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Prognostic models for predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in resource-limited countries: a systematic review.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:To identify and appraise the methodological rigour of multivariable prognostic models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). DESIGN:Systematic review of peer-reviewed journals. DATA SOURCES:MEDLINE, CINAHL, Google Scholar and Web of Science electronic databases since inception to August 2019. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA:We included model development studies predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in LMIC. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS:This systematic review followed the Checklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies framework. The risk of bias assessment was conducted using Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). No quantitative summary was conducted due to substantial heterogeneity that was observed after assessing the studies included. RESULTS:Our search strategy identified a total of 4054 unique articles. Among these, 3545 articles were excluded after review of titles and abstracts as they covered non-relevant topics. Full texts of 509 articles were screened for eligibility, of which 15 studies reporting 21 models met the eligibility criteria. Based on the PROBAST tool, risk of bias was assessed in four domains; participant, predictors, outcome and analyses. The domain of statistical analyses was the main area of concern where none of the included models was judged to be of low risk of bias. CONCLUSION:This review identified 21 models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in LMIC. However, most reports characterising these models are of poor quality when judged against recent reporting standards due to a high risk of bias. Future studies should adhere to standardised methodological criteria and progress from identifying new risk scores to validating or adapting existing scores. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER:CRD42018088599.

SUBMITTER: Ogero M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7574949 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prognostic models for predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in resource-limited countries: a systematic review.

Ogero Morris M Sarguta Rachel Jelagat RJ Malla Lucas L Aluvaala Jalemba J Agweyu Ambrose A English Mike M Onyango Nelson Owuor NO Akech Samuel S

BMJ open 20201019 10

<h4>Objectives</h4>To identify and appraise the methodological rigour of multivariable prognostic models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).<h4>Design</h4>Systematic review of peer-reviewed journals.<h4>Data sources</h4>MEDLINE, CINAHL, Google Scholar and Web of Science electronic databases since inception to August 2019.<h4>Eligibility criteria</h4>We included model development studies predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in LMIC ...[more]

PMID: 33077558

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Project description:Introduction: In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where healthcare resources are often limited, making decisions on appropriate treatment choices is critical in ensuring reduction of paediatric deaths as well as instilling proper utilisation of the already constrained healthcare resources. Well-developed and validated prognostic models can aid in early recognition of potential risks thus contributing to the reduction of mortality rates. The aim of the planned systematic review is to identify and appraise the methodological rigor of multivariable prognostic models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in LMIC in order to identify statistical and methodological shortcomings deserving special attention and to identify models for external validation. Methods and analysis: This protocol has followed the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Protocols. A search of articles will be conducted in MEDLINE, Google Scholar, and CINAHL (via EbscoHost) from inception to 2019 without any language restriction. We will also perform a search in Web of Science to identify additional reports that cite the identified studies. Data will be extracted from relevant articles in accordance with the Cochrane Prognosis Methods' guidance; the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies. Methodological quality assessment will be performed based on prespecified domains of the Prediction study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Ethics and dissemination: Ethical permission will not be required as this study will use published data. Findings from this review will be shared through publication in peer-reviewed scientific journals and, presented at conferences. It is our hope that this study will contribute to the development of robust multivariable prognostic models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Registration: PROSPERO ID CRD42018088599; registered on 13 February 2018.

Project description:ObjectivesTo update the current evidence base on paediatric postdischarge mortality (PDM) in developing countries. Secondary objectives included an evaluation of risk factors, timing and location of PDM.DesignSystematic literature review without meta-analysis.Data sourcesSearches of Medline and EMBASE were conducted from October 2012 to July 2017.Eligibility criteriaStudies were included if they were conducted in developing countries and examined paediatric PDM. 1238 articles were screened, yielding 11 eligible studies. These were added to 13 studies identified in a previous systematic review including studies prior to October 2012. In total, 24 studies were included for analysis.Data extraction and synthesisTwo independent reviewers extracted and synthesised data using Microsoft Excel.ResultsStudies were conducted mostly within African countries (19 of 24) and looked at all admissions or specific subsets of admissions. The primary subpopulations included malnutrition, respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, malaria and anaemia. The anaemia and malaria subpopulations had the lowest PDM rates (typically 1%-2%), while those with malnutrition and respiratory infections had the highest (typically 3%-20%). Although there was significant heterogeneity between study populations and follow-up periods, studies consistently found rates of PDM to be similar, or to exceed, in-hospital mortality. Furthermore, over two-thirds of deaths after discharge occurred at home. Highly significant risk factors for PDM across all infectious admissions included HIV status, young age, pneumonia, malnutrition, anthropometric variables, hypoxia, anaemia, leaving hospital against medical advice and previous hospitalisations.ConclusionsPostdischarge mortality rates are often as high as in-hospital mortality, yet remain largely unaddressed. Most children who die following discharge do so at home, suggesting that interventions applied prior to discharge are ideal to addressing this neglected cause of mortality. The development, therefore, of evidence-based, risk-guided, interventions must be a focus to achieve the sustainable development goals.

Project description:Aims/hypothesisHospital admissions for hypoglycaemia represent a significant burden on individuals with diabetes and have a substantial economic impact on healthcare systems. To date, no prognostic models have been developed to predict outcomes following admission for hypoglycaemia. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models to estimate risk of inpatient death, 24 h discharge and one month readmission in people admitted to hospital for hypoglycaemia.MethodsWe used the Hospital Episode Statistics database, which includes data on all hospital admission to National Health Service hospital trusts in England, to extract admissions for hypoglycaemia between 2010 and 2014. We developed, internally and temporally validated, and compared two prognostic risk models for each outcome. The first model included age, sex, ethnicity, region, social deprivation and Charlson score ('base' model). In the second model, we added to the 'base' model the 20 most common medical conditions and applied a stepwise backward selection of variables ('disease' model). We used C-index and calibration plots to assess model performance and developed a calculator to estimate probabilities of outcomes according to individual characteristics.ResultsIn derivation samples, 296 out of 11,136 admissions resulted in inpatient death, 1789/33,825 in one month readmission and 8396/33,803 in 24 h discharge. Corresponding values for validation samples were: 296/10,976, 1207/22,112 and 5363/22,107. The two models had similar discrimination. In derivation samples, C-indices for the base and disease models, respectively, were: 0.77 (95% CI 0.75, 0.80) and 0.78 (0.75, 0.80) for death, 0.57 (0.56, 0.59) and 0.57 (0.56, 0.58) for one month readmission, and 0.68 (0.67, 0.69) and 0.69 (0.68, 0.69) for 24 h discharge. Corresponding values in validation samples were: 0.74 (0.71, 0.76) and 0.74 (0.72, 0.77), 0.55 (0.54, 0.57) and 0.55 (0.53, 0.56), and 0.66 (0.65, 0.67) and 0.67 (0.66, 0.68). In both derivation and validation samples, calibration plots showed good agreement for the three outcomes. We developed a calculator of probabilities for inpatient death and 24 h discharge given the low performance of one month readmission models.Conclusions/interpretationThis simple and pragmatic tool to predict in-hospital death and 24 h discharge has the potential to reduce mortality and improve discharge in people admitted for hypoglycaemia.

Project description:BackgroundDiaphyseal femur fractures contribute up to 40% of paediatric orthopaedic admissions with the World Health Organisation data showing youth are particularly vulnerable and road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for children and young adults. Different mechanisms results to these injuries and they vary with age and geographical location of the patient. Understanding the incidence, mechanism and pattern of these injuries allows planning for preventive measures and treatment to meet modern day patient demands, generation of appropriate and timely protocols with minimum social and economic burden to the patient and family.Objectives and methodsA hospital based cross sectional study was conducted using the orthopaedic department patient registry among children aged under 18 years admitted from 2014-2018. Our research question was to determine the epidemiology of diaphyseal femur fractures and coexisting associated injuries among admitted paediatric orthopaedic patients. Patient files were reviewed from the medical records department and a data collecting sheet was used to record demographics and injury data. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals for associated injuries in paediatric diaphyseal femur fractures were estimated using multivariable logistic regression model.ResultsWe found the prevalence of diaphyseal femur fracture among paediatric orthopaedic admissions was 18% with the majority 111 (68.5%) being males. The leading injury mechanism was a fall (57.4%) followed by road traffic injuries (35.8%) out of which 48.3% resulted from pedestrian vs motorcycle accidents. Traumatic brain injury (TBI) was the most common associated injuries accounting for 69% of these injuries with the majority 79% occurring in patients aged 6 years and older. With age specific analysis, children in 6-12 years and 13-18 years age groups, had 8 and 11 times higher odds for associated injuries (OR 8.25, 95% CI, 1.04-65.31) p = 0.046 and (OR 10.54, 95% CI, 1.26-88.31) p = 0.031 respectively compared to those younger ≤ 2 years. Road traffic related injuries had 17 times higher odds of associated injuries when compared to fall (OR 16.73, 95% CI, 6.28-44.57) p < 0.001. 112 (69.1%) of femur fractures were treated by non-operative method out of this 90 (55.6%) by traction with delayed Spica application. The overall mean duration of hospital stay was 18.5 ± 11 days.ConclusionPedestrian vs motorcycle injuries was the leading specific cause of paediatric diaphyseal femur fractures with TBI being the common associated injury. Non-operative management was the most utilized treatment plan and contributed to ten times higher odds for a longer duration of hospital stay. Initiatives to insure children safety on roads should be strengthened in order to reduce/eliminate this burden. Application and practice of current evidence based clinical guidelines and recommendations is paramount for timely and appropriate treatment of these injuries.

Project description:BackgroundAgeing into adulthood is challenging at baseline, and doing so with a chronic disease can add increased stress and vulnerability. Worldwide, a substantial care gap exists as children transition from care in a paediatric to adult setting. There is no current consensus on safe and equitable healthcare transition (HCT) for patients with chronic disease in resource-denied settings. Much of the existing literature is specific to HIV care. The objective of this narrative review was to summarise current literature related to adolescent HCT not associated with HIV, in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) and other resource-denied settings, in order to inform equitable health policy strategies.MethodsA literature search was performed using defined search terms in PubMed and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature databases to identify all peer-reviewed studies published until January 2020, pertaining to paediatric to adult HCT for adolescents and young adults with chronic disease in resource-denied settings. Following deduplication, 1111 studies were screened and reviewed by two independent reviewers, of which 10 studies met the inclusion criteria. Resulting studies were included in thematic analysis and narrative synthesis.ResultsTwelve subthemes emerged, leading to recommendations which support equitable and age-appropriate adolescent care. Recommendations include (1) improvement of community health education and resilience tools for puberty, reproductive health and mental health comorbidities; (2) strengthening of health systems to create individualised adolescent-responsive policy; (3) incorporation of social and financial resources in the healthcare setting; and (4) formalisation of institution-wide procedures to address community-identified barriers to successful transition.ConclusionLimitations of existing evidence relate to the paucity of formal policy for paediatric to adult transition in LMICs for patients with childhood-onset conditions, in the absence of a diagnosis of HIV. With a rise in successful treatments for paediatric-onset chronic disease, adolescent health and transition programmes are needed to guide effective health policy and risk reduction for adolescents in resource-denied settings.

Project description:Hepatitis C (HCV) is a global pandemic. The World Health Organization has developed a strategic plan for HCV elimination that focuses on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-risk populations, including people who inject drugs (PWID). While direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies are highly effective at eliminating HCV infections and have few side effects, medical professionals and policymakers remain concerned about the risk of reinfection among PWID. This study is a systematic review of research measuring the rate of HCV reinfection among PWID in LMICs and identifies additional areas for further research. A systematic search strategy was used to identify studies documenting HCV reinfection after sustained virologic response in PWID in LMICs. We refined results to include studies where at least 50% of participants had DAA treatment for primary HCV infection. Pooled reinfection rate was calculated across all studies. Seven studies met eligibility criteria. Most studies were conducted in six upper middle-income countries (Mexico, Romania, Russia, Taiwan, Georgi, and Brazil) and one lower middle-income country (Bangladesh) with a total of 7665 participants. No study included information from PWID in low-income countries. Sample sizes ranged from 200 to 3004 individuals, with demographic data missing for most participants. Four studies used deep gene sequencing, and reflex genotyping procedures to differentiate reinfection (infection by a different HCV genotype/subtype) from virologic relapse (infection by the same strain). The follow-up time of people cured from primary chronic HCV infection ranged from 12 weeks to 6.6 years. The pooled reinfection rate of all seven studies was 2.8 (range: 0.02 to 10.5) cases per 100 person-years (PY). In the five studies that differentiated relapse from reinfection, the incidence of reinfection was 1.0 per 100 PY. To date, research on reinfection rates among PWID in LMICs remains limited. Research focused on PWID in low-income countries is particularly needed to inform clinical decision making and evidence-based programs. While rates of reinfection among PWID who complete DAA treatment in upper and lower middle-income countries were similar or lower than rates observed in PWID in high-income countries, the rates were highly variable and factors may influence the accuracy of these measurements. This systematic review identifies several areas for continued research. Policies concerning access to HCV testing and treatment should be comprehensive and not place restrictions on PWID in these settings.

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Prognostic models for predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in resource-limited countries: a systematic review.

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Prognostic models for predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in resource-limited countries: a systematic review.

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