Effects of diurnal temperature range on first-ever strokes in different seasons: a time-series study in Shenzhen, China.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator of global climate change; high values of DTR may induce stroke morbidity, while the related high-risk periods and sensitive populations are not clear. This study aims to evaluate the effects of DTR on first-ever strokes in different seasons and in relation to sensitive populations.

Methods

We collected data on 142?569 first-ever strokes during 2005-2016 in Shenzhen. We fitted a time-series Poisson model in our study, estimating the associations between DTR and first-ever strokes, with a distributed lag non-linear model. Then, we calculated strokes attributable to high DTR in different genders, age groups, education levels and stroke subtypes.

Results

High DTR had a significant association with first-ever strokes, and the risk of stroke increased with the rise of DTR in the summer and winter. In total, 3.65% (95% empirical CI (eCI) 1.81% to 5.53%) of first-ever strokes were attributable to high DTR (5.5°C and higher) in the summer, while 2.42% (95% eCI 0.05% to 4.42%) were attributable to high DTR (8°C and higher) in the winter. In the summer, attributable fraction (AF) was significant in both genders, middle-aged and old patients, patients with different levels of education, as well as patients with cerebral infarction (CBI); in the winter, AF was significant in middle-aged patients, patients with primary and lower education level, as well as patients with CBI.

Conclusions

High DTR may trigger first-ever strokes in the summer and winter, and CBI is more sensitive than intracerebral haemorrhage to DTR. Most people are sensitive to high DTR in the summer, while middle-aged and low-education populations are sensitive in the winter. It is recommended that the DTR values be reported and emphasised in weather forecast services, together with the forecasts of heat and cold.

SUBMITTER: Lei L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7682471 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature