Dataset Information

Obesity Prevalence in the Long-Term Future in 18 European Countries and in the USA.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:Obesity constitutes a major public health problem in Europe, but how the obesity epidemic in European countries will evolve remains unknown. Most previous obesity projections considered the short-term future only, focused on single non-European countries, and projected ongoing increases foremost. We comparatively project obesity prevalence into the long-term future for 18 European countries and the USA. DATA:We used national age-specific (20-84 years) and sex-specific obesity prevalence estimates (1975-2016) from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) 2017 study, which are based on available measured height and weight data, supplemented with estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model. METHODS:We projected age- and sex-specific obesity prevalence up to the year 2100 by integrating the notion of a wave-shaped obesity epidemic into conventional age-period projections. RESULTS:In 1990-2016, the increasing trends in obesity prevalence were decelerating. Obesity is expected to reach maximum levels between 2030 and 2052 among men, and between 2026 and 2054 among women. The maximum levels will likely be reached first in The Netherlands, USA, and UK, and last in Switzerland; and are expected to be highest in the USA and UK, and lowest in The Netherlands for men and Denmark for women. In 2060, obesity prevalence is expected to be lowest among Dutch men and highest among Swiss men. The projected age-specific obesity prevalence levels have an inverse U-shape, peaking at around the age of 60-69 years. DISCUSSION:Applying our novel approach to the NCD-RisC 2017 data, obesity prevalence is expected to reach maximum levels between 2026 and 2054, with the USA and UK reaching the highest maximum levels first, followed by other European countries.

SUBMITTER: Janssen F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7670332 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Obesity Prevalence in the Long-Term Future in 18 European Countries and in the USA.

Janssen Fanny F Bardoutsos Anastasios A Vidra Nikoletta N

Obesity facts 20201019 5

<h4>Introduction</h4>Obesity constitutes a major public health problem in Europe, but how the obesity epidemic in European countries will evolve remains unknown. Most previous obesity projections considered the short-term future only, focused on single non-European countries, and projected ongoing increases foremost. We comparatively project obesity prevalence into the long-term future for 18 European countries and the USA.<h4>Data</h4>We used national age-specific (20-84 years) and sex-specific ...[more]

PMID: 33075798

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Project description:BackgroundThe challenges posed by the rapidly ageing population, and the increased preponderance of disabled people in this group, coupled with the rising level of public expenditure required to service the complex organization of long term care (LTC) delivery are causing increased pressure on LTC systems in Europe. A pan-European survey was carried out to evaluate whether patterns of LTC can be identified across Europe and what are the trends of the countries along them.MethodsAn ecological study was conducted on the 27 EU Member States plus Norway and Iceland, referring to the period 2003-2007. Several variables related to organizational features, elderly needs and expenditure were drawn from OECD Health Data and the Eurostat Statistics database and combined using Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA).ResultsTwo global Principal Components were taken into consideration given that their expressed total variance was greater than 60%. They were interpreted according to the higher (more than 0.5) positive or negative correlation coefficients between them and the original variables; thus patterns of LTC were identified. High alignment between old age related expenditure and elderly needs characterizes Nordic and Western European countries, the former also having a higher level of formal care than the latter. Mediterranean as well as Central and South Eastern European countries show lower alignment between old age related expenditure and elderly needs, coupled with a level of provision of formal care that is around or slightly above the average European level. In the dynamic comparison, linear, stable or unclear trends were shown for the studied countries.ConclusionsThe analysis carried out is an explorative and descriptive study, which is an attempt to reveal patterns and trends of LTC in Europe, allowing comparisons between countries. It also stimulates further researches with lower aggregated data useful to gain meaningful policy-making evidence.Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/9/124.

Dataset Information

Obesity Prevalence in the Long-Term Future in 18 European Countries and in the USA.

Publications

Obesity Prevalence in the Long-Term Future in 18 European Countries and in the USA.

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