Dataset Information

Time-variant reproductive number of COVID-19 in Seoul, Korea.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:To estimate time-variant reproductive number (Rt) of coronavirus disease 19 based on either number of daily confirmed cases or their onset date to monitor effectiveness of quarantine policies. METHODS:Using number of daily confirmed cases from January 23, 2020 to March 22, 2020 and their symptom onset date from the official website of the Seoul Metropolitan Government and the district office, we calculated Rt using program R's package "EpiEstim". For asymptomatic cases, their symptom onset date was considered as -2, -1, 0, +1, and +2 days of confirmed date. RESULTS:Based on the information of 313 confirmed cases, the epidemic curve was shaped like 'propagated epidemic curve'. The daily Rt based on Rt_c peaked to 2.6 on February 20, 2020, then showed decreased trend and became <1.0 from March 3, 2020. Comparing both Rt from Rt_c and from the number of daily onset cases, we found that the pattern of changes was similar, although the variation of Rt was greater when using Rt_c. When we changed assumed onset date for asymptotic cases (-2 days to +2 days of the confirmed date), the results were comparable. CONCLUSIONS:Rt can be estimated based on Rt_c which is available from daily report of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Estimation of Rt would be useful to continuously monitor the effectiveness of the quarantine policy at the city and province levels.

SUBMITTER: Moon SG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7644928 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Time-variant reproductive number of COVID-19 in Seoul, Korea.

Moon Seong-Geun SG Kim Yeon-Kyung YK Son Woo-Sik WS Kim Jong-Hoon JH Choi Jungsoon J Na Baeg-Ju BJ Park Boyoung B Choi Bo Youl BY

Epidemiology and health 20200628

<h4>Objectives</h4>To estimate time-variant reproductive number (Rt) of coronavirus disease 19 based on either number of daily confirmed cases or their onset date to monitor effectiveness of quarantine policies.<h4>Methods</h4>Using number of daily confirmed cases from January 23, 2020 to March 22, 2020 and their symptom onset date from the official website of the Seoul Metropolitan Government and the district office, we calculated Rt using program R's package "EpiEstim". For asymptomatic cases, ...[more]

PMID: 32660220

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Project description:Both domestic emissions and transported pollutants from neighboring countries affect the ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration of Seoul, Korea. Diverse measures to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), such as social distancing and increased telecommuting in Korea and the stringent lockdown measures of China, may reduce domestic emissions and levels of transported pollutants, respectively. In addition, wearing a particulate-filtering respirator may have decreased the absolute PM2.5 exposure level for individuals. Therefore, this study estimated the acute health benefits of PM2.5 reduction and changes in public behavior during the COVID-19 crisis in Seoul, Korea. To calculate the mortality burden attributable to PM2.5, we obtained residents' registration data, mortality data, and air pollution monitoring data for Seoul from publicly available databases. Relative risks were derived from previous time-series studies. We used the attributable fraction to estimate the number of excessive deaths attributable to acute PM2.5 exposure during January to April, yearly, from 2016 to 2020, and the number of mortalities avoided from PM2.5 reduction and respirator use observed in 2020. The average PM2.5 concentration from January to April in 2020 (25.6 μg/m3) was the lowest in the last 5 years. At least -4.1 μg/m3 (95% CI: -7.2, -0.9) change in ambient PM2.5 in Seoul was observed in 2020 compared to the previous 4 years. Overall, 37.6 (95% CI: 32.6, 42.5) non-accidental; 7.0 (95% CI: 5.7, 8.4) cardiovascular; and 4.7 (95% CI: 3.4, 6.1) respiratory mortalities were avoided due to PM2.5 reduction in 2020. By considering the effects of particulate respirator, decreases of 102.5 (95% CI: 89.0, 115.9) non-accidental; 19.1 (95% CI: 15.6, 22.9) cardiovascular; and 12.9 (95% CI: 9.2, 16.5) respiratory mortalities were estimated. We estimated that 37 lives were saved due to the PM2.5 reduction related to COVID-19 in Seoul, Korea. The health benefit may be greater due to the popular use of particulate-filtering respirators during the COVID-19 crisis. Future studies with daily mortality data are needed to verify our study estimates.

Dataset Information

Time-variant reproductive number of COVID-19 in Seoul, Korea.

Publications

Time-variant reproductive number of COVID-19 in Seoul, Korea.

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