to Predict Future Progression in Nondysplastic Barrett's Esophagus: A Spatial-Temporal Analysis.

Publications

Independent Validation of a Tissue Systems Pathology Assay to Predict Future Progression in Nondysplastic Barrett's Esophagus: A Spatial-Temporal Analysis.

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