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Unpacking the Allee effect: determining individual-level mechanisms that drive global population dynamics.

ABSTRACT: We present a solid theoretical foundation for interpreting the origin of Allee effects by providing the missing link in understanding how local individual-based mechanisms translate to global population dynamics. Allee effects were originally proposed to describe population dynamics that cannot be explained by exponential and logistic growth models. However, standard methods often calibrate Allee effect models to match observed global population dynamics without providing any mechanistic insight. By introducing a stochastic individual-based model, with proliferation, death and motility rates that depend on local density, we present a modelling framework that translates particular global Allee effects to specific individual-based mechanisms. Using data from ecology and cell biology, we unpack individual-level mechanisms implicit in an Allee effect model and provide simulation tools for others to repeat this analysis.

SUBMITTER: Fadai NT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7544333 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Unpacking the Allee effect: determining individual-level mechanisms that drive global population dynamics.

Fadai Nabil T NT Johnston Stuart T ST Simpson Matthew J MJ

Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences 20200916 2241

We present a solid theoretical foundation for interpreting the origin of Allee effects by providing the missing link in understanding how local individual-based mechanisms translate to global population dynamics. Allee effects were originally proposed to describe population dynamics that cannot be explained by exponential and logistic growth models. However, standard methods often calibrate Allee effect models to match observed global population dynamics without providing any mechanistic insight ...[more]

PMID: 33071585

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Project description:UnlabelledLongitudinal sampling for intestinal microbiota in wild animals is difficult, leading to a lack of information on bacterial dynamics occurring in nature. We studied how the composition of microbiota communities changed temporally in free-ranging small primates, rufous mouse lemurs (Microcebus rufus). We marked and recaptured mouse lemurs during their mating season in Ranomafana National Park in southeastern mountainous rainforests of Madagascar for 2 years and determined the fecal microbiota compositions of these mouse lemurs with MiSeq sequencing. We collected 160 fecal samples from 71 animals and had two or more samples from 39 individuals. We found small, but statistically significant, effects of site and age on microbiota richness and diversity and effects of sex, year, and site on microbiota composition, while the within-year temporal trends were less clear. Within-host microbiota showed pervasive variation in intestinal bacterial community composition, especially during the second study year. We hypothesize that the biological properties of mouse lemurs, including their small body size and fast metabolism, may contribute to the temporal intraindividual-level variation, something that should be testable with more-extensive sampling regimes.ImportanceWhile microbiome research has blossomed in recent years, there is a lack of longitudinal studies on microbiome dynamics on free-ranging hosts. To fill this gap, we followed mouse lemurs, which are small heterothermic primates, for 2 years. Most studied animals have shown microbiota to be stable over the life span of host individuals, but some previous research also found ample within-host variation in microbiota composition. Our study used a larger sample size than previous studies and a study setting well suited to track within-host variation in free-ranging mammals. Despite the overall microbiota stability at the population level, the microbiota of individual mouse lemurs can show large-scale changes in composition in time periods as short as 2 days, suggesting caution in inferring individual-level patterns from population-level data.

Project description:Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity--demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes--affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity--positive and negative environmental fluctuations--caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are applicable to metapopulation or time series data and are relevant for predicting extinction in conservation applications or the management of invasive species.

Dataset Information

Unpacking the Allee effect: determining individual-level mechanisms that drive global population dynamics.

Publications

Unpacking the Allee effect: determining individual-level mechanisms that drive global population dynamics.

Similar Datasets

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