Dataset Information

Transmission Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic at the District Level in India: Prospective Observational Study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:On March 9, 2020, the first COVID-19 case was reported in Jodhpur, Rajasthan, in the northwestern part of India. Understanding the epidemiology of COVID-19 at a local level is becoming increasingly important to guide measures to control the pandemic. OBJECTIVE:The aim of this study was to estimate the serial interval and basic reproduction number (R0) to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak at a district level. We used standard mathematical modeling approaches to assess the utility of these factors in determining the effectiveness of COVID-19 responses and projecting the size of the epidemic. METHODS:Contact tracing of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 was performed to obtain the serial intervals. The median and 95th percentile values of the SARS-CoV-2 serial interval were obtained from the best fits with the weibull, log-normal, log-logistic, gamma, and generalized gamma distributions. Aggregate and instantaneous R0 values were derived with different methods using the EarlyR and EpiEstim packages in R software. RESULTS:The median and 95th percentile values of the serial interval were 5.23 days (95% CI 4.72-5.79) and 13.20 days (95% CI 10.90-18.18), respectively. R0 during the first 30 days of the outbreak was 1.62 (95% CI 1.07-2.17), which subsequently decreased to 1.15 (95% CI 1.09-1.21). The peak instantaneous R0 values obtained using a Poisson process developed by Jombert et al were 6.53 (95% CI 2.12-13.38) and 3.43 (95% CI 1.71-5.74) for sliding time windows of 7 and 14 days, respectively. The peak R0 values obtained using the method by Wallinga and Teunis were 2.96 (95% CI 2.52-3.36) and 2.92 (95% CI 2.65-3.22) for sliding time windows of 7 and 14 days, respectively. R0 values of 1.21 (95% CI 1.09-1.34) and 1.12 (95% CI 1.03-1.21) for the 7- and 14-day sliding time windows, respectively, were obtained on July 6, 2020, using method by Jombert et al. Using the method by Wallinga and Teunis, values of 0.32 (95% CI 0.27-0.36) and 0.61 (95% CI 0.58-0.63) were obtained for the 7- and 14-day sliding time windows, respectively. The projection of cases over the next month was 2131 (95% CI 1799-2462). Reductions of transmission by 25% and 50% corresponding to reasonable and aggressive control measures could lead to 58.7% and 84.0% reductions in epidemic size, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The projected transmission reductions indicate that strengthening control measures could lead to proportionate reductions of the size of the COVID-19 epidemic. Time-dependent instantaneous R0 estimation based on the process by Jombart et al was found to be better suited for guiding COVID-19 response at the district level than overall R0 or instantaneous R0 estimation by the Wallinga and Teunis method. A data-driven approach at the local level is proposed to be useful in guiding public health strategy and surge capacity planning.

SUBMITTER: Saurabh S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7572116 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Transmission Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic at the District Level in India: Prospective Observational Study.

Saurabh Suman S Verma Mahendra Kumar MK Gautam Vaishali V Kumar Nitesh N Goel Akhil Dhanesh AD Gupta Manoj Kumar MK Bhardwaj Pankaj P Misra Sanjeev S

JMIR public health and surveillance 20201015 4

<h4>Background</h4>On March 9, 2020, the first COVID-19 case was reported in Jodhpur, Rajasthan, in the northwestern part of India. Understanding the epidemiology of COVID-19 at a local level is becoming increasingly important to guide measures to control the pandemic.<h4>Objective</h4>The aim of this study was to estimate the serial interval and basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak at a district level. We used standard mathem ...[more]

PMID: 33001839

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 is affecting the entire population of India. Understanding district level correlates of the COVID-19's infection ratio (IR) is essential for formulating policies and interventions.ObjectiveThe present study aims to investigate the district level variation in COVID-19 during March-October 2020. The present study also examines the association between India's socioeconomic and demographic characteristics and the COVID-19 infection ratio at the district level.Data and methodsWe used publicly available crowdsourced district-level data on COVID-19 from March 14, 2020, to October 31, 2020. We identified hotspot and cold spot districts for COVID-19 cases and infection ratio. We have also carried out two sets of regression analysis to highlight the district level demographic, socioeconomic, household infrastructure facilities, and health-related correlates of the COVID-19 infection ratio.ResultsThe results showed on October 31, 2020, the IR in India was 42.85 per hundred thousand population, with the highest in Kerala (259.63) and the lowest in Bihar (6.58). About 80 percent infected cases and 61 percent deaths were observed in nine states (Delhi, Gujarat, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana). Moran's- I showed a positive yet poor spatial clustering in the COVID-19 IR over neighboring districts. Our regression analysis demonstrated that percent of 15-59 aged population, district population density, percent of the urban population, district-level testing ratio, and percent of stunted children were significantly and positively associated with the COVID-19 infection ratio. We also found that, with an increasing percentage of literacy, there is a lower infection ratio in Indian districts.ConclusionThe COVID-19 infection ratio was found to be more rampant in districts with a higher working-age population, higher population density, a higher urban population, a higher testing ratio, and a higher level of stunted children. The study findings provide crucial information for policy discourse, emphasizing the vulnerability of the highly urbanized and densely populated areas.

Project description:BackgroundInformation disclosure is a top priority for official responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The timely and standardized information published by authorities as a response to the crisis can better inform the public and enable better preparations for the pandemic; however, there is limited evidence of any systematic analyses of the disclosed epidemic information. This in turn has important implications for risk communication.ObjectiveThis study aimed to describe and compare the officially released content regarding local epidemic situations as well as analyze the characteristics of information disclosure through local communication in major cities in China.MethodsThe 31 capital cities in mainland China were included in this city-level observational study. Data were retrieved from local municipalities and health commission websites as of March 18, 2020. A checklist was employed as a rapid qualitative assessment tool to analyze the information disclosure performance of each city. Descriptive analyses and data visualizations were produced to present and compare the comparative performances of the cities.ResultsIn total, 29 of 31 cities (93.5%) established specific COVID-19 webpages to disclose information. Among them, 12 of the city webpages were added to their corresponding municipal websites. A majority of the cities (21/31, 67.7%) published their first cases of infection in a timely manner on the actual day of confirmation. Regarding the information disclosures highlighted on the websites, news updates from local media or press briefings were the most prevalent (28/29, 96.6%), followed by epidemic surveillance (25/29, 86.2%), and advice for the public (25/29, 86.2%). Clarifications of misinformation and frequently asked questions were largely overlooked as only 2 cities provided this valuable information. The median daily update frequency of epidemic surveillance summaries was 1.2 times per day (IQR 1.0-1.3 times), and the majority of these summaries (18/25, 72.0%) also provided detailed information regarding confirmed cases. The reporting of key indicators in the epidemic surveillance summaries, as well as critical facts included in the confirmed case reports, varied substantially between cities. In general, the best performance in terms of timely reporting and the transparency of information disclosures were observed in the municipalities directly administered by the central government compared to the other cities.ConclusionsTimely and effective efforts to disclose information related to the COVID-19 epidemic have been made in major cities in China. Continued improvements to local authority reporting will contribute to more effective public communication and efficient public health research responses. The development of protocols and the standardization of epidemic message templates-as well as the use of uniform operating procedures to provide regular information updates-should be prioritized to ensure a coordinated national response.

Project description:BackgroundAn epidemiological and entomological study was carried out in Balaghat district, Madhya Pradesh, India to understand the dynamics of forest malaria transmission in a difficult and hard to reach area where indoor residual spray and insecticide treated nets were used for vector control.MethodsThis community based cross-sectional study was undertaken from January 2010 to December 2012 in Baihar and Birsa Community Health Centres of district Balaghat for screening malaria cases. Entomological surveillance included indoor resting collections, pyrethrum spray catches and light trap catches. Anophelines were assayed by ELISA for detection of Plasmodium circumsporozoite protein.FindingsPlasmodium falciparum infection accounted for >80% of all infections. P. vivax 16.5%, P. malariae 0.75% and remaining were mixed infections of P. falciparum, P. vivax and P. malariae. More than, 30% infections were found in infants under 6 months of age. Overall, an increasing trend in malaria positivity was observed from 2010 to 2012 (chi-square for trend = 663.55; P<0.0001). Twenty five Anopheles culicifacies (sibling species C, D and E) were positive for circumsporozoite protein of P. falciparum (44%) and P. vivax (56%). Additionally, 2 An. fluviatilis, were found positive for P. falciparum and 1 for P. vivax (sibling species S and T). An. fluviatilis sibling species T was found as vector in forest villages for the first time in India.ConclusionThese results showed that the study villages are experiencing almost perennial malaria transmission inspite of indoor residual spray and insecticide treated nets. Therefore, there is a need for new indoor residual insecticides which has longer residual life or complete coverage of population with long lasting insecticide treated nets or both indoor residual spray and long lasting bed nets for effective vector control. There is a need to undertake a well designed case control study to evaluate the efficacy of these interventions.

Dataset Information

Transmission Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic at the District Level in India: Prospective Observational Study.

Publications

Transmission Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic at the District Level in India: Prospective Observational Study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets