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Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities.

ABSTRACT: The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7-96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.

SUBMITTER: Zanatta F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7645420 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities.

Zanatta F F Engler R R Collart F F Broennimann O O Mateo R G RG Papp B B Muñoz J J Baurain D D Guisan A A Vanderpoorten A A

Nature communications 20201105 1

The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte speci ...[more]

PMID: 33154374

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Project description:IntroductionThe dramatic fluctuations of climate conditions since the late Tertiary era have resulted in major species range shifts. These movements were conditioned by geographic barriers and species dispersal capacities. In land plants, gene flow occurs through the movement of male gametes (sperm cells, pollen grains), which carry nDNA, and diaspores (spores, seeds), which carry both cpDNA and nDNA, making them an ideal model to compare the imprints of past climate change on the spatial genetic structures of different genomic compartments. Based on a meta-analysis of cpDNA and nDNA sequence data in western Europe, we test the hypotheses that nDNA genetic structures are similar in bryophytes and spermatophytes due to the similar size of spores and pollen grains, whereas genetic structures derived from the analysis of cpDNA are significantly stronger in spermatophytes than in bryophytes due to the substantially larger size of seeds as compared to spores.MethodsSequence data at 1-4 loci were retrieved for 11 bryophyte and 17 spermatophyte species across their entire European range. Genetic structures between and within southern and northern populations were analyzed through F and N statistics and Mantel tests.Results and discussionGst and Nst between southern and northern Europe derived from cpDNA were significantly higher, and the proportion of significant tests was higher in spermatophytes than in bryophytes. This suggests that in the latter, migrations across mountain ranges were sufficient to maintain a homogenous allelic structure across Europe, evidencing the minor role played by mountain ranges in bryophyte migrations. With nDNA, patterns of genetic structure did not significantly differ between bryophytes and spermatophytes, in line with the hypothesis that spores and pollen grains exhibit similar dispersal capacities due to their size similarity. Stronger levels of genetic differentiation between southern and northern Europe, and within southern Europe, in spermatophytes than in bryophytes, caused by higher long-distance dispersal capacities of spores as compared to seeds, may account for the strikingly higher levels of endemism in spermatophytes than in bryophytes in the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot.

Project description:BackgroundGlobally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans.ObjectivesWe produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe.MethodsA process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios.ResultsOur primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results.ConclusionsOur quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.

Dataset Information

Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities.

Publications

Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities.

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