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Methodological rigor of prognostic models for predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review protocol.

ABSTRACT: Introduction: In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where healthcare resources are often limited, making decisions on appropriate treatment choices is critical in ensuring reduction of paediatric deaths as well as instilling proper utilisation of the already constrained healthcare resources. Well-developed and validated prognostic models can aid in early recognition of potential risks thus contributing to the reduction of mortality rates. The aim of the planned systematic review is to identify and appraise the methodological rigor of multivariable prognostic models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in LMIC in order to identify statistical and methodological shortcomings deserving special attention and to identify models for external validation. Methods and analysis: This protocol has followed the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Protocols. A search of articles will be conducted in MEDLINE, Google Scholar, and CINAHL (via EbscoHost) from inception to 2019 without any language restriction. We will also perform a search in Web of Science to identify additional reports that cite the identified studies. Data will be extracted from relevant articles in accordance with the Cochrane Prognosis Methods' guidance; the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies. Methodological quality assessment will be performed based on prespecified domains of the Prediction study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Ethics and dissemination: Ethical permission will not be required as this study will use published data. Findings from this review will be shared through publication in peer-reviewed scientific journals and, presented at conferences. It is our hope that this study will contribute to the development of robust multivariable prognostic models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Registration: PROSPERO ID CRD42018088599; registered on 13 February 2018.

SUBMITTER: Ogero M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7364185 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Methodological rigor of prognostic models for predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review protocol.

Ogero Morris M Sarguta Rachel R Malla Lucas L Aluvaala Jalemba J Agweyu Ambrose A Akech Samuel S

Wellcome open research 20200527

<b>Introduction:</b> In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where healthcare resources are often limited, making decisions on appropriate treatment choices is critical in ensuring reduction of paediatric deaths as well as instilling proper utilisation of the already constrained healthcare resources. Well-developed and validated prognostic models can aid in early recognition of potential risks thus contributing to the reduction of mortality rates. The aim of the planned systematic review is ...[more]

PMID: 32724864

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Project description:BackgroundIn low- and middle-income countries, approximately two thirds of maternal deaths occur in the postpartum period. Yet, care for women beyond 24 h after discharge is limited. The objective of this systematic review is to summarize current evidence on socio-demographic and clinical risk factors for (1) postpartum mortality and (2) postpartum hospital readmission.MethodsA combination of keywords and subject headings (i.e. MeSH terms) for postpartum maternal mortality or readmission were searched. Articles published up to January 9, 2021 were identified in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL databases, without language restrictions. Studies reporting socio-demographic or clinical risk factors for postpartum mortality or readmission within six weeks of delivery among women who delivered a livebirth in a low- or middle-income country were included. Data were extracted independently by two reviewers based on study characteristics, population, and outcomes. Included studies were assessed for quality and risk of bias using the Downs and Black checklist for ratings of randomized and non-randomized studies.ResultsOf 8783 abstracts screened, seven studies were included (total N = 387,786). Risk factors for postpartum mortality included Caesarean mode of delivery, nulliparity, low or very low birthweight, and shock upon admission. Risk factors for postpartum readmission included Caesarean mode of delivery, HIV positive serostatus, and abnormal body temperature.ConclusionsFew studies reported individual socio-demographic or clinical risk factors for mortality or readmission after delivery in low- and middle-income countries; only Caesarean delivery was consistently reported. Further research is needed to identify factors that put women at greatest risk of post-discharge complications and mortality. Understanding post-discharge risk would facilitate targeted postpartum care and reduce adverse outcomes in women after delivery.Trial registrationPROSPERO registration number: CRD42018103955.

Project description:ImportanceHigh amounts of sitting time are associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in high-income countries, but it is unknown whether risks also increase in low- and middle-income countries.ObjectiveTo investigate the association of sitting time with mortality and major CVD in countries at different economic levels using data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cohort study included participants aged 35 to 70 years recruited from January 1, 2003, and followed up until August 31, 2021, in 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries with a median follow-up of 11.1 years.ExposuresDaily sitting time measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire.Main outcomes and measuresThe composite of all-cause mortality and major CVD (defined as cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure).ResultsOf 105 677 participants, 61 925 (58.6%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 50.4 (9.6) years. During a median follow-up of 11.1 (IQR, 8.6-12.2) years, 6233 deaths and 5696 major cardiovascular events (2349 myocardial infarctions, 2966 strokes, 671 heart failure, and 1792 cardiovascular deaths) were documented. Compared with the reference group (<4 hours per day of sitting), higher sitting time (≥8 hours per day) was associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (hazard ratio [HR], 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.28; Pfor trend < .001), all-cause mortality (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.10-1.31; Pfor trend < .001), and major CVD (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.10-1.34; Pfor trend < .001). When stratified by country income levels, the association of sitting time with the composite outcome was stronger in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (≥8 hours per day: HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.16-1.44) compared with high-income and upper-middle-income countries (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.98-1.19; P for interaction = .02). Compared with those who reported sitting time less than 4 hours per day and high physical activity level, participants who sat for 8 or more hours per day experienced a 17% to 50% higher associated risk of the composite outcome across physical activity levels; and the risk was attenuated along with increased physical activity levels.Conclusions and relevanceHigh amounts of sitting time were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and CVD in economically diverse settings, especially in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Reducing sedentary time along with increasing physical activity might be an important strategy for easing the global burden of premature deaths and CVD.

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Methodological rigor of prognostic models for predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review protocol.

Publications

Methodological rigor of prognostic models for predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review protocol.

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