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Phenomenological Modelling of COVID-19 Epidemics in Sri Lanka, Italy, the United States, and Hebei Province of China.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in increasing number of infections and deaths every day. Lack of specialized treatments for the disease demands preventive measures based on statistical/mathematical models. The analysis of epidemiological curve fitting, on number of daily infections across affected countries, provides useful insights on the characteristics of the epidemic. A variety of phenomenological models are available to capture the dynamics of disease spread and growth. The number of daily new infections and cumulative number of infections in COVID-19 over four selected countries, namely, Sri Lanka, Italy, the United States, and Hebei province of China, from the first day of appearance of cases to 2nd July 2020 were used in the study. Gompertz, logistic, Weibull, and exponential growth curves were fitted on the cumulative number of infections across countries. AIC, BIC, RMSE, and R 2 were used to determine the best fitting curve for each country. Results revealed that the most appropriate growth curves for Sri Lanka, Italy, the United States, and China (Hebei) are the logistic, Gompertz, Weibull, and Gompertz curves, respectively. Country-wise, overall growth rate, final epidemic size, and short-term forecasts were evaluated using the selected model. Daily log incidences in each country were regressed before and after the identified peak time of the respective outbreak of epidemic. Hence, doubling time/halving time together with daily growth rates and predictions was estimated. Findings and relevant interpretations demonstrate that the outbreak seems to be extinct in Hebei, China, whereas further transmissions are possible in the United States. In Italy and Sri Lanka, current outbreaks transmit in a decreasing rate.

SUBMITTER: Attanayake AMCH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7573661 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Phenomenological Modelling of COVID-19 Epidemics in Sri Lanka, Italy, the United States, and Hebei Province of China.

Attanayake A M C H AMCH Perera S S N SSN Jayasinghe S S

Computational and mathematical methods in medicine 20201018

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in increasing number of infections and deaths every day. Lack of specialized treatments for the disease demands preventive measures based on statistical/mathematical models. The analysis of epidemiological curve fitting, on number of daily infections across affected countries, provides useful insights on the characteristics of the epidemic. A variety of phenomenological models are available to capture the dynamics of disease spread and growth. The number of dai ...[more]

PMID: 33101454

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Project description:This paper investigates human flourishing in five culturally distinct populations. Empirical differences in human flourishing were examined using the recently proposed Flourish Index (FI) and Secure Flourish Index (SFI). Five domains for human flourishing are proposed for FI: (D1) happiness and life satisfaction; (D2) physical and mental health; (D3) meaning and purpose; (D4) character and virtue; and (D5) close social relationships. Specification of SFI was augmented by an additional financial and material stability domain (D6). Psychometric properties of FI and SFI were examined using data from the SHINE Well-Being Survey. Between June 2017 and March 2018, a total of 8,873 respondents participated in the study - in the US (4083 participants), Sri Lanka (1284 participants), Cambodia (587 participants), China (419 participants), and Mexico (2500 participants). US participants were customers of a financial institution, while non-US participants were clothing industry workers in the supply chain of a global brand. Exploratory and confirmatory factor models were used to validate the proposed indices. An exploratory approach informed analysis for item groupings. Confirmatory factor models were used to investigate the hierarchical structure of the indices. Configural, metric, and partial scalar measurement invariance were established, which not only supported the universal character of the indices but also validated use of the indices for culturally distinct populations. Findings from our study enrich our knowledge about human flourishing in five culturally distinct populations. With the exception of happiness and life satisfaction, respondents in the US, despite enjoying the highest financial and material stability, scored the lowest in all other domains of human flourishing. Respondents in China excelled in close social relationship and health domains. In addition to life satisfaction and happiness, character and virtue were relatively high in Cambodia. Respondents in Mexico, despite having the lowest scores in financial and material stability, had the greatest meaning and purpose to their lives. Respondents in Sri Lanka were the least happy and satisfied with life.

Project description:BackgroundDengue is a frequent cause of acute febrile illness with an expanding global distribution. Since the 1960s, dengue in Sri Lanka has been documented primarily along the heavily urbanized western coast with periodic shifting of serotypes. Outbreaks from 2005-2008 were attributed to a new clade of DENV-3 and more recently to a newly introduced genotype of DENV-1. In 2007, we conducted etiologic surveillance of acute febrile illness in the Southern Province and confirmed dengue in only 6.3% of febrile patients, with no cases of DENV-1 identified. To re-evaluate the importance of dengue as an etiology of acute febrile illness in this region, we renewed fever surveillance in the Southern Province to newly identify and characterize dengue.Methodology/principal findingsA cross-sectional surveillance study was conducted at the largest tertiary care hospital in the Southern Province from 2012-2013. A total of 976 patients hospitalized with acute undifferentiated fever were enrolled, with 64.3% male and 31.4% children. Convalescent blood samples were collected from 877 (89.6%). Dengue virus isolation, dengue RT-PCR, and paired IgG ELISA were performed. Acute dengue was confirmed as the etiology for 388 (39.8%) of 976 hospitalizations, with most cases (291, 75.0%) confirmed virologically and by multiple methods. Among 351 cases of virologically confirmed dengue, 320 (91.2%) were due to DENV-1. Acute dengue was associated with self-reported rural residence, travel, and months having greatest rainfall. Sequencing of selected dengue viruses revealed that sequences were most closely related to those described from China and Southeast Asia, not nearby India.Conclusions/significanceWe describe the first epidemic of DENV-1 in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka in a population known to be susceptible to this serotype because of prior study. Dengue accounted for 40% of acute febrile illnesses in the current study. The emergence of DENV-1 as the foremost serotype in this densely populated but agrarian population highlights the changing epidemiology of dengue and the need for continued surveillance and prevention.

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Dataset Information

Phenomenological Modelling of COVID-19 Epidemics in Sri Lanka, Italy, the United States, and Hebei Province of China.

Publications

Phenomenological Modelling of COVID-19 Epidemics in Sri Lanka, Italy, the United States, and Hebei Province of China.

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