The effect of sample size on polygenic hazard models for prostate cancer.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Karunamuni RA
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7608255 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Genetic models for cancer have been evaluated using almost exclusively European data, which could exacerbate health disparities. A polygenic hazard score (PHS1) is associated with age at prostate cancer diagnosis and improves screening accuracy in Europeans. Here, we evaluate performance of PHS2 (PHS1, adapted for OncoArray) in a multi-ethnic dataset of 80,491 men (49,916 cases, 30,575 controls). PHS2 is associated with age at diagnosis of any and aggressive (Gleason score ≥ 7, stage T3-T4, PSA ≥ 10 ng/mL, or nodal/distant metastasis) cancer and prostate-cancer-specific death. Associations with cancer are significant within European (n = 71,856), Asian (n = 2,382), and African (n = 6,253) genetic ancestries (p < 10-180). Comparing the 80th/20th PHS2 percentiles, hazard ratios for prostate cancer, aggressive cancer, and prostate-cancer-specific death are 5.32, 5.88, and 5.68, respectively. Within European, Asian, and African ancestries, hazard ratios for prostate cancer are: 5.54, 4.49, and 2.54, respectively. PHS2 risk-stratifies men for any, aggressive, and fatal prostate cancer in a multi-ethnic dataset.
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Project description:Polygenic hazard score (PHS) models are associated with age at diagnosis of prostate cancer. Our model developed in Europeans (PHS46) showed reduced performance in men with African genetic ancestry. We used a cross-validated search to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that might improve performance in this population. Anonymized genotypic data were obtained from the PRACTICAL consortium for 6253 men with African genetic ancestry. Ten iterations of a 10-fold cross-validation search were conducted to select SNPs that would be included in the final PHS46+African model. The coefficients of PHS46+African were estimated in a Cox proportional hazards framework using age at diagnosis as the dependent variable and PHS46, and selected SNPs as predictors. The performance of PHS46 and PHS46+African was compared using the same cross-validated approach. Three SNPs (rs76229939, rs74421890 and rs5013678) were selected for inclusion in PHS46+African. All three SNPs are located on chromosome 8q24. PHS46+African showed substantial improvements in all performance metrics measured, including a 75% increase in the relative hazard of those in the upper 20% compared to the bottom 20% (2.47-4.34) and a 20% reduction in the relative hazard of those in the bottom 20% compared to the middle 40% (0.65-0.53). In conclusion, we identified three SNPs that substantially improved the association of PHS46 with age at diagnosis of prostate cancer in men with African genetic ancestry to levels comparable to Europeans.
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Project description:ObjectivesTo develop and validate a genetic tool to predict age of onset of aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) and to guide decisions of who to screen and at what age.DesignAnalysis of genotype, PCa status, and age to select single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diagnosis. These polymorphisms were incorporated into a survival analysis to estimate their effects on age at diagnosis of aggressive PCa (that is, not eligible for surveillance according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines; any of Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA (prostate specific antigen) concentration ≥10 ng/L, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis). The resulting polygenic hazard score is an assessment of individual genetic risk. The final model was applied to an independent dataset containing genotype and PSA screening data. The hazard score was calculated for these men to test prediction of survival free from PCa.SettingMultiple institutions that were members of international PRACTICAL consortium.ParticipantsAll consortium participants of European ancestry with known age, PCa status, and quality assured custom (iCOGS) array genotype data. The development dataset comprised 31 747 men; the validation dataset comprised 6411 men.Main outcome measuresPrediction with hazard score of age of onset of aggressive cancer in validation set.ResultsIn the independent validation set, the hazard score calculated from 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms was a highly significant predictor of age at diagnosis of aggressive cancer (z=11.2, P<10-16). When men in the validation set with high scores (>98th centile) were compared with those with average scores (30th-70th centile), the hazard ratio for aggressive cancer was 2.9 (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 3.4). Inclusion of family history in a combined model did not improve prediction of onset of aggressive PCa (P=0.59), and polygenic hazard score performance remained high when family history was accounted for. Additionally, the positive predictive value of PSA screening for aggressive PCa was increased with increasing polygenic hazard score.ConclusionsPolygenic hazard scores can be used for personalised genetic risk estimates that can predict for age at onset of aggressive PCa.
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Project description:PurposeTo develop and evaluate the performance of a polygenic risk score (PRS) constructed in a Korean male population to predict clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa).Materials and methodsTotal 2,702 PCa samples and 7,485 controls were used to discover csPCa susceptible single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Males with biopsy-proven or post-radical prostatectomy Gleason score 7 or higher were included for analysis. After genotype imputation for quality control, logistic regression models were applied to test association and calculate effect size. Extracted candidate SNPs were further tested to compare predictive performance according to number of SNPs included in the PRS. The best-fit model was validated in an independent cohort of 311 cases and 822 controls.ResultsOf the 83 candidate SNPs with significant PCa association reported in previous literature, rs72725879 located in PRNCR1 showed the highest significance for PCa risk (odds ratio, 0.597; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.555-0.641; p=4.3×10-45). Thirty-two SNPs within 26 distinct loci were further selected for PRS construction. Best performance was found with the top 29 SNPs, with AUC found to be 0.700 (95% CI, 0.667-0.734). Males with very-high PRS (above the 95th percentile) had a 4.92-fold increased risk for csPCa.ConclusionsEthnic-specific PRS was developed and validated in Korean males to predict csPCa susceptibility using the largest csPCa sample size in Asia. PRS can be a potential biomarker to predict individual risk. Future multi-ethnic trials are required to further validate our results.
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Project description:Identifying asymptomatic older individuals at elevated risk for developing Alzheimer disease (AD) is of clinical importance. Among 1,081 asymptomatic older adults, a recently validated polygenic hazard score (PHS) significantly predicted time to AD dementia and steeper longitudinal cognitive decline, even after controlling for APOE ɛ4 carrier status. Older individuals in the highest PHS percentiles showed the highest AD incidence rates. PHS predicted longitudinal clinical decline among older individuals with moderate to high Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (amyloid) and Braak (tau) scores at autopsy, even among APOE ɛ4 noncarriers. Beyond APOE, PHS may help identify asymptomatic individuals at highest risk for developing Alzheimer neurodegeneration. Ann Neurol 2017;82:484-488.
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