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Nomogram-derived prediction of pathologic complete response (pCR) in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Previous research results on the predictive factors of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) efficacy in breast cancer are inconsistent, suggesting that the ability of a single factor to predict efficacy is insufficient. Combining multiple potential efficacy-related factors to build a model may improve the accuracy of prediction. This study intends to explore the clinical and biological factors in breast cancer patients receiving NCT and to establish a nomogram that can predict the pathologic complete response (pCR) rate of NCT. METHODS:We selected 165 breast cancer patients receiving NCT from July 2017 to May 2019. Using pretreatment biopsy materials, immunohistochemical studies to assess estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER-2), and Ki-67 expression. The correlation between biological markers and pCR was analyzed. These predictors were used to develop a binary logistic regression model with cross-validation and to show the established predictive model with a nomogram. RESULTS:The nomogram for pCR based on lymphovascular invasion, anemia (hemoglobin?120?g/L), ER, Ki67 expression levels and NCT regimen had good discrimination performance (area under the curve [AUC], 0.758; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.675-0.841) and calibration coordination. According to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the calibration chart showed satisfactory agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities. The final prediction accuracy of cross-validation was 76%. CONCLUSIONS:We developed a nomogram based on multiple clinical and biological covariations that can provide an early prediction of NCT response and can help to quickly assess the individual benefits of NCT.

SUBMITTER: Pu S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7678042 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Nomogram-derived prediction of pathologic complete response (pCR) in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT).

Pu Shengyu S Wang Ke K Liu Yang Y Liao Xiaoqin X Chen Heyan H He Jianjun J Zhang Jian J

BMC cancer 20201119 1

<h4>Background</h4>Previous research results on the predictive factors of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) efficacy in breast cancer are inconsistent, suggesting that the ability of a single factor to predict efficacy is insufficient. Combining multiple potential efficacy-related factors to build a model may improve the accuracy of prediction. This study intends to explore the clinical and biological factors in breast cancer patients receiving NCT and to establish a nomogram that can predict the p ...[more]

PMID: 33213397

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Project description:BackgroundTo investigate the association of axillary pathologic complete response (pCR) rate among breast cancer patients with pCR after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT).MethodsThe retrospective clinical data of 1,903 patients who were treated with NCT between March, 2010 and December, 2018, were collected from one Chinese database and analyzed. The correlations between clinicopathological characteristics and breast pCR with axillary pCR were calculated by χ2 test. Binary logistic regression analysis was used for multivariate analysis. The relative risk of positive axillary nodes after NCT in patients with and without breast pCR was analyzed using a Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel (CMH) test stratified by initial N stage and tumor subtype.ResultsThe rate of axillary pCR was increased in the cases with initial cN0, Ki67 high expression, HR+HER2+/HR-HER2+/TN subtypes, and breast pCR. After NCT, the relative risk of nodal disease burden was 4.81 in patients without breast pCR compared with patients with breast pCR. The relative risk of positive nodal status in patients with cN0, cN1, cN2, and cN3 disease without vs. with breast pCR was 6.45, 4.88, 5.69 and 6.24, respectively. The relative risk of positive nodal status in patients with HR+HER2-, HR+HER2+, HR-HER2+, and TN disease was 4.02, 4.50, 3.82 and 4.18, respectively. Of cN0 patients with breast pCR, only 4 out of 44 (9%) with HER2-positive disease had 1 or 2 axillary lymph node metastases at final surgical pathology compared to 30 out of 98 (31%) of those without breast pCR. There was no evidence of positive nodal residue among all 21 patients (100%) with TN disease compared to 65% (36 of 55) of patients without breast pCR.ConclusionsNodal status is strongly correlated with breast pCR after NCT. Patients with initial cN0/1 TN/HER2 positive disease who achieve breast pCR at surgery have a low risk of nodal metastasis. These results suggest that the failure rate of missing positive lymph nodes among those patients was very low and that it is safe for such patients to undergo sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) after NCT. This study also provides a theoretical basis for clinical trials focused on the avoidance of axillary surgery in selected patients.

Project description:The purpose of this study is to develop a prediction model utilizing tumor hemoglobin parameters measured by ultrasound-guided near-infrared optical tomography (US-NIR) in conjunction with standard pathologic tumor characteristics to predict pathologic response before neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is given.Thirty-four patients' data were retrospectively analyzed using a multiple logistic regression model to predict response. These patients were split into 30 groups of training (24 tumors) and testing (12 tumors) for cross validation. Tumor vascularity was assessed using US-NIR measurements of total hemoglobin (tHb), oxygenated (oxyHb) and deoxygenated hemoglobin (deoxyHb) concentrations acquired before treatment. Tumor pathologic variables of tumor type, Nottingham score, mitotic index, the estrogen and progesterone receptors and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 acquired before NAC in biopsy specimens were also used in the prediction model. The patients' pathologic response was graded based on the Miller-Payne system. The overall performance of the prediction models was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The quantitative measures were sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC).Utilizing tumor pathologic variables alone, average sensitivity of 56.8%, average specificity of 88.9%, average PPV of 84.8%, average NPV of 70.9% and average AUC of 84.0% were obtained from the testing data. Among the hemoglobin predictors with and without tumor pathological variables, the best predictor was tHb combined with tumor pathological variables, followed by oxyHb with pathological variables. When tHb was included with tumor pathological variables as an additional predictor, the corresponding measures improved to 79%, 94%, 90%, 86% and 92.4%, respectively. When oxyHb was included with tumor variables as an additional predictor, these measures improved to 77%, 85%, 83%, 83% and 90.6%, respectively. The addition of tHb or oxyHb significantly improved the prediction sensitivity, NPV and AUC compared with using tumor pathological variables alone.These initial findings indicate that combining widely used tumor pathologic variables with hemoglobin parameters determined by US-NIR may provide a powerful tool for predicting patient pathologic response to NAC before the start of treatment.ClincalTrials.gov ID: NCT00908609 (registered 22 May 2009).

Project description:Simple Summary Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) followed with surgery is the standard strategy in the treatment of locally advanced breast cancer, but the individual efficacy varies. Early and accurate prediction of complete responders determines the NAC regimens and prognosis. Breast MRI has been recommended to monitor NAC response before, during, and after treatment. Radiomics has been heralded as a breakthrough in medicine and regarded to have changed the landscape of biomedical research in oncology. Delta-radiomics characterizing the change in feature values by applying radiomics to multiple time points, is a promising strategy for predicting response after NAC. In our study, the delta-radiomics model built with the change of radiomic features before and after one cycle NAC could effectively predict pathological complete response (pCR) in breast cancer. The model provides strong support for clinical decision-making at the earliest stage and helps patients benefit the most from NAC. Abstract Objective: To investigate the value of delta-radiomics after the first cycle of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) using dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI for early prediction of pathological complete response (pCR) in patients with breast cancer. Methods: From September 2018 to May 2021, a total of 140 consecutive patients (training, n = 98: validation, n = 42), newly diagnosed with breast cancer who received NAC before surgery, were prospectively enrolled. All patients underwent DCE-MRI at pre-NAC (pre-) and after the first cycle (1st-) of NAC. Radiomic features were extracted from the postcontrast early, peak, and delay phases. Delta-radiomics features were computed in each contrast phases. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and a logistic regression model were used to select features and build models. The model performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and compared by DeLong test. Results: The delta-radiomics model based on the early phases of DCE-MRI showed a highest AUC (0.917/0.842 for training/validation cohort) compared with that using the peak and delay phases images. The delta-radiomics model outperformed the pre-radiomics model (AUC = 0.759/0.617, p = 0.011/0.047 for training/validation cohort) in early phase. Based on the optimal model, longitudinal fusion radiomic models achieved an AUC of 0.871/0.869 in training/validation cohort. Clinical-radiomics model generated good calibration and discrimination capacity with AUC 0.934 (95%CI: 0.882, 0.986)/0.864 (95%CI: 0.746, 0.982) for training and validation cohort. Delta-radiomics based on early contrast phases of DCE-MRI combined clinicopathology information could predict pCR after one cycle of NAC in patients with breast cancer.

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Nomogram-derived prediction of pathologic complete response (pCR) in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT).

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Nomogram-derived prediction of pathologic complete response (pCR) in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT).

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