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Estimation of the true infection rate and infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in each country.

ABSTRACT: The True Infection Rate (TIR) in the whole population of each country and the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are unknown although they are important parameters. We devised a simple method to infer TIR and IFR based on the open data. The prevalence rate of the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests among the population (Examination Rate; ER) and the positive rate of PCR tests (Infection Rate; IR) for 66 countries were picked up at a website 5 times from April 10th to June 13th, 2020, and the trajectory of each country was drawn over the IR vs. ER plot. IR and ER showed a strong negative correlation for some countries, and TIR was estimated by extrapolating the regression line when the correlation coefficient was between -0.99 and -1. True/Identified Case Ratio (TICR) and IFR were also calculated using the estimated TIR. The estimated TIR well coincided with local antibody surveys. Estimated IFR took on a wide range of values up to 10%: generally high in the Western countries. The estimated IFR of Singapore was very low (0.018%), which may be related to the reported gene mutation causing the attenuation of the viral virulence.

SUBMITTER: Sonoo M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8704731 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimation of the true infection rate and infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in each country.

Sonoo Masahiro M Kanbayashi Takamichi T Shimohata Takayoshi T Kobayashi Masahito M Idogawa Masashi M Hayashi Hideyuki H

Journal of infection and public health 20211224 2

The True Infection Rate (TIR) in the whole population of each country and the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are unknown although they are important parameters. We devised a simple method to infer TIR and IFR based on the open data. The prevalence rate of the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests among the population (Examination Rate; ER) and the positive rate of PCR tests (Infection Rate; IR) for 66 countries were picked up at a website 5 times from April ...[more]

PMID: 34995898

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Project description:BackgroundJeju island had the seventh highest incidence rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but showed the lowest case fatality rate among 17 provinces of Korea, which may be associated with comorbidities and geographic differences. This study aimed to analyze the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 and evaluate the risk factors for severe COVID-19 in Jeju island, Korea.Materials and methodsAll patients with COVID-19 admitted between February 20, 2020, and June 19, 2021, at a single center were retrospectively enrolled in this study. The severity of illness was defined using five categories (asymptomatic, mild, moderate, severe, and critical) according to the National Institute of Health criteria. Then, patients with severe and critical illness were grouped into a severe group, whereas patients with asymptomatic, mild, and moderate illness were grouped into a non-severe group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed using risk factors that were found to be significantly associated with the severe group.ResultsThis study included 348 patients with a median age was 57 years, and 37.5% were aged 60 or older. Among them, 43.4% were male and 10.9% were asymptomatic, whereas 41.4%, 33.9%, 12.9%, and 1.1% had mild, moderate, severe, and critical illness. The all-cause mortality of patients with COVID-19 was 0.28% (1/348). Among confirmed patients with COVID-19, exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was mainly within Jeju island (75.9%). The mean body mass index was 24.09 ± 4.04 kg/m², the median comorbidity index score was low in each group (0 in asymptomatic; 1 in mild; 1 in moderate; 1 in severe; and 2 in critical group, P <0.548). In the multivariable analysis, male sex [odds ratio (OR), 6.37; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.69 - 15.13; P <0.001], ≥65 years of age (OR, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.18 - 6.10; P <0.019), chronic pulmonary disease (OR, 6.10; 95% CI, 1.40 - 26.61; P = 0.016), and length of fever duration (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.19 - 1.49; P <0.001) were independently associated with severe COVID-19.ConclusionThe most relevant risk factors of COVID-19 severity were male sex, older age, underlying chronic lung diseases, and duration of fever during hospitalization. The risk factors for severe COVID-19 were not significantly different from those reported in other studies. However, a lower proportion of the older population among confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases might contribute to the lower fatality rate than the national rate.

Dataset Information

Estimation of the true infection rate and infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in each country.

Publications

Estimation of the true infection rate and infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in each country.

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