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Estimating the effect of focused donor registration efforts on the number of organ donors.

ABSTRACT: Waiting times for organs in the United States are long and vary widely across regions. Donor registration can increase the number of potential donors, but its effect on the actual number of organ transplants depends upon several factors. First among these factors is that deceased donor organ donation requires both that death occur in a way making recovery possible and that authorization to recover organs is obtained. We estimate the potential donor death rate and donor authorization rate conditional on potential donor death by donor registration status for each state and for key demographic groups. With this information, we then develop a simple measure of the value of a new donor registration. This combined measure using information on donor authorization rates and potential death rates varies widely across states and groups, suggesting that focusing registration efforts on high-value groups and locations can significantly increase the overall number of donors. Targeting high-value states raises 26.7 percent more donors than a uniform, nationwide registration effort. Our estimates can also be used to assess alternative, but complementary, policies such as protocols to improve authorization rates for non-registered potential donors.

SUBMITTER: Cardon JH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7641390 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating the effect of focused donor registration efforts on the number of organ donors.

Cardon James H JH Holbrook Jordan C JC Showalter Mark H MH

PloS one 20201104 11

Waiting times for organs in the United States are long and vary widely across regions. Donor registration can increase the number of potential donors, but its effect on the actual number of organ transplants depends upon several factors. First among these factors is that deceased donor organ donation requires both that death occur in a way making recovery possible and that authorization to recover organs is obtained. We estimate the potential donor death rate and donor authorization rate conditi ...[more]

PMID: 33147294

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Project description:ObjectiveThe Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS-supported Spectrum software package is used by most countries worldwide to monitor the HIV epidemic. In Spectrum, HIV incidence trends among adults (aged 15-49 years) are derived by either fitting to seroprevalence surveillance and survey data or generating curves consistent with case surveillance and vital registration data, such as historical trends in the number of newly diagnosed infections or AIDS-related deaths. This article describes development and application of the case surveillance and vital registration (CSAVR) tool for the 2019 estimate round.MethodsIncidence in CSAVR is either estimated directly using single logistic, double logistic, or spline functions, or indirectly via the 'r-logistic' model, which represents the (log-transformed) per-capita transmission rate using a logistic function. The propensity to get diagnosed is assumed to be monotonic, following a Gamma cumulative distribution function and proportional to mortality as a function of time since infection. Model parameters are estimated from a combination of historical surveillance data on newly reported HIV cases, mean CD4 at HIV diagnosis and estimates of AIDS-related deaths from vital registration systems. Bayesian calibration is used to identify the best fitting incidence trend and uncertainty bounds.ResultsWe used CSAVR to estimate HIV incidence, number of new diagnoses, mean CD4 at diagnosis and the proportion undiagnosed in 31 European, Latin American, Middle Eastern, and Asian-Pacific countries. The spline model appeared to provide the best fit in most countries (45%), followed by the r-logistic (25%), double logistic (25%), and single logistic models. The proportion of HIV-positive people who knew their status increased from about 0.31 [interquartile range (IQR): 0.10-0.45] in 1990 to about 0.77 (IQR: 0.50-0.89) in 2017. The mean CD4 at diagnosis appeared to be stable, at around 410 cells/μl (IQR: 224-567) in 1990 and 373 cells/μl (IQR: 174-475) by 2017.ConclusionRobust case surveillance and vital registration data are routinely available in many middle-income and high-income countries while HIV seroprevalence surveillance and survey data may be scarce. In these countries, CSAVR offers a simpler, improved approach to estimating and projecting trends in both HIV incidence and knowledge of HIV status.

Dataset Information

Estimating the effect of focused donor registration efforts on the number of organ donors.

Publications

Estimating the effect of focused donor registration efforts on the number of organ donors.

Similar Datasets

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