Dataset Information

Implication of Trends in Timing of Dialysis Initiation for Incidence of End-stage Kidney Disease.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

In the last 2 decades, there have been notable changes in the level of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at which patients initiate long-term dialysis in the US and around the world. How changes over time in the likelihood of dialysis initiation at any given eGFR level in at-risk patients are associated with the population burden of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) has not been not well defined.

Objective

To examine temporal trends in long-term dialysis initiation by level of eGFR and to quantify how these patterns are associated with the number of patients with ESKD.

Design, setting, and participants

Retrospective cohort study analyzing data obtained from a large, integrated health care delivery system in Northern California from 2001 to 2018 in successive 3-year intervals. Included individuals, ranging in number from as few as 983 122 (2001-2003) to as many as 1 844 317 (2016-2018), were adult members with 1 or more outpatient serum creatinine levels determined in the prior year.

Main outcomes and measures

One-year risk of initiating long-term dialysis stratified by eGFR levels. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess temporal trends in each 3-year cohort with adjustment for age, sex, race, and diabetes status. The potential change in dialysis initiation in the final cohort (2016-2018) was estimated using the relative difference between the standardized risks in the initial cohort (2001-2003) and the final cohort.

Results

In the initial 3-year cohort, the mean (SD) age was 55.4 (16.3) years, 55.0% were women, and the prevalence of diabetes was 14.9%. These characteristics, as well as the distribution of index eGFR, were stable across the study period. The likelihood of receiving dialysis at eGFR levels of 10 to 24 mL/min/1.73 m2 generally increased over time. For example, the 1-year odds of initiating dialysis increased for every 3-year interval by 5.2% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.052; 95% CI, 1.004-1.102) among adults with an index eGFR of 20 to 24 mL/min/1.73 m2, by 6.6% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.066; 95% CI, 1.007-1.130) among adults with an eGFR of 16 to 17 mL/min/1.73 m2, and by 5.3% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.053; 95% CI, 1.008-1.100) among adults with an eGFR of 10 to 13 mL/min/1.73 m2, adjusting for age, sex, race, and diabetes. The incidence of new cases of ESKD was estimated to have potentially been 16% (95% CI, 13%-18%) lower if there were no changes in system-level practice patterns or other factors besides timing of initiating long-term dialysis from the initial 3-year interval (2001-2003) to the final interval (2016-2018) assessed in this study.

Conclusions and relevance

The present results underscore the importance the timing of initiating long-term dialysis has on the size of the population of individuals with ESKD.

SUBMITTER: Hsu CY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7551228 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe exact optimal timing of dialysis for ESKD patients remains unknown. This study systematically reviewed the available evidence with regard to the optimal initiation of maintenance dialysis in ESKD patients.MethodsAn electronic search was performed in Embase, PubMed and the Cochrane Library in order to find studies investigating associations between variables reference to "start of dialysis" and outcomes. Quality assessment and bias assessment were performed by the Newcastle-Ottawa scale and the ROBINSI tool. Due to the heterogeneity of studies, a meta-analysis could not be performed.ResultsThirteen studies were included; four studies included only haemodialysis patients, three peritoneal dialysis, six both; study outcomes included mortality, cardiovascular events, technique failure, quality of life and others. Nine studies mainly focused on the optimal GFR of maintenance dialysis initiation; five studies showed none association between GFR and mortality or other adverse outcomes, two studies showed dialysis initiation at higher GFR levels were with poor prognosis, and 2 studies showed higher GFR levels with better prognosis. Three studies paid attention to comprehensive assessment of uremic signs and/or symptoms for optimal dialysis initiation; uremic burden based on 7 uremic indicators (hemoglobin, serum albumin, blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, potassium, phosphorus, and bicarbonate) were not associated with mortality; another equation (combination of sex, age, serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, serum albumin, haemoglobin, serum phosphorus, diabetes mellitus, and heart failure) based on fuzzy mathematics to assess the timing of haemodialysis initiation was accuracy to prognose 3-year survival; the third study found that volume overload or hypertension was associated with the highest risk for subsequent mortality. Two studies compared urgent or optimal start in dialysis, a study reported increased survival in optimal start patients, another reported no differences between Urgent-Start-PD and Early-Start-PD regarding 6-month outcomes.LimitationsHeterogeneity among the studies was quite high, with differences in sample size, variable and group characteristics; no RCT studies were included, which weakened the strength of evidences.ConclusionsThe criteria for dialysis initiation were varied. Most studies proved that GFR at dialysis initiation was not associated with mortality, timing of dialysis initiation should not be based on GFR, assessments of volume load and patient's tolerance to volume overload are prospective approaches.