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Explaining trends and variation in timing of dialysis initiation in the United States.

ABSTRACT: The United States Renal Data System (USRDS) registry of end-stage renal disease has often been used to study the timing of dialysis initiation, measured by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at dialysis initiation. We conducted an observational study and examined how well variables in the USRDS database explain the trends and variation in eGFR at dialysis initiation.We identified 971,481 patients who initiated dialysis between 1995 and 2012 in the USRDS registry.The mean eGFR at dialysis initiation monotonically rose from 7.7 in 1995 to 11.1 in 2009, and then leveled off to 10.9?mL/min/1.73?m in 2012. The trend of rising, then leveling off was similar across all subgroups studied. Substantial variation in eGFR at dialysis initiation was observed, with standard deviation of 4.38 (95% CI: 2.0-18.4). A total of 11.4% of the total variation occurred across physicians and 88.6% within physicians. Adjustment for measured factors only modestly decreased the total variation. Of the total variance, 10.7% was explained by measured patient-level variables and 1.2% by measured physician and other factors, while 9.2% of physician-level variation and 78.9% of patient-level variation remained unexplained. The extent of variation explained by measured variables was similar over the entire study period.The finding that the majority of variation in eGFR at dialysis initiation is unexplained by measured variables casts doubt on how well eGFR serves as a measure for "timing" of dialysis initiation, and it indicates the need to collect more focused data to gain understanding of factors that affect timing of dialysis initiation in the US.

SUBMITTER: Li Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5440142 | biostudies-other | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Explaining trends and variation in timing of dialysis initiation in the United States.

Li Yun Y Jin Yan Y Kapke Alissa A Pearson Jeffrey J Saran Rajiv R Port Friedrich K FK Robinson Bruce M BM

Medicine 20170501 20

The United States Renal Data System (USRDS) registry of end-stage renal disease has often been used to study the timing of dialysis initiation, measured by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at dialysis initiation. We conducted an observational study and examined how well variables in the USRDS database explain the trends and variation in eGFR at dialysis initiation.We identified 971,481 patients who initiated dialysis between 1995 and 2012 in the USRDS registry.The mean eGFR at dialysi ...[more]

PMID: 28514305

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Project description:ImportanceIn the last 2 decades, there have been notable changes in the level of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at which patients initiate long-term dialysis in the US and around the world. How changes over time in the likelihood of dialysis initiation at any given eGFR level in at-risk patients are associated with the population burden of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) has not been not well defined.ObjectiveTo examine temporal trends in long-term dialysis initiation by level of eGFR and to quantify how these patterns are associated with the number of patients with ESKD.Design, setting, and participantsRetrospective cohort study analyzing data obtained from a large, integrated health care delivery system in Northern California from 2001 to 2018 in successive 3-year intervals. Included individuals, ranging in number from as few as 983 122 (2001-2003) to as many as 1 844 317 (2016-2018), were adult members with 1 or more outpatient serum creatinine levels determined in the prior year.Main outcomes and measuresOne-year risk of initiating long-term dialysis stratified by eGFR levels. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess temporal trends in each 3-year cohort with adjustment for age, sex, race, and diabetes status. The potential change in dialysis initiation in the final cohort (2016-2018) was estimated using the relative difference between the standardized risks in the initial cohort (2001-2003) and the final cohort.ResultsIn the initial 3-year cohort, the mean (SD) age was 55.4 (16.3) years, 55.0% were women, and the prevalence of diabetes was 14.9%. These characteristics, as well as the distribution of index eGFR, were stable across the study period. The likelihood of receiving dialysis at eGFR levels of 10 to 24 mL/min/1.73 m2 generally increased over time. For example, the 1-year odds of initiating dialysis increased for every 3-year interval by 5.2% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.052; 95% CI, 1.004-1.102) among adults with an index eGFR of 20 to 24 mL/min/1.73 m2, by 6.6% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.066; 95% CI, 1.007-1.130) among adults with an eGFR of 16 to 17 mL/min/1.73 m2, and by 5.3% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.053; 95% CI, 1.008-1.100) among adults with an eGFR of 10 to 13 mL/min/1.73 m2, adjusting for age, sex, race, and diabetes. The incidence of new cases of ESKD was estimated to have potentially been 16% (95% CI, 13%-18%) lower if there were no changes in system-level practice patterns or other factors besides timing of initiating long-term dialysis from the initial 3-year interval (2001-2003) to the final interval (2016-2018) assessed in this study.Conclusions and relevanceThe present results underscore the importance the timing of initiating long-term dialysis has on the size of the population of individuals with ESKD.

Project description:BackgroundPhysicians' perceptions and opinions may influence when to initiate dialysis.ObjectiveTo examine providers' perspectives and opinions regarding the timing of dialysis initiation.DesignOnline survey.SettingCommunity and academic dialysis practices in Canada.ParticipantsA nationally-representative sample of dialysis providers.Measurements and methodsDialysis providers opinions assessing reasons to initiate dialysis at low or high eGFR. Responses were obtained using a 9-point Likert scale. Early dialysis was defined as initiation of dialysis in an individual with an eGFR greater than or equal to 10.5 ml/min/m(2). A detailed survey was emailed to all members of the Canadian Society of Nephrology (CSN) in February 2013. The survey was designed and pre-tested to evaluate duration and ease of administration.ResultsOne hundred and forty one (25% response rate) physicians participated in the survey. The majority were from urban, academic centres and practiced in regionally administered renal programs. Very few respondents had a formal policy regarding the timing of dialysis initiation or formally reviewed new dialysis starts (N = 4, 3.1%). The majority of respondents were either neutral or disagreed that late compared to early dialysis initiation improved outcomes (85-88%), had a negative impact on quality of life (89%), worsened AVF or PD use (84-90%), led to sicker patients (83%) or was cost effective (61%). Fifty-seven percent of respondents felt uremic symptoms occurred earlier in patients with advancing age or co-morbid illness. Half (51.8%) of the respondents felt there was an absolute eGFR at which they would initiate dialysis in an asymptomatic patient. The majority of respondents would initiate dialysis for classic indications for dialysis, such as volume overload (90.1%) and cachexia (83.7%) however a significant number chose other factors that may lead them to early dialysis initiation including avoiding an emergency (28.4%), patient preference (21.3%) and non-compliance (8.5%).Limitations25% response rate.ConclusionsAlthough the majority of nephrologists in Canada who responded followed evidence-based practice regarding the timing of dialysis initiation, knowledge gaps and areas of clinical uncertainty exist. The implementation and evaluation of formal policies and knowledge translation activities may limit potentially unnecessary early dialysis initiation.

Project description:IntroductionInitiating dialysis in acute kidney injury (AKI) in an intensive care unit (ICU) remains a subjective clinical decision. We examined factors and practice patterns that influence early initiation of dialysis in ICU patients with acute kidney injury.MethodsAn online survey presented nephrologists (international) with three case scenarios with unstated predicted mortality rates of < 10%, 10 - 30% and > 30%. For each case the respondents were asked 4 questions about influences on the decision whether or not to initiate dialysis within 24 hours: Q1, likelihood of initiating dialysis; Q2, threshold of BUN levels (< 50, 50 - 75, 76 - 100, > 100 mg/dl) considered relevant to this decision; Q3, magnitude of creatinine elevation (two to three-fold increase; greater than threefold increase; absolute level > 5 mg/dl regardless of change) considered relevant; Q4, a rank order of the influence of five parameters (BUN level, change of creatinine from baseline, oxygen saturation, potassium level, and urine output), 1 being the most influential and 5 being the least influential.ResultsOne hundred seventy-two nephrologists (73% in practice for > 5 years; 70% from the U.S.A.) responded to the survey. The proportion of subjects likely to initiate early dialysis increased (76% to 94%), as did the predicted mortality (p < 0.001). The proportion of subjects considering early dialysis at a BUN level ? 75 increased from 17% to 30 to 40% as the predicted mortality of the cases increased (p < 0.0001). The proportion of subjects choosing absolute creatinine level to be more influential than relative increment, went from 60% to 54% to 43% as predicted mortality increased (p < 0.0001). Rank-order analysis indicated that influence of oxygen saturation and potassium level on dialysis decision showed a significant change with severity of illness, but BUN level and creatinine elevation remained less influential, and did not change with severity.ConclusionsSeverely ill patients were more likely to be subjected to early dialysis initiation, but its utility is not clear. Rank-order analysis indicates dialysis initiation is still influenced by "imminent" indications rather than a "proactive" decision based on the severity of AKI or azotemia.

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Explaining trends and variation in timing of dialysis initiation in the United States.

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Explaining trends and variation in timing of dialysis initiation in the United States.

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