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Income, consumer preferences, and the future of livestock-derived food demand

ABSTRACT: In recent decades there has been a sustained and substantial shift in human diets across the globe towards including more livestock-derived foods. Continuing debates scrutinize how these dietary shifts affect human health, the natural environment, and livelihoods. However, amidst these debates there remain unanswered questions about how demand for livestock-derived foods may evolve over the upcoming decades for a range of scenarios for key drivers of change including human population, income, and consumer preferences. Future trends in human population and income in our scenarios were sourced from three of the shared socioeconomic pathways. We used scenario-based modeling to show that average protein demand for red meat (beef, sheep, goats, and pork), poultry, dairy milk, and eggs across the globe would increase by 14% per person and 38% in total between the year 2020 and the year 2050 if trends in income and population continue along a mid-range trajectory. The fastest per person rates of increase were 49% in South Asia and 55% in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that per person demand for red meat in high-income countries would decline by 2.8% if income elasticities of demand (a partial proxy for consumer preferences, based on the responsiveness of demand to income changes) in high-income countries decline by 100% by 2050 under a mid-range trajectory for per person income growth, compared to their current trajectory. Prices are an important driver of demand, and our results demonstrate that the result of a decline in red meat demand in high-income countries is strongly related to rising red meat prices, as projected by our scenario-based modeling. If the decline in the income elasticity of demand occurred in all countries rather than only in high-income countries, then per person red meat demand in high-income countries would actually increase in 2050 by 8.9% because the income elasticity-driven decline in global demand reduces prices, and the effect of lower prices outweighs the effect of a decline in the income elasticity of demand. Our results demonstrate the importance of interactions between income, prices, and the income elasticity of demand in projecting future demand for livestock-derived foods. We complement the existing literature on food systems and global change by providing quantitative evidence about the possible space for the future demand of livestock-derived foods, which has important implications for human health and the natural environment.

SUBMITTER: Komarek A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7612057 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Food safety is a global public health issue, which often arises from asymmetric information between consumers and suppliers. With the development of information technology in human life, building a food traceability information sharing platform is viewed as one of the best ways to overcome the trust crisis and resolve the problem of information asymmetry in China. However, among the myriad information available from the food supply chain, there is a lack of knowledge on consumer preference. Based on the best-worst scaling approach, this paper investigated consumer preferences for vegetable, pork, and dairy product traceability information. Specifically, this paper measured the relative importance that consumers place on the traceable information. The results indicate that consumers have varying priorities for information in different cases. "Pesticide/veterinary use," "picking/slaughtering date," and "fertilizer/feed use" are the most preferred traceable information for Chinese consumers in the case of vegetables, while "picking/slaughtering date" and "history of illness and taking protective measures" are the most preferred information in the case of pork. In the case of dairy products, consumers prefer "processing information," "environmental information of the origin," and "traceable tag certification information" most. The results of this study call for the direct involvement of the Chinese government in the food safety information sharing system as following. First, given consumers' diverse preferences, different types of traceable information should be recorded into the information sharing platform depending on food types. Second, the government could promote the step-by-step construction of such a platform based on the priority of consumers' preferences. Third, new technology should be applied to guarantee the reliability of traceable information. Finally, local preferences in terms of the way consumers receive and understand information should be taken into consideration.

Project description:BackgroundWe investigated the association between the consumer attitudes of European parents and their children's taste preferences and food choice. Furthermore, we studied whether the parental consumer attitudes were related to education level.MethodsThis analysis included 1,407 IDEFICS study children aged 6.0 to 11.8 years and from 7 European countries, who participated in the sensory taste perception module between 2007 and 2010. Parental consumer attitude was operationalized as 'trusting in foods known from advertisements' (trusting advertisements) and as 'not avoiding additives in food' (not avoiding additives). Parents reported their educational attainment and completed a food frequency questionnaire for their children. Consumption frequencies of sweet, fatty and processed foods as well as a healthy diet adherence score were calculated. Children performed fat, sweet and umami taste preference tests. Multivariable logistic models were used to analyse the association between parental consumer attitudes and their children's taste preference frequencies as well as parental education. Linear regression models were used to analyse the association between parental consumer attitudes and their children's food consumption.ResultsParental consumer attitudes were not associated with children's fat, sweet and umami taste preferences. Children of parents trusting advertisements consumed more frequently processed foods (? = 1.21, 95% CI: 0.49; 1.93). Children of parents not avoiding additives consumed more often sweet, fatty and processed foods and had a lower healthy diet adherence score (? = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.03; 3.70; ? = 2.27, 95% CI: 1.12; 3.43; ? = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.22; 1.59; ? = -2.87, 95% CI: -3.89; -1.85, respectively). Unfavourable parental consumer attitudes were associated with a lower parental education level across Europe (Compared to high education: Odds Ratio (OR) of trusting advertisements with medium education: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.77; 1.40; OR with low education: 2.01, 95% CI: 1.15; 3.54; OR of not avoiding additives with medium education: 1.91, 95% CI: 1.44; 2.54; OR with low education: 1.76, 95% CI: 0.96; 3.24).ConclusionsAcross Europe, unfavourable parental consumer attitudes are associated with a lower diet quality of their children. Parental consumer attitudes in turn were associated with their own level of education. This has implications for policy makers, interventions and health promotion programmes that aim to promote healthy eating.

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Income, consumer preferences, and the future of livestock-derived food demand

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