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Cross-national variations in COVID-19 outbreak in West Africa: Where does Nigeria stand in the pandemic?

ABSTRACT: Nigeria is currently the worst COVID-19 affected country in West Africa in terms of morbidity and mortality amid ECOWAS’s recent proclamation of the country as the region’s COVID-19 Response Champion. It is against this background that this paper analysed the geographical distribution of confirmed COVID-19 cases and fatalities in West Africa, with a view to understanding why Nigeria is at the heart of the pandemic in the sub-continent. The research relied on COVID-19 data and other health, demographic, transport, economic indicators from published sources. Pearson correlation technique and simple linear regressions were useful in discerning associations between COVID-19 and explanatory factors in West Africa. In order of importance, Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal were the top three on the morbidity list while Nigeria, Mali and Niger had the largest number of fatalities as at June 11, 2020. Results show that the population size and air traffic had significant impact on both COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in West Africa. In addition, Nigeria’s large population size and high air traffic volume did not only increase its susceptibility to the viral infection but also accounted for its being an outlier in the sub-continent. The study recommends that a cautious and gradual reopening of the borders should be considered by member states of the sub-region while behavioural avoidance measures are being enforced till a vaccine is found. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s41324-020-00371-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

SUBMITTER: Osayomi T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7649039 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionFour years after the devastating Ebola outbreak, governments in West Africa were quick to implement non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2. The NPIs implemented included physical distancing, closure of schools and businesses, restrictions on public gatherings and mandating the use of face masks among others. In the absence of widely available vaccinations, NPIs were the only known means to try to slow the spread of COVID-19. While numerous studies have assessed the effectiveness of these NPIs in high-income countries, less is known about the processes that lead to the adoption of policies and the factors that influence their implementation and adherence in low-income and middle-income countries. The objective of this scoping review is to understand the extent and type of evidence in relation to the policy formulation, decision-making and implementation stages of NPIs in West Africa.Methods and analysisA scoping review will be undertaken following the guidance developed by Arskey and O'Malley, the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) methodology for scoping reviews and the PRISMA guidelines for Scoping Reviews. Both peer-reviewed and grey literature will be searched using Web of Science, Embase, Scopus, APA PsycInfo, WHO Institutional Repository for Information Sharing, JSTOR and Google Advanced Search, and by searching the websites of the WHO, and the West African Health Organisation. Screening will be conducted by two reviewers based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, and data will be extracted, coded and narratively synthesised.Ethics and disseminationWe started this scoping review in May 2023, and anticipate finishing by April 2024. Ethics approval is not required since we are not collecting primary data. This protocol was registered at Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/gvek2/). We plan to disseminate this research through publications, conference presentations and upcoming West African policy dialogues on pandemic preparedness and response.

Project description:BackgroundAt the end of December 2019, the world in general and Wuhan, the industrial hub of China, in particular, experienced the COVID-19 pandemic. Massive increment of cases and deaths occurred in China and 209 countries in Europe, America, Australia, Asia and Pakistan. Pakistan was first hit by COVID-19 when a case was reported in Karachi on 26 February 2020. Several methods were presented to model the death rate due to the COVID-19 pandemic and to forecast the pinnacle of reported deaths. Still, these methods were not used in identifying the first day when Pakistan enters or exits the early exponential growth phase.ObjectiveThe present study intends to monitor variations in deaths and identify the growth phases such as pre-growth, growth, and post-growth phases in Pakistan due to the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsNew approaches are needed that display the death patterns and signal an alarming situation so that corrective actions can be taken before the condition worsens. To meet this purpose, secondary data on daily reported deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic have been considered, and the $c$ and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts are used To meet this purpose, secondary data on daily reported deaths in Pakistan due to the COVID-19 pandemic have been considered. The $ c$ and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts have been used for monitoring variations.ResultsThe chart shows that Pakistan switches from the pre-growth to the growth phase on 31 March 2020. The EWMA chart demonstrates that Pakistan remains in the growth phase from 31 March 2020 to 17 August 2020, with some indications signaling a decrease in deaths. It is found that Pakistan moved to a post-growth phase for a brief period from 27 July 2020 to 28 July 2020. Pakistan switches to re-growth phase with an alarm on 31/7/2020, right after the short-term post-growth phase. The number of deaths starts decreasing in August in that Pakistan may approach the post-growth phase shortly.ConclusionThis amalgamation of control charts illustrates a systematic implementation of the charts for government leaders and forefront medical teams to facilitate the rapid detection of daily reported deaths due to COVID-19. Besides government and public health officials, it is also the public's responsibility to follow the enforced standard operating procedures as a temporary remedy of this pandemic in ensuring public safety while awaiting a suitable vaccine to be discovered.

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Cross-national variations in COVID-19 outbreak in West Africa: Where does Nigeria stand in the pandemic?

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