Risk prediction models to guide antibiotic prescribing: a study on adult patients with uncomplicated upper respiratory tract infections in an emergency department.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Appropriate antibiotic prescribing is key to combating antimicrobial resistance. Upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) are common reasons for emergency department (ED) visits and antibiotic use. Differentiating between bacterial and viral infections is not straightforward. We aim to provide an evidence-based clinical decision support tool for antibiotic prescribing using prediction models developed from local data.Methods
Seven hundred-fifteen patients with uncomplicated URTI were recruited and analysed from Singapore's busiest ED, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, from June 2016 to November 2018. Confirmatory tests were performed using the multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for respiratory viruses and point-of-care test for C-reactive protein. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were extracted from the hospital electronic medical records. Seventy percent of the data was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for validation. Decision trees, LASSO and logistic regression models were built to predict when antibiotics were not needed.Results
The median age of the cohort was 36 years old, with 61.2% being male. Temperature and pulse rate were significant factors in all 3 models. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) on the validation set for the models were similar. (LASSO: 0.70 [95% CI: 0.62-0.77], logistic regression: 0.72 [95% CI: 0.65-0.79], decision tree: 0.67 [95% CI: 0.59-0.74]). Combining the results from all models, 58.3% of study participants would not need antibiotics.Conclusion
The models can be easily deployed as a decision support tool to guide antibiotic prescribing in busy EDs.
SUBMITTER: Wong JG
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7605344 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) account for substantial attendances at emergency departments (EDs). There is a need to elucidate determinants of antibiotic prescribing in time-strapped EDs - popular choices for primary care despite highly accessible primary care clinics. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with purposively sampled physicians (n = 9) in an adult ED in Singapore. All interviews were analysed using thematic analysis and further interpreted using the Social Ecological Model to explain prescribing determinants. Themes included: (1) reliance on clinical knowledge and judgement, (2) patient-related factors, (3) patient-physician relationship factors, (4) perceived practice norms, (5) policies and treatment guidelines and (6) patient education and awareness. The physicians relied strongly on their clinical knowledge and judgement in managing URTI cases and seldom interfered with their peers' clinical decisions. Despite departmental norms of not prescribing antibiotics for URTIs, physicians would prescribe antibiotics when faced with uncertainty in patients' diagnoses, treating immunocompromised or older patients with comorbidities, and for patients demanding antibiotics, especially under time constraints. Participants had a preference for antibiotic prescribing guidelines based on local epidemiology, but viewed hospital policies on prescribing as a hindrance to clinical judgement. Participants highlighted the need for more public education and awareness on the appropriate use of antibiotics and management of URTIs. Organisational practice norms strongly influenced antibiotic prescribing decisions by physicians, who can be swayed by time pressures and patient demands. Clinical decision support tools, hospital guidelines and patient education targeting at individual, interpersonal and community levels could reduce unnecessary antibiotic use.
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Project description:Background: High levels of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Ghana require the exploration of new approaches to optimise antimicrobial prescribing. This study aims to establish the feasibility of implementation of different delayed/back-up prescribing models on antimicrobial prescribing for upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs). Methods: This study was part of a quality improvement project at LEKMA Hospital, Ghana, (Dec 2019-Feb 2020). Patients meeting inclusion criteria were assigned to one of four groups (Group 0: No prescription given; Group 1; Patient received post-dated antibiotic prescription; Group 2: Offer of a rapid reassessment of patient by a nurse practitioner after 3 days; and Group 3: Post-dated prescription forwarded to hospital pharmacy). Patients were contacted 10 days afterwards to ascertain wellbeing and actions taken, and patients were asked rate the service on a Likert scale. Post-study informal discussions were conducted with hospital staff. Results: In total, 142 patients met inclusion criteria. Groups 0, 1, 2 and 3 had 61, 16, 44 and 21 patients, respectively. Common diagnosis was sore throat (73%). Only one patient took antibiotics after 3 days. Nearly all (141/142) patients were successfully contacted on day 10, and of these, 102 (72%) rated their experiences as good or very good. Informal discussions with staff revealed improved knowledge of AMR. Conclusions: Delayed/back-up prescribing can reduce antibiotic consumption amongst outpatient department patients with suspected URTIs. Delayed/back-up prescribing can be implemented safely in low and middle-income countries (LMICs).
| S-EPMC7694150 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThis study aimed to evaluate the clinical safety of delayed antibiotic prescribing for upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs), which is recommended in treatment guidelines for less severe cases.MethodsTwo population-based cohort studies used the English Clinical Practice Research Databank and Welsh Secure Anonymized Information Linkage, containing electronic health records from primary care linked to hospital admission records. Patients with URTI and prescriptions of amoxicillin, clarithromycin, doxycycline, erythromycin, or phenoxymethylpenicillin were identified. Patients were stratified according to delayed and immediate prescribing relative to URTI diagnosis. Outcome of interest was infection-related hospital admission after 30 days.ResultsThe population included 1.82 million patients with an URTI and antibiotic prescription; 91.7% had an antibiotic at URTI diagnosis date (immediate) and 8.3% had URTI diagnosis in 1-30 days before (delayed). Delayed antibiotic prescribing was associated with a 52% increased risk of infection-related hospital admissions (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-1.62). The probability of delayed antibiotic prescribing was unrelated to predicted risks of hospital admission. Analyses of the number needed to harm showed considerable variability across different patient groups (median with delayed antibiotic prescribing, 1357; 2.5% percentile, 295; 97.5% percentile, 3366).ConclusionsThis is the first large population-based study examining the safety of delayed antibiotic prescribing. Waiting to treat URTI was associated with increased risk of hospital admission, although delayed antibiotic prescribing was used similarly between high- and low-risk patients. There is a need to better target delayed antibiotic prescribing to URTI patients with lower risks of complications.
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Project description:BackgroundMost antibiotic prescribing for upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and acute bronchitis is inappropriate. Substantive and sustained reductions in prescribing are needed to reduce antibiotic resistance. Prescribing habits develop early in clinicians' careers. Hence, general practice (GP) trainees are an important group to target.ObjectivesWe aimed to establish temporal trends in antibiotic prescribing for URTIs and acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis by Australian GP trainees (registrars).MethodsA longitudinal analysis, 2010-2019, of the Registrars Clinical Encounters in Training (ReCEnT) dataset. In ReCEnT, registrars record clinical and educational content of 60 consecutive consultations, on 3 occasions, 6 monthly. Analyses were of new diagnoses of URTI and acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis, with the outcome variable a systemic antibiotic being prescribed. The independent variable of interest was year of prescribing (modelled as a continuous variable).Results28,372 diagnoses of URTI and 5,289 diagnoses of acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis were recorded by 2,839 registrars. Antibiotic prescribing for URTI decreased from 24% in 2010 to 12% in 2019. Prescribing for acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis decreased from 84% to 72%. "Year" was significantly, negatively associated with antibiotic prescribing for both URTI (odds ratio [OR] 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88-0.93) and acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis (OR 0.92; 95% CI: 0.88-0.96) on multivariable analysis, with estimates representing the mean annual change.ConclusionsGP registrars' prescribing for URTI and acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis declined over the 10-year period. Prescribing for acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis, however, remains higher than recommended benchmarks. Continued education and programme-level antibiotic stewardship interventions are required to further reduce registrars' antibiotic prescribing for acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis to appropriate levels.
| S-EPMC9680663 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) by employing peer comparison with behavioral feedback in the emergency department (ED).DesignA controlled before-and-after study.SettingThe study was conducted in 5 adult EDs at teaching and community hospitals in a health system.PatientsAdults presenting to the ED with a respiratory condition diagnosis code. Hospitalized patients and those with a diagnosis code for a non-respiratory condition for which antibiotics are or may be warranted were excluded.InterventionsAfter a baseline period from January 2016 to March 2018, 3 EDs implemented a feedback intervention with peer comparison between April 2018 and December 2019 for attending physicians. Also, 2 EDs in the health system served as controls. Using interrupted time series analysis, the inappropriate ARI prescribing rate was calculated as the proportion of antibiotic-inappropriate ARI encounters with a prescription. Prescribing rates were also evaluated for all ARIs. Attending physicians at intervention sites received biannual e-mails with their inappropriate prescribing rate and had access to a dashboard that was updated daily showing their performance relative to their peers.ResultsAmong 28,544 ARI encounters, the inappropriate prescribing rate remained stable at the control EDs between the 2 periods (23.0% and 23.8%). At the intervention sites, the inappropriate prescribing rate decreased significantly from 22.0% to 15.2%. Between periods, the overall ARI prescribing rate was 38.1% and 40.6% in the control group and 35.9% and 30.6% in the intervention group.ConclusionsBehavioral feedback with peer comparison can be implemented effectively in the ED to reduce inappropriate prescribing for ARIs.
| S-EPMC9495637 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesInappropriate antibiotic use for respiratory tract infection (RTI) is an ongoing problem linked to the emergence of drug resistance and other adverse effects. Less is known about the prescribing practices of individual physicians or the impact of physician prescribing habits on patient outcomes. We studied the prescribing practices of providers for acute RTIs in an integrated health system, identified patient factors associated with receipt of an antibiotic and assessed the relation between providers' adjusted prescribing rates and a number of patient outcomes.MethodsThis was a retrospective analysis of adults with an RTI visit to any primary care providers across the Cleveland Clinic Health System in 2011-2012. Patients with a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or immunocompromised status were excluded. Logistic regression was used to examine patient factors associated with receipt of an antibiotic.ResultsOf 31,416 patients with an RTI, 54.8% received an antibiotic. Patient factors associated with antibiotic prescribing included white race (odds ratio [OR] 1.35, P < 0.001), presence of fever (OR 1.66, P < 0.001), and a diagnosis of bronchitis (OR 10.98, P < 0.001) or sinusitis (OR 33.85, P < 0.001). Among 290 providers with ≥10 RTI visits, adjusted antibiotic prescribing rates ranged from 0% to 100% (mean 49%). Antibiotics were prescribed more often for sinusitis (OR 33.85, P < 0.001), bronchitis (OR 10.98, P < 0.001), or pharyngitis (OR 1.76, P < 0.001) compared with upper respiratory tract infection. Patients who were prescribed antibiotics at the index visit were more likely to return for RTI within 1 year (adjusted OR 1.26, P < 0.001). Emergency department visits for respiratory complications were rare and not associated with antibiotic receipt.ConclusionsAntibiotic prescribing for RTI varies widely among physicians and cannot be explained by patient factors. Patients prescribed antibiotics for RTI were more likely to return for RTI.
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Project description:IntroductionNational guidelines suggest that most skin abscesses do not require antibiotics, and that cellulitis antibiotics should target streptococci, not community-associated MRSA (CA-MRSA). The objective of this study is to describe antimicrobial treatment of skin infections in U.S. emergency departments (EDs) and analyze potential quality measures.MethodsThe National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) is a 4-stage probability sample of all non-federal U.S. ED visits. In 2007 NHAMCS started recording whether incision and drainage was performed at ED visits. We conducted a retrospective analysis, pooling 2007-2010 data, identified skin infections using diagnostic codes, and identified abscesses by performance of incision and drainage. We generated national estimates and 95% confidence intervals using weighted analyses; quantified frequencies and proportions; and evaluated antibiotic prescribing practices. We evaluated 4 parameters that might serve as quality measures of antibiotic stewardship, and present 2 of them as potentially robust enough for implementation.ResultsOf all ED visits, 3.2% (95% confidence interval 3.1-3.4%) were for skin infection, and 2.7% (2.6-2.9%) were first visits for skin infection, with no increase over time (p=0.80). However, anti-CA-MRSA antibiotic use increased, from 61% (56-66%) to 74% (71-78%) of antibiotic regimens (p<0.001). Twenty-two percent of visits were for abscess, with a non-significant increase (p=0.06). Potential quality measures: Among discharged abscess patients, 87% were prescribed antibiotics (84-90%, overuse). Among antibiotic regimens for abscess patients, 84% included anti-CA-MRSA agents (81-89%, underuse).ConclusionFrom 2007-2010, use of anti-CA-MRSA agents for skin infections increased significantly, despite stable visit frequencies. Antibiotics were over-used for discharged abscess cases, and CA-MRSA-active antibiotics were underused among regimens when antibiotics were used for abscess. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(3):282-289.].
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Project description:OBJECTIVE:Happy Audit project is a European-funded survey aimed at reducing antibiotic prescribing for respiratory tract infections (RTI). The aim of this study is to investigate the antibiotic treatment administered for these RTIs in Spain and to find out which criteria are associated with its use. DESIGN:Cross-sectional study carried out in January and February 2008. SETTING:Primary health care. PARTICIPANTS:General practitioners registered all the RTI during a 3-week period using a template. PRINCIPAL MEASUREMENTS:Age and gender, days with symptoms, signs presented (fever, cough, purulent ear discharge, sore throat, tonsillar exudate, swollen neck glands, dyspnoea, increase in sputum, purulent sputum), diagnosis, antibiotic therapy and demand of antibiotics. A logistic regression with the prescription of antibiotic as the dependent variable was performed. RESULTS:Out of the 332 physicians invited to participate, 309 filled in and returned the templates (93.1%), registering 16,751 RTIs, with the common cold (39.7%), pharyngitis (14.4%) and acute bronchitis (12.6%) being the most common. Antibiotic therapy was given to 4,675 RTIs (27.9%), mainly for pneumonia (89.9%), tonsillitis (88.9%), and otitis media (87.3%). The criterion most associated with antibiotic therapy was the presence of tonsillar exudate (OR: 32.1; 95CI%: 24.5-42), followed by ear discharge (25.2; 95%CI: 18.2-35) and purulence of sputum (18.1; 95%CI: 15.5-21.2); conversely, cough (OR: 0.4; 95%CI: 0.3-0.5) was considered as protective factor. DISCUSSION:Antibiotic treatment for RTIs is very high in our country. This study provides information on the criteria that predict this antibiotic therapy and is important to take into account if a more rational use of antibiotics is required.
| S-EPMC7022111 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Antibiotic use is a modifiable driver of antibiotic resistance. In many circumstances, antibiotic use is overly broad or unnecessary. We systematically assessed factors associated with antibiotic prescribing for respiratory tract infections (RTI). Studies were included if they used actual (not self-reported or intended) prescribing data, assessed factors associated with antibiotic prescribing for RTIs, and performed multivariable analysis of associations. We searched Medline, Embase, and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts using keyword and MeSH (medical subject headings) search terms. Two authors reviewed each abstract and independently appraised all included texts. Data on factors affecting antibiotic prescribing were extracted. Our searches retrieved a total of 2,848 abstracts, with 97 included in full-text review and 28 meeting full inclusion criteria. Compared to other factors, diagnosis of acute bronchitis was associated with increased antibiotic prescribing (range of adjusted odds ratios [aOR], 1.56 to 15.9). Features on physical exam, such as fever, purulent sputum, abnormal respiratory exam, and tonsillar exudate, were also associated with higher odds of antibiotic prescribing. Patient desire for an antibiotic was not associated or was modestly associated with prescription (range of aORs, 0.61 to 9.87), in contrast to physician perception of patient desire for antibiotics, which showed a stronger association (range of aORs, 2.11 to 23.3). Physician's perception of patient desire for antibiotics was strongly associated with antibiotic prescribing. Antimicrobial stewardship programs should continue to expand in the outpatient setting and should emphasize clear and direct communication between patients and physicians, as well as signs and symptoms that do and do not predict bacterial etiology of upper respiratory tract infections.
| S-EPMC4914667 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo assess the overall effect of delayed antibiotic prescribing on average symptom severity for patients with respiratory tract infections in the community, and to identify any factors modifying this effect.DesignSystematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.Data sourcesCochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, EBSCO CINAHL Plus, and Web of Science.Eligibility criteria for study selectionRandomised controlled trials and observational cohort studies in a community setting that allowed comparison between delayed versus no antibiotic prescribing, and delayed versus immediate antibiotic prescribing.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome was the average symptom severity two to four days after the initial consultation measured on a seven item scale (ranging from normal to as bad as could be). Secondary outcomes were duration of illness after the initial consultation, complications resulting in admission to hospital or death, reconsultation with the same or worsening illness, and patient satisfaction rated on a Likert scale.ResultsData were obtained from nine randomised controlled trials and four observational studies, totalling 55 682 patients. No difference was found in follow-up symptom severity (seven point scale) for delayed versus immediate antibiotics (adjusted mean difference -0.003, 95% confidence interval -0.12 to 0.11) or delayed versus no antibiotics (0.02, -0.11 to 0.15). Symptom duration was slightly longer in those given delayed versus immediate antibiotics (11.4 v 10.9 days), but was similar for delayed versus no antibiotics. Complications resulting in hospital admission or death were lower with delayed versus no antibiotics (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.30 to 1.27) and delayed versus immediate antibiotics (0.78, 0.53 to 1.13). A significant reduction in reconsultation rates (odds ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.87) and an increase in patient satisfaction (adjusted mean difference 0.09, 0.06 to 0.11) were observed in delayed versus no antibiotics. The effect of delayed versus immediate antibiotics and delayed versus no antibiotics was not modified by previous duration of illness, fever, comorbidity, or severity of symptoms. Children younger than 5 years had a slightly higher follow-up symptom severity with delayed antibiotics than with immediate antibiotics (adjusted mean difference 0.10, 95% confidence interval 0.03 to 0.18), but no increased severity was found in the older age group.ConclusionsDelayed antibiotic prescribing is a safe and effective strategy for most patients, including those in higher risk subgroups. Delayed prescribing was associated with similar symptom duration as no antibiotic prescribing and is unlikely to lead to poorer symptom control than immediate antibiotic prescribing. Delayed prescribing could reduce reconsultation rates and is unlikely to be associated with an increase in symptoms or illness duration, except in young children.Study registrationPROSPERO CRD42018079400.
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