Dataset Information

A spatio-temporal agent-based approach for modeling the spread of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in northeast Iran.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is a neglected tropical disease worldwide, especially the Middle East. Although previous works attempt to model the ZCL spread using various environmental factors, the interactions between vectors (Phlebotomus papatasi), reservoir hosts, humans, and the environment can affect its spread. Considering all of these aspects is not a trivial task.

Methods

An agent-based model (ABM) is a relatively new approach that provides a framework for analyzing the heterogeneity of the interactions, along with biological and environmental factors in such complex systems. The objective of this research is to design and develop an ABM that uses Geospatial Information System (GIS) capabilities, biological behaviors of vectors and reservoir hosts, and an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model to explore the spread of ZCL. Various scenarios were implemented to analyze the future ZCL spreads in different parts of Maraveh Tappeh County, in the northeast region of Golestan Province in northeastern Iran, with alternative socio-ecological conditions.

Results

The results confirmed that the spread of the disease arises principally in the desert, low altitude areas, and riverside population centers. The outcomes also showed that the restricting movement of humans reduces the severity of the transmission. Moreover, the spread of ZCL has a particular temporal pattern, since the most prevalent cases occurred in the fall. The evaluation test also showed the similarity between the results and the reported spatiotemporal trends.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the capability and efficiency of ABM to model and predict the spread of ZCL. The results of the presented approach can be considered as a guide for public health management and controlling the vector population .

SUBMITTER: Tabasi M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7659076 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:With several decades of concerted control efforts, visceral leishmaniasis(VL) eradication had almost been achieved in China. However, VL cases continue to be detected in parts of western China recent years. Using data of reported cases, this study aimed to investigate the epidemiology and spatio⁃temporal distribution, of mountain-type zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (MT-ZVL) in China between the years 2015 and 2019. Epidemiological data pertaining to patients with visceral leishmaniasis (VL) were collected in Gansu, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Shanxi, Henan and Hebei provinces between the years 2015 and 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to determine changes in the epidemic trend of MT-ZVL within the time period during which data was collected. Spatial autocorrelation of infection was examined using the Global Moran's I statistic wand hotspot analysis was carried out using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Spatio-temporal clustering analysis was conducted using the retrospective space-time permutation flexible spatial scanning statistics. A total of 529 cases of MT-ZVL were detected in the six provinces from which data were collected during the study time period, predominantly in Gansu (55.0%), Shanxi (21.7%), Shaanxi (12.5%) and Sichuan (8.9%) provinces. A decline in VL incidence in China was observed during the study period, whereas an increase in MT-ZVL incidence was observed in the six provinces from which data was obtained (t = 4.87, P < 0.05), with highest incidence in Shanxi province (t = 16.91, P < 0.05). Significant differences in the Moran's I statistic were observed during study time period (P < 0.05), indicating spatial autocorrelation in the spatial distribution of MT-ZVL. Hotspot and spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed clustering of infection cases in the Shaanxi-Shanxi border areas and in east of Shanxi province, where transmission increased rapidly over the study duration, as well as in well know high transmission areas in the south of Gansu province and the north of the Sichuan province. It indicates resurgence of MT-ZVL transmission over the latter three years of the study. Spatial clustering of infection was observed in localized areas, as well as sporadic outbreaks of infection.