Dataset Information

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Modeling Study of Factors Driving Variation in Case Fatality Rate by Country.

ABSTRACT: Background: The novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 has led to a global pandemic in which case fatality rate (CFR) has varied from country to country. This study aims to identify factors that may explain the variation in CFR across countries. Methods: We identified 24 potential risk factors affecting CFR. For all countries with over 5000 reported COVID-19 cases, we used country-specific datasets from the WHO, the OECD, and the United Nations to quantify each of these factors. We examined univariable relationships of each variable with CFR, as well as correlations among predictors and potential interaction terms. Our final multivariable negative binomial model included univariable predictors of significance and all significant interaction terms. Results: Across the 39 countries under consideration, our model shows COVID-19 case fatality rate was best predicted by time to implementation of social distancing measures, hospital beds per 1000 individuals, percent population over 70 years, CT scanners per 1 million individuals, and (in countries with high population density) smoking prevalence. Conclusion: Our model predicted an increased CFR for countries that waited over 14 days to implement social distancing interventions after the 100th reported case. Smoking prevalence and percentage population over the age of 70 years were also associated with higher CFR. Hospital beds per 1000 and CT scanners per million were identified as possible protective factors associated with decreased CFR.

SUBMITTER: Pan J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7664233 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Modeling Study of Factors Driving Variation in Case Fatality Rate by Country.

Pan Jennifer J St Pierre Joseph Marie JM Pickering Trevor A TA Demirjian Natalie L NL Fields Brandon K K BKK Desai Bhushan B Gholamrezanezhad Ali A

International journal of environmental research and public health 20201105 21

<i>Background:</i> The novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 has led to a global pandemic in which case fatality rate (CFR) has varied from country to country. This study aims to identify factors that may explain the variation in CFR across countries. <i>Methods:</i> We identified 24 potential risk factors affecting CFR. For all countries with over 5000 reported COVID-19 cases, we used country-specific datasets from the WHO, the OECD, and the United Nations to quantify each of th ...[more]

PMID: 33167564

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Project description:BackgroundJeju island had the seventh highest incidence rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but showed the lowest case fatality rate among 17 provinces of Korea, which may be associated with comorbidities and geographic differences. This study aimed to analyze the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 and evaluate the risk factors for severe COVID-19 in Jeju island, Korea.Materials and methodsAll patients with COVID-19 admitted between February 20, 2020, and June 19, 2021, at a single center were retrospectively enrolled in this study. The severity of illness was defined using five categories (asymptomatic, mild, moderate, severe, and critical) according to the National Institute of Health criteria. Then, patients with severe and critical illness were grouped into a severe group, whereas patients with asymptomatic, mild, and moderate illness were grouped into a non-severe group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed using risk factors that were found to be significantly associated with the severe group.ResultsThis study included 348 patients with a median age was 57 years, and 37.5% were aged 60 or older. Among them, 43.4% were male and 10.9% were asymptomatic, whereas 41.4%, 33.9%, 12.9%, and 1.1% had mild, moderate, severe, and critical illness. The all-cause mortality of patients with COVID-19 was 0.28% (1/348). Among confirmed patients with COVID-19, exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was mainly within Jeju island (75.9%). The mean body mass index was 24.09 ± 4.04 kg/m², the median comorbidity index score was low in each group (0 in asymptomatic; 1 in mild; 1 in moderate; 1 in severe; and 2 in critical group, P <0.548). In the multivariable analysis, male sex [odds ratio (OR), 6.37; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.69 - 15.13; P <0.001], ≥65 years of age (OR, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.18 - 6.10; P <0.019), chronic pulmonary disease (OR, 6.10; 95% CI, 1.40 - 26.61; P = 0.016), and length of fever duration (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.19 - 1.49; P <0.001) were independently associated with severe COVID-19.ConclusionThe most relevant risk factors of COVID-19 severity were male sex, older age, underlying chronic lung diseases, and duration of fever during hospitalization. The risk factors for severe COVID-19 were not significantly different from those reported in other studies. However, a lower proportion of the older population among confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases might contribute to the lower fatality rate than the national rate.

Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the COVID-19 case-fatality rate (CFR) globally.DesignPublicly available register-based ecological study.SettingTwo hundred and nine countries/territories in the world.ParticipantsAggregated data including 10 445 656 confirmed COVID-19 cases.Primary and secondary outcome measuresCOVID-19 CFR and crude cause-specific death rate were calculated using country-level data from the Our World in Data website.ResultsThe average of country/territory-specific COVID-19 CFR is about 2%-3% worldwide and higher than previously reported at 0.7%-1.3%. A doubling in size of a population is associated with a 0.48% (95% CI 0.25% to 0.70%) increase in COVID-19 CFR, and a doubling in the proportion of female smokers is associated with a 0.55% (95% CI 0.09% to 1.02%) increase in COVID-19 CFR. The open testing policies are associated with a 2.23% (95% CI 0.21% to 4.25%) decrease in CFR. The strictness of anti-COVID-19 measures was not statistically significantly associated with CFR overall, but the higher Stringency Index was associated with higher CFR in higher-income countries with active testing policies (regression coefficient beta=0.14, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.27). Inverse associations were found between cardiovascular disease death rate and diabetes prevalence and CFR.ConclusionThe association between population size and COVID-19 CFR may imply the healthcare strain and lower treatment efficiency in countries with large populations. The observed association between smoking in women and COVID-19 CFR might be due to the finding that the proportion of female smokers reflected broadly the income level of a country. When testing is warranted and healthcare resources are sufficient, strict quarantine and/or lockdown measures might result in excess deaths in underprivileged populations. Spatial dependence and temporal trends in the data should be taken into account in global joint strategy and/or policy making against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dataset Information

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Modeling Study of Factors Driving Variation in Case Fatality Rate by Country.

Publications

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Modeling Study of Factors Driving Variation in Case Fatality Rate by Country.

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