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Meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence in 190 countries: An observational study.

ABSTRACT: Novel corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in December 2019, has become a pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence and mortality worldwide. This study included 1,908,197 confirmed cases of and 119,257 deaths from COVID-19 from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April, 2020. We used a distributed lag non-linear model with city-/country-level random intercept to investigate the associations between COVID19 incidence and daily temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. A series of confounders were considered in the analysis including demographics, socioeconomics, geographic locations, and political strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the associations. The COVID-19 incidence showed a stronger association with temperature than with relative humidity or wind speed. An inverse association was identified between the COVID-19 incidence and temperature. The corresponding 14-day cumulative relative risk was 1.28 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20-1.36] at 5 °C, and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.86) at 22 °C with reference to the risk at 11 °C. An inverse J-shaped association was observed between relative humidity and the COVID-19 incidence, with the highest risk at 72%. A higher wind speed was associated with a generally lower incidence of COVID-19, although the associations were weak. Sensitivity analyses generally yielded similar results. The COVID-19 incidence decreased with the increase of temperature. Our study suggests that the spread of COVID-19 may slow during summer but may increase during winter.

SUBMITTER: Guo C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7682932 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Since the World Health Organization has declared the current outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a global pandemic, some have been anticipating that the mitigation could happen in the summer like seasonal influenza, while medical solutions are still in a slow progress. Experimental studies have revealed a few evidences that coronavirus decayed quickly under the exposure of heat and humidity. This study aims to carry out an epidemiological investigation to establish the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 in high risk areas of the United States (U.S.). We analyzed daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and seven meteorological measures in top 50 U.S. counties with the most accumulative confirmed cases from March 22, 2020 to April 22, 2020. Our analyses indicate that each meteorological factor and COVID-19 more likely have a nonlinear association rather than a linear association over the wide ranges of temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation observed. Average temperature, minimum relative humidity, and precipitation were better predictors to address the meteorological impact on COVID-19. By including all the three meteorological factors in the same model with their lagged effects up to 3 days, the overall impact of the average temperature on COVID-19 was found to peak at 68.45 °F and decrease at higher degrees, though the overall relative risk percentage (RR %) reduction did not become significantly negative up to 85 °F. There was a generally downward trend of RR % with the increase of minimum relative humidity; nonetheless, the trend reversed when the minimum relative humidity exceeded 91.42%. The overall RR % of COVID-19 climbed to the highest level of 232.07% (95% confidence interval?=?199.77, 267.85) with 1.60 inches of precipitation, and then started to decrease. When precipitation exceeded 1.85 inches, its impact on COVID-19 became significantly negative. Our findings alert people to better have self-protection during the pandemic rather than expecting that the natural environment can curb coronavirus for human beings.

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Meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence in 190 countries: An observational study.

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